Comment Central: the Wright danger

Barack Obama has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his pastor’s inflammatory remarks and the issue has become a serious threat to his presidential ambitions, polls suggest.

The surveys released yesterday point to an erosion of Mr Obama’s support among independents, a bloc that has previously backed him in overwhelming numbers, and particular alienation among white, working-class voters who will be critical to the general election in November.

They appear disturbed by the Illinois senator’s refusal to disown the Rev Jeremiah Wright in a keynote speech he delivered on Tuesday — an address that he was forced to give to try to defuse the outrage caused by the emergence of his former pastor’s videotaped, incendiary sermons.

A new national Gallup tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton regaining her lead over Mr Obama for the first time in a month, now leading 49 per cent to 42, a 13-point shift to the former First Lady in less than a fortnight.

Mrs Clinton also holds a 16-point lead over Mr Obama in Pennsylvania, their next contest on April 22. In addition, Mr Obama has lost his once-commanding lead among independent voters to John McCain, the Republican nominee, in a new CBS poll. The survey shows Mr McCain with leads over both Democrats, a sign of how their protracted battle threatens to damage the eventual nominee.

Despite praise for Mr Obama’s speech, when he used the controversy to challenge America to move beyond its current racial tensions, aides to Mrs Clinton believe that the Wright controversy offers the former First Lady perhaps her best chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

Republican strategists believe that the rage-filled sermons, in which Mr Wright declares “God damn America”, blames US foreign policy for the September 11 attacks, criticises Israel and levels racist insults against the Clintons, offers them a powerful way to destroy Mr Obama if he becomes the Democratic nominee. Mr Wright was the Illinois senator’s “spiritual mentor” for nearly two decades. After initial denials, Mr Obama admitted in Tuesday’s speech that he had witnessed "controversial” sermons.

Many Republicans who viewed Mrs Clinton as the easier candidate to beat in November are now reconsidering that opinion. Mr Wright’s comments are so appalling, they believe, that they are a political gift that will keep on giving if the Illinois senator becomes Mr McCain’s opponent. It is a fact Mrs Clinton’s aides are privately impressing upon the Democratic party’s so-called super-delegates — the congressmen, senators and officials now likely to determine the nomination.

A video, financed by a wealthy conservative, has appeared on YouTube, splicing together the pastor’s most incendiary comments, and footage including Mr Obama not putting his hand on his heart during the national anthem and images of Malcolm X.

Last night a member of Mr McCain’s campaign was suspended for circulating the video. A spokeswoman for Mr McCain said: “We have been very clear on the type of campaign we intend to run and this staffer acted in violation of our policy.”

Mrs Clinton’s chances of winning the nomination narrowed significantly this week when her efforts to force re-votes in the disputed primary states of Florida and Michigan appeared doomed. With only ten contests left Mr Obama has a virtually impregnable lead among elected delegates but neither candidate is likely to reach the 2,024 needed to clinch the nomination.

This means that the most important audience for both candidates are the super-delegates. Mr Obama is arguing that they should back the candidate who emerges with the most elected delegates — a powerful case that many senior Democrats, including the House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, favour.

Central to Mrs Clinton’s strategy is to persuade enough super-delegates that she is the more electable general election candidate. Her greatest chance of wooing super-delegates now is to shake their faith in Mr Obama’s electability, and Mr Wright has provided her with her best chance to do that.

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