During the Pennsylvania primary campaign, the contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama was frequently compared with the film Rocky. That is a massive underestimate of the character of this struggle. Sylvester Stallone, after all, only had to slug it out for 15 rounds. This battle instead better resembles another, actual, fight for a title. It occurred between Andy Bowen and Jack Burke in New Orleans on April 16, 1893 and lasted for 111 rounds before both fighters, having battered each other to bits, were incapable of emerging from their corners.

This one too really could go the distance. Mrs Clinton’s comfortable victory not only allows her to remain in the race but provides her with an opening that could result in an unlikely victory.

For the remaining territory in this race is potentially highly favourable to her. The next outing is in Guam on May 3 and there are only four delegates at stake but, for what it is worth, she is expected to win the most votes there. It is, however, but the smallest of starters between the next main course, the quest for votes in Indiana and North Carolina three days later.

Conventional wisdom has it that Indiana is tight (but essential for Mrs Clinton to take) while North Carolina should be just a breeze for Mr Obama.

A race like a crackpot Dynasty

The contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton matches any fiction

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The second of these suppositions is true. The first is much more dubious. It is based on very limited polling. Indiana might be adjacent to Mr Obama’s home state of Illinois but in most other respects it is more akin to Ohio and Pennsylvania. It has a smaller African-American population than either of these two states and is not noted for an unusually prominent number of younger electors (especially students) or wealthy liberals either. Chalk Indiana down for Mrs Clinton.

The roadshow then moves on to West Virginia. This state is arguably more dominated by older white electors without college degrees (the Clinton base) than any other in the country. It would be astonishing if she did not romp home by a striking margin.

A week after that (May 20) it is the turn of Kentucky and Oregon to join in the party. Kentucky is very similar to the states in which Mrs Clinton has recorded her best performances so far and there is every reason to assume this will continue. Oregon is a more intriguing case. It has a very modest African-American citizenry (less than two per cent of the total) but a more sizeable section of rich liberals. It will be extremely competitive but Mrs Clinton has a reasonable hope of prevailing.

After what will seem like about the 109th round of this epic duel, Puerto Rico holds its primary on June 1. Overwhelmingly Hispanic, it can also be expected to be overwhelmingly Clinton.

This takes us to the final two states of South Dakota and Montana. It has been argued in some circles that as the states which surround them backed Mr Obama earlier in proceedings, they will do so. Yet when Mr Obama won in Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota and Wyoming he did so in caucuses (formal party meetings where turnout is notoriously low). South Dakota and Montana, by contrast, are holding primaries which will involve far, far more electors and massively enhance Mrs Clinton’s prospects in both locations.

That takes us to the morning after (June 4). Mr Obama will still probably have a narrow lead in the total tally of pledged delegates. Mrs Clinton might well, nonetheless, be able to assert that she has won more delegates in the primaries than him (his lead even today is based on the caucuses), that she has overhauled him in the popular vote (particularly if Florida is included, which it should be as both of them were on the ballot) and that she has won eight or nine of the ten last contests and exposed her rival’s weakness in an absolutely critical category of voters (working-class whites). If you were a superdelegate (many of whom are members of Congress) which way would you jump in these conditions?

The referee at the close of the Bowen-Burke declared the result of the bout a “no contest”. This is not really an option for the Democratic Party.

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