Tom Baldwin in Washington
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Even as Democrats fret over the damage that the battle for the party’s presidential nomination has already done to their chances of regaining the White House, Hillary Clinton’s campaign is talking of a “nuclear option”.
If she wins in Indiana and does well enough in North Carolina in today’s crucial primaries, her campaign believes it may yet be able to overturn party rules that currently ban delegates awarded in her vexed “victories” in Florida and Michigan.
The theory is that it would help her to overtake Barack Obama in the popular vote, cut his lead among elected delegates to less than 100, and give wavering super-delegates an excuse to choose her as the presidential candidate in defiance of the results from Democratic primaries and caucuses.
There would, of course, be a high price to pay, with Mr Obama certain to challenge – all the way to the convention itself – any such effort to move the goalposts. One of his supporters, the former Senator Tom Daschle, gave warning yesterday that this would be a “disaster” and even a Democrat backing Mrs Clinton suggested privately that many would think twice about provoking a “fist fight over credentials” for the convention.
Although it is possible that Mr Obama could yet deliver a knock-out blow to Mrs Clinton tonight by winning a landslide in North Carolina and securing victory by any margin in Indiana, neither side really expects this. Mr Obama wearily told morning TV shows that the party would probably wait until after the last primaries on June 3 before making “a decision [on] who the Democratic nominee is going to be”. His campaign issued a memo emphasising the relentless logic of “the maths that shows he is now only 276 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination”.
Mrs Clinton claimed that after starting far behind Mr Obama in North Carolina and Indiana she had “closed the gap”, while her campaign sought to play down expectations about tonight’s results. Geoff Garin, chief strategist, said the campaign team “should be judged by the progress we have made in the past couple of weeks . . . we have got things moving in the right direction”.
But James Carville, a former adviser to Bill Clinton and a prominent supporter of her campaign, suggested that she had to do better than that, saying: “The onus is on her. If she wins Indiana and North Carolina, she’s the nominee. She’s got to shock the system and she may be shocking it.” Privately, even aides acknowledge that Mrs Clinton cannot make up all the ground that she lost against Mr Obama in the hunt for delegates unless votes from Florida and, perhaps, Michigan are counted.
The Democratic party leadership is refusing to seat the 366 delegates from Florida and Michigan because the two states broke rules by staging primaries too early. If Mrs Clinton can get some or all of them reinstated, she would not only hack a big slice off Mr Obama’s delegate lead but also catch him in the overall vote.
Mr Obama, whose name was not even on the ballot in Michigan and who did not campaign in Florida, has said that the only fair solution is to award delegates from these two states on a 50/50 basis. Mrs Clinton says that this would ignore the wishes of 2.5 million voters who took part in the primaries and “expect to have their voices heard”.
She will reprise the events of 2000 when Al Gore beat George Bush in the popular vote in the presidential election only to lose out among elected delegates. And she needs little invitation to remind the party of the lessons from that bitterly-contested campaign about the importance of winning states such as Florida, which ultimately handed the White House to Mr Bush.
The “nuclear option” could be deployed on May 31 at a meeting of the Democrats’ Rules and Bylaws Committee, where some reports suggest that Mrs Clinton has a built-in majority. But even if this is the case – and there are many who suggest it is not – there would still be hurdles for her to overcome. Mr Obama’s campaign would do its best to overturn the decision by appealing to a perhaps more sympathetic Convention Credentials Committee in August.
Howard Wolfson, Mrs Clinton’s spokesman, swatted away questions on the subject. “Anyone who can tell you that they know how this race plays out between now and the convention is likely to get it wrong,” he said. “We have seen constantly there have been twists and turns in the road and there are important contests to come between now and June 3.”
Indeed, Mrs Clinton’s best chance of getting any of the Florida or Michigan delegates seated is to keep winning and driving home her message that Mr Obama is a flawed, even unelectable, candidate.
It means continuing to focus over the next month and beyond on the nasty controversies over Mr Obama’s pastor, his comments about “bitter” small-town Americans, his apparent lack of enthusiasm for gun ownership – and just about anything else she can throw at him.
Mrs Clinton may relish her role as an aggressive populist warrior, or “no shrinking violet” as she puts it, but there are also signs that many Democrats are worried at the way this battle is being fought. For all his difficulties over the past fortnight, Mr Obama’s trickle of new super-delegate endorsements has still been bigger than that of Mrs Clinton.
A campaign that once crackled with historic potential has long since ceased to excite or amaze. Mr Obama may have been painted an elitist or even a “pansy” but at great cost to the reputation of Mrs Clinton herself. One poll yesterday suggested that 62 per cent of voters believe she only says “what she wants people to hear”. One Democrat said yesterday: “Fatigue is setting in, a lot of us just don’t want to be in a perpetual war.”
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First of all, let's see how the vote goes.
Beyond that, I shudder at the metaphor at the heart of this report. 'Nuclear option?'
Hillary has been playing with fire.
Ernest Werner, Trumansburg NY , USA
A Clinton presidency from Day 1 is a disaster , her campaign debt in less than 15 months, gross mismanagement. On the gas tax she is polarizing, never mind that it is universally unpopular, she is going to "fight" for it and you are with her or against her if u dont agree with her position.
Donna , Kingston, Jamaica
62% of voters believe Hillary says"what she wants people to hear. ...Give me a break! Obama is so limited in his knowledge that he can't even converse on most important topics. Hillary said we would blow-up Iran if they attached Israel....This was not popular but she took a stance!
Karl, Columbia, US
The saddest part of this campaign is that it has shown how the media has changed from reporting the facts fairly and not favoring any candidate.
Over the last two weeks the only coverage of the Obama campaign is negative, more press given to Hilary and Bill.
This is not fair reporting.
Nancy Foster, Round Rock, texas, united states
Barack Obama is very much the car sales man standing behind his badge of "change", very smooth and alluring and saying nice things about nice but unimportant features. The big question is can he "drive the car"? I have my doubts! He would have his head completely turned around in the White House.
Bruce Nielsen, Mt Gambier, Australia
I believe she is the best person to go forward and win!!!!!!!!!!!!!.This is not the right time for Sen. Obama.
WAyne Rabideau, keeseville, usa.
I like mr Obama and l know he will win thank you
alex, Nairobi, Kenya
Simple is best - She has the experience/expertise - has has three years in. What more? Why battle, he could be VP - that is where he really should be in this particular situaiton ......
Noreen, madison, usa
"Nuclear option" is a very poor term anywhere, anytime.
What we speak out can come to pass.
There are enough nations around the globe rubbing each other the wrong way as it is... some threatening, like North Korea, the "nuclear option".
We ALL need to watch our words in this aggro age!
G.Gibson, Sydney, Australia
Carville is right. If Clinton wins both states she will be the nominee. She will also have a good chance of winning the election; current polls show her ahead of McCain by eight points, whilst Obama is tied. The biggest argument for Obama as the nominee is history. Democrats like losers.
Andrew Pandap, New York City,
The Rev Wright Sound bite played on a loop, out of contex was done by FOX news to shock people into voting Hillary because they want McCain to win. So when Hillary get into the ring they will tear her to bits with her past,murder & rape scandals.&Monica Sex Scandals, McCain is ready for her.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
The Michigan and Florida voters went to the booth knowing that their vote would NOT count. That their voice was not "heard" is a result of internal Democratic party politics, not the fault of any campaign. Obama did not campaign in either State, nor was he on the ballot. Simple.
Brett, Boston, USA
The delegates from Florida and Michigan must be seated and their votes counted. Otherwise come Nov. both states will vote solidly for McCain. That Obama chose not to campaign - well, that was his choice.
Nona, New York City, USA
Remember the votes in the 2000 election. Don't let it happen again. If you do not count the votes made in Florida & Michigan you are disinfranchising those democratic voters.
Ted Lewinski, Monica, California, USA
It beggars belief that a party that made such a "Cause cellbre" of the pregnant chad should be so cavalier with the 2.5M voters of Florida & Michigan. What hypicrites. No wonder McCain is doing so well in the polls.Those voters should be counted no matter what embarrasing difficulties may occur.
Barry, London, UK
The only reason Clinton is in front is because the Media is destroying the entire election by focusing on the Wright scandle with Barack Obama. It's nothing but Racism. I'm glad Hilary's doing well, I'm a Hilary supporter, but I'd rather see her in front for being herself. Not playing up to the Medi
Sarah , Northern Ireland,
Will Mrs. Clinton promise to obliterate Israel if it attacks Iran with nuclear weapons? If not, why not?
Peter Berman, Wiveliscombe, UK
Congratulations to the Democrats. After the worst Presidency in history, you would think they could run a dog and he would win in November. The black candidate denies knowing what his minister of 20 years says, and Hillary will say anything. President McCain awaits.
richard block, London, uk
Barrack Obama is the best and honnest candidat to bring our country back on track, we must understand that befor its too late.
Rose Marie, Vermont, USA
If they do this, it could destroy the Democrats for a generation. Because Hilary is "moving in the right direction," they propose to ignore the voters and install her as the candidate? John McCain must be laughing so hard! The real joke is that Dems still like to talk of "stolen elections."
Nick, Rotherham, UK
One of these two candidates, Hillary Clinton, lies about ducking sniper fire and talks of obliterating (read nuking) a country she knows nothing about.
She is dangerous to America and the world, resembling the Iranian President whose country she would obliterate.
Dump the Little Rock Clintons
David, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Any attempt to seat the Michigan or Florida delegates would be blatantly unfair as Obama did not campaign in one and his name was absent from ballot papers for the other. It would be Mugabe-style democracy. Only a re-run of these contests would be acceptable, and that's already been ruled out.
Keith M C O'Sullivan, Canterbury, UK
God bless Lady Clinton & America that it finally does justice to the mom's gender by giving for the first time in the history of the presidency a chance to become the nominee of the dem. party & subsequently the president of USA. Why not as she is running neck & neck equally competitive/ qualified.
Ram Bahadur K.C., Kathmandu, Nepal.
why is it when clinton speaks out against obama it is seen as ssh will do anything yet when obama does the same it is ok? also it should be remembered that neither of them will have enough elected dellegates and the superdelegates were created to break a siution like this by voting independently.
al, san antonio,
Democrats should realize that in order to win the election, they should also consider the electibility of their candidate , Barack Obama as the nominee can hurt the chances of the democrat to be in the white house again.
lee, los angeles, usa