Tim Reid in Fairlea, West Virginia
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Bill Clinton stands on a small stage in this tiny town, torrential rain beating on the rooftop, his all-white crowd of coalminers, schoolteachers and union members cheering him on. “Don’t let them tell you she can’t win this thing,” he hollers, his voice hoarse after another day of campaigning. “I’m telling you, she can win this thing, because of people like you, and places like this.”
There is huge affection for Mr Clinton in West Virginia, where his wife faces her next primary contest with Barack Obama on Tuesday. The former First Lady holds an overwhelming 25-point lead among one of the whitest, oldest and most rural electorates in America. The state voted for her husband twice, but backed President Bush in the last two elections.
Yet as the former President appears before loyal crowds across small town Appalachia, and his wife stubbornly refuses to heed calls for her to quit the race, there is a palpable sense for many Democrats that they are witnessing a changing of the guard, the final days of the House of Clinton, after 16 years of dominance.
Even as Mr Clinton spoke, Mr Obama was paying a surprise visit to the House of Representatives, where congressman flocked around him, grasping for the hand of the man many believe is about to become their new leader. Five more super-delegates pledged their support for Mr Obama yesterday, including one who had previously backed Mrs Clinton.
But if Mr Obama has his sights on a general election against John McCain, he has a more immediate and equally testing challenge: how to unite a party, and a Democratic electorate, where large, crucial swaths of voters – especially white, blue-collar and the elderly – remain passionately loyal to the Clintons, and openly hostile to him.
As Mr Clinton’s barnstorming performance in Fairlea proved, he is still a potent force, and Mr Obama is going to need him, his wife and their supporters on side if he harbours any hope of reaching the White House.
It will not be easy. Such is the hostility among many of their supporters, that nearly half of Mrs Clinton’s backers in Indiana said they would not vote for Mr Obama if he were nominated. More than a third in Pennsylvania said the same. Not one Clinton supporter met by The Times in West Virginia said they would turn out for the Illinois senator. “You’d have to twist my arm a long way,” said Lonnie Ward, 62, a retired miner queueing to see Mr Clinton next to Cowboy Dan’s Meathouse. “Bill’s my main man.” Peggy Bland, 69, said: “She’s a strong, strong, strong lady.” And Mr Obama? “Oh no, I wouldn’t vote for him.”
Matthew Towsley, who has been selling Hillary and Obama badges, said: “It’s got real bad. Unless they can put them on the same ticket, there’s going to be trouble.”
Mr Obama’s big win in North Carolina last week, and Mrs Clinton’s narrow victory in Indiana, means the nomination is within his grasp. He is planning to declare a victory of sorts on May 20, after the contests in Kentucky and Oregon, when he expects to have secured a majority among the pledged delegates on offer.
Yet Mrs Clinton and her husband passionately believe that she is a better candidate to take on Mr McCain. She correctly pointed out on Thursday that she has a much broader base of support, even plunging into the minefield of racial politics by declaring that Mr Obama’s backing among “white Americans” was weakening.
In recent contests, she has won Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana with overwhelming backing from whites, blue-collar voters, women, and voters over 45. Mr Obama has been propelled toward the nomination mostly by African-Americans, the young, and the well educated. Paul Begala, a former Clinton strategist, inartfully summed up their case: “We can’t win just with African-Americans and egg-heads.”
Howard Dean, the Democratic party chairman, whose once-promising 2004 presidential bid collapsed in Iowa, said he spent months trying to persuade his supporters to rally behind John Kerry, the nominee. And they did not even dislike Mr Kerry. Gary Hart said that after he lost his divisive primary battle against Walter Mondale in 1984, he worked tirelessly – and held more than 40 campaign events – imploring his supporters to back the nominee. “And I was not able to move [them],” he said.
Even if Mrs Clinton loses, she will return to the Senate one of the most powerful politicians in the US. Yet for now, she has tens of millions of supporters across America that believe the House of Clinton must not fall.
Tit for tat
— Hillary Clinton may have to rely on sales of merchandise to revive her finances; $21.95 will buy a Hillary nutcracker
— In the 2004 race John Kerry, the Democrat challenger to President Bush, was accused of “flip-flopping” on issues, hence John Kerry flip-flop sandals
— One of the 2004 slogans, “Save a tree. Remove a Bush”, appeared on merchandise
— A Barack Obama thong is on sale at $9
— Election Protection Condoms for $11.95 a dozen, feature “the likeness of some of our most influential Americans”
Times research
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Obama is so not ready for the white house God help this country . Many of my black friends think the same thing, next McCain is just out to continue the war. Hillary is the right person, as she is a very strong person, that is what this country needs. A strong leader one who works for the people.
Faith Bartoshmedina, Auckland, NZ
I'm a 27 year old, white, liberal, gay female, and if Hillary is not the nominee, I will vote for McCain. Not because Obama is black...not because he's NOT Hillary...but because he is too naive, inexperienced, and passive to put into the White House during dangerous times like these.
Amber, Orlando, USA
Yeah, these hard-working, un-educated white voters will be digging their own graves when they vote for McCain come November. For a person to do that is just plain stupid, and very racist. All African-Americans stood behind Bill Clinton during his impeachment for his wrong-doings. remember Monica??
Ann Wade, Murfreesboro, TN,
There are 300 Million people lvinng in America, some one who can't win, does not end up in the lead. if 8 is a bigger number than one 8 is the leading number. Big is better than small. Huge & small means different thing, if you are not sure who is leading, ask some one who knows the difference.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
It is been a long, long time since we have had a serious candidate for President that has less experience, less track record than is the case with Obama. Add to that the small track record he has is a poor one!! Amazing!
Dick, Vancouver, WA, USA
Thats shows the ignorance of non educated blue collar workers!! Don't vote for him and watch another 4 years of Bush in the White House and gas prices sky rocketing to above 5 dollars and your jobs taken away!! That will really show Obama!!! Who's it going to hurt? The poor as always!! How stupid!
Curtis, Austin,
Obama, can not, and should not help Hillary Clinton out of her campaign debt, the sums Hillary has ran up in debt is to the tune of 36 Million US$ it is 18 Million pounds, any such money should be spent on the Katrina Victims. Hard working Americans. If Hillary was responsible, no debt!
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
Forget about a dream ticket Obama-Clinton. Michelle Obama has just vetoed it and Hillary' s ego wouldn' t make it possible either. And as Paul Begala said "the White House can not be won only with egg-heads and African Americans". Like it or not, in January 2009 you' ll see McCain' s inauguration.
Pete, Ft Lauderdale, Fl, U.S.A.
Believe what you want, but Obama will never be president, despite Europe's infatuation with him. We Americans will do the voting, and he really doesn't have a chance. For that matter, neither does Clinton, after her disgraceful performance the past few months.
Judith Willms, Omaha, US
The Democratic Party was founded many years ago, Hillary & Bill would like to think the Party belongs to them, there is another of their ill conceived ideas, based on arrogance.As the fantasy that she is more experienced, why is she losing? She is so experienced why could'nt she run her own campagn.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
How can a big nation like America allowed the Clintons back into the White House? I am a woman and will love to see a woman there but definitely NOT THE CLINTONS! AmerIca deserve a change. I love America and will love to see Obama there!
Grace, Oxford, England
Ah, but how fast such things do change. I would have agreed with this analysis unreservedly only two weeks ago. Not now. Hillary will not even remain in the Senate after the next vote. And she did it to herself in her cold ambition. But yes, she has hurt Obama some.
Ernest Werner, Trumansburg NY , USA
The Obama mania is just that "Mania". A few Congressmen for Obama say "because their kids like him". What about the voters that who put them in office? No hard questions for Obama, just distortions about Hillary. No records for Obamas' 6 years in IL Senate. All talk, no documentation!
Wake up!
Ruth, Secane, USA
The unfortunate truth is, many in the Hillary camps are duleded, they can not comprehend, that an unknown quantity has come along, and knocked Hillary off her perch, not even Hillary could have conceived such an out come. It shows just how much Obama is a strong candidate, and will win.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
"The politics of personality " is not unlike the "cult of personality" at the heart of the Communist Movement. And it failed. The Democrat/DNC concept of the "big tent" is now coming back to haunt them and tear them apart. Large pockets of subgroups within the Democrat Party with conflicting agendas
Jack, South Pasadena,
Mrs Clinton is more exprience and has a wider surport not only in the states but around the world. bush term in office has destroy the idea of USA, Land of hope and freedom, Mrs Clinton will be able to revive this dream again.
M.Francis , mahe, Seychelles
The Clintons are the heart of the Democratic party, without them there is not reason to vote Democrat, after 12 years of Republican rule they brought the Dem. back. I won't vote in November Dem or Rep if Mrs. Clinton isn't the nominee. We will vote Nader.
Without her the dem. lost already.
alice , lebanon, USA
Obama 08.
He can do it.
The dream ticket is a must, however, in order
to save the divided democratic party of loyal obama vs. clinton voters. If they unite, he'll "have their support as well" and this must happen.
Obama '08. "Yes We Can."
Naomi, Boynton Beach, United States
Barack Obama is a sincere man, but woefully unprepared for the Presidency of the U.S. If he is the Democratic nominee, I will have to do something I have never done before; vote Republican.
Dwight Palmer, Santa Clarita, United States
I agree with gerry luimes..I wish the racists could look beyond his color to see whar a great man and leader Obabma is and could be, The USA needs a"healer". The mess Bush is leaving us in is going to require a man of wisdom and tact to undo so much harm.Obama is that man!
carol Birmantas, Kewanee, USA
One Democrat. One vote for McCain.
Michael, Charlottesville, Virginia
Anybody who has taken an interest inO's book-The Audacidy of Hope,will have come to the inevitable conclusion to have encountered a very erudite and sincere individual with a great capacity to convince, to inspire, and to lead.Wish we were so lucky to have Obama in Canada!
gerry luimes, Edmonton, anada
Very sad to hear about folks whos traditional bonding to a canidate like the Clintons can't clearly see that to truely unite our country and our differences is to join something special an individual who has made the correct decisions all along and when he doesn't isn't afraid to admit it.
james D'Addio, hastings-on-Hudson, usa