Barack Obama declared yesterday that the general election battle against John McCain would begin next week and that he hoped to claim victory against Hillary Clinton after their final two nominating contests on Tuesday.

Although Mr Obama will need the support of more super-delegates to clinch the nomination officially after the final votes in South Dakota and Montana, he and Mr McCain are already turning their attention to what is shaping up to be a highly unpredictable November election.

Both have unusual strengths and weaknesses that could feasibly result in an Obama landslide or a big win for the Republican — although another close contest looks more likely.

Both have the potential to redraw the presidential electoral map by bringing new regions into play, making traditional Republican and Democratic strongholds competitive and turning recent results in more than a dozen swing states on their head.

Asked on his campaign aircraft if the general election begins on Tuesday, Mr Obama replied “yes”, adding that he believed he would be the winner against Mrs Clinton at that point. His confidence appeared to be shared by Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, who predicted that there would be an official Democratic nominee-elect within days of next Tuesday's contests.

Ms Pelosi also appeared to warn Mrs Clinton against prolonging the battle by continuing to contest the disputed results in Michigan and Florida, saying that if the issue was not resolved by the end of June, then she would “step in”.

Mr McCain will pose a tough test for Mr Obama — he is a Republican with strong crossover appeal to moderate Democrats and independents, two key groups that will be contested fiercely. In one sign of what could be an unusual campaign, both have said that they would be willing to hold unmoderated debates across the country throughout the summer.

A new battleground has emerged in the West, with Mr Obama targeting New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, states that were won by President Bush but which now appear highly competitive. Both Mr Obama and Mr McCain campaigned across the region this week.

Democrats believe that the rapidly growing Hispanic population, and the favourable political winds for the party, makes these three states — which have been won only once by a Democratic nominee in the past 40 years — a prime target.

Four years ago Mr Bush defeated John Kerry in the three states by a combined 127,011 votes. Had Mr Kerry won them, and their 19 electoral college votes, he would be president.

Yet, in Mr McCain, the Republicans have their first Westerner nominee in a generation. Mr Obama has struggled with Latino voters and the Arizona Senator — who has supported a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants — is not about to cede his home turf.

Mr McCain intends to capitalise on Mr Obama's struggle to win over white, blue-collar voters, which emerged during his primary battle against Mrs Clinton. He must hold on to the critical battleground of Ohio — no Republican has won the White House without it — but he is also targeting other Midwestern battlegrounds won by Mr Kerry where working-class voters have shunned Mr Obama, particularly Pennsylvania.

He has high hopes for Michigan, another big industrial state that was won by Mr Kerry. A new poll has Mr McCain four points up against Mr Obama there.

The Arizona Senator has even talked of competing hard in the Democratic crown jewel of California, with the help of its Republican Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. If he defeats Mr Obama in Pennsylvania or Michigan, and holds on to Florida and Ohio, Mr Obama will be in deep trouble.

Although Mr Obama has real vulnerabilities — most notably his struggle with moderate Democrats and his relationship with his controversial former pastor — he also has the potential to win by a landslide.

His prime target is Ohio, which is shaping up again to be a critical state on November 4. He also looks very competitive in Iowa and Virginia — two other states won by Mr Bush. An additional victory in Florida would mean a Democratic blowout, yet Mr McCain currently leads in polls in the Sunshine State.

Mr Obama's huge support from black voters has some analysts believing that he can even be competitive in the Republican strongholds of North and South Carolina, and Georgia. Any victory in the South by a black Democratic candidate would be likely to signal a massive nationwide triumph.

A close race is the still the likeliest outcome, but place bets at your peril. Anything is possible in what what has already been one of the most enthralling and unpredictable presidential races of recent times.

Battleground states 08

McCain target states: won by Kerry in 2004

Pennsylvania: McCain 35% Obama 45% (Rasmussen, May 21)

Michigan: McCain 41% Obama 37% (SurveyUSA, May 21)

Wisconsin: McCain 47% Obama 43% (Rasmussen, May 2)

Obama target states: wond by Bush in 2004

Florida: Obama 41% McCain 45% (Quinnipiac, May 20)

Ohio: Obama 48% McCain 39% (SurveyUSA, May 18)

Virginia: Obama 49% McCain 42% (SurveyUSA, May18)

New Mexico: Obama 44% McCain 44% (SurveyUSA, May 22)

Source: www.realclearpolitics.com

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