Republican delegates arriving for their convention this week are being greeted by a large hoarding on the freeway next to Minneapolis-St Paul airport. Put up by a satirical television show, it reads: “Welcome, Rich White Oligarchs.”

The billboard could, of course, have read: "Hello, neo-conservative hawks." Or even: "Greetings, gay-loathing Christians." But there is probably not enough space to embrace the full scope of modern American conservatism.

This week the twin cities of Minneapolis-St Paul will host a Republican convention which, although truncated by the state of emergency caused by Hurricane Gustav, will be the scene for the nomination of a man whose best hope of holding on to the White House is to distance himself from its current occupant.

The party meeting here is demoralised and divided. There is a pro-business lobby, an anti-immigration lobby, the Religious Right and a libertarian streak that is embodied by Ron Paul, the cranky former presidential candidate.

He sold 9,700 tickets for a rival “Rally for the Republic” which seeks to bring anti-war, anti-government, anti-taxes, anti-Federal Reserve activists together, along with Jesse Ventura, Minnesota’s former Governor and ex-professional wrestler. The efforts by John McCain to put all these pieces back together and overcome voter anger on issues ranging from Iraq to petrol prices and the economy will not be helped by the impact of Hurricane Gustav, which caused him to suspend most convention activities today.

The absence of President Bush and Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, on storm duty is a different matter. They are not the only Republicans choosing to stay away.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, is also indicating that he will not be at the podium for a primetime speaking slot tonight if his state’s budget crisis remains unresolved.

And at least ten incumbent senators have announced that they are not coming, including Chuck Hagel and Richard Lugar who have been noticeably kind to Barack Obama’s campaign in recent weeks. The party points out that most of the absentee senators are missing because they are involved in tight election battles in November and that they have been encouraged to concentrate on saving their seats. Implicit in such reasoning, however, is the idea that too close an association with the Republican brand may not help them much with voters. Even Mr McCain, with his maverick appeal to independent voters, threatens to be dragged down by his party or swept away by the enthusiasm for Mr Obama.

Polls that show that Mr Obama got a bounce of perhaps seven points from the Democratic convention do not fully take account of the energy surrounding him as 84,000 people at Invesco Field stadium and a record-breaking TV audience of up to 40 million watched his speech.

The Republican nominee made gains over the summer when he came back from far behind to within touching distance of Mr Obama. He knows, though, that the odds against him are steeper than the Republicans have faced in recent times and he has staked everything on one more roll of the dice.

Mr McCain could have picked any number of “rich, white oligarchs” to be his running-mate and reinforce his key criticism of Mr Obama, namely that a young senator with less than four years’ experience in state office is too inexperienced to be president.

Instead, he picked Sarah Palin, the similarly youthful Governor of Alaska who has served less than two years in state office. Much has been made of the choice of a woman and the apparent appeal to renegade supporters of Hillary Clinton. But aides say that Mr McCain, 72, was equally motivated by a desire to match Mr Obama’s youth with a fresh face of his own.

The recent attacks on his wife’s multimillion-dollar fortune and multiple homes have clearly hurt. Cindy McCain told a TV interviewer yesterday that she had been personally offended by the attacks on her Vietnam-veteran husband and her self-made brewing magnate father.

Mrs Palin’s moose-hunting, God-fearing, hockey mom appeal will reach the parts of the conservative base — and of the electorate — that Mr McCain cannot.

Her nomination has already galvanised social conservatives, who have always harboured suspicions towards Mr McCain, and contributed towards a $7 million (£4 million) surge in donations over the weekend.

With all that energy flying in different directions under a deep depression, Minnesota could be getting its own storms this week.

Absent with leave

— President Bush was due to speak on the opening night but is now unlikely to travel to Minneapolis because of Hurricane Gustav

— Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana, was forced to stay in his home state to oversee the emergency response

— Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi, is also staying at home to prepare for the hurricane

— A budget crisis in his home state means that it is doubtful if Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, will attend

— At least eight Republican senators, including Elizabeth Dole, Gordon Smith and Susan Collins, who are all in tight re-election races, would rather campaign than be seen at the Republican convention when the party brand is so unpopular

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