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Barack Obama has hit the crucial 50 per cent mark in the polls for the first time after an impressive Democratic convention and concerns over John McCain’s choice of the Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.
The Democratic nominee now holds an eight-point lead over Mr McCain – 50 per cent to 42 per cent – according to today’s daily tracking poll released by Gallup.
Mr Obama has bounced back from a poll low earlier this month when the two presidential candidates were tied on 44 per cent. Undecided voters have dropped from 11 per cent to 8 per cent, suggesting that those who have recently made up their minds are opting for Mr Obama.
Today, the McCain camp was pinning its hopes on a successful convention to peg back its rival.
Mrs Palin is due to address delegates tonight and Mr McCain’s top advisers have been busy prepping her for a speech that they hope will dispel doubts over her experience, grasp of national issues and the various personal and political controversies that have been swirling around her since the selection was announced on Friday.
"Based on the fact that Obama didn't even see a bounce until Wednesday or Thursday [of his convention last week], and the fact that the Republicans didn't even have a convention last night - for all of those reasons, we will be looking to see whether there will be a bounce for McCain in the next several days," said Frank Newport, Gallup editor-in-chief.
The revelation that Mrs Palin’s 17-year-old daughter is pregnant will have had no impact on today’s figures as polling interviews stopped on Monday just as the news was breaking.
However emerging details of the Wooten scandal – allegations that Mrs Palin abused her office to try and get her former brother-in-law fired as an Alaska state trooper – could have made an impact.
The Gallup results suggest the convention has helped Mr Obama win over both white male voters and former supporters of Hillary Clinton, where he has seen an increase of 5 and 11 points respectively. He has picked up support in the eastern states and in the west but in the south and Midwest has seen a slight loss to Mr McCain.
It also appears that the selection of Mrs Palin has failed to have the intended effect of winning over female independents, with the Democratic nominee extending his support among independents of both genders. Mr Obama also enjoys a 51-45 per cent lead in a new Rasmussen survey.
The scrambled start to the Republican convention – scaled back dramatically due to Hurricane Gustav – may have hit Mr McCain, but perceptions that he has swept aside partisan politics in the face of a national emergency could have contributed to his 1-point increase in support since last week, when the Democratic convention was in full swing.
A breakdown of battleground states by Real Clear Politics shows Mr Obama with healthy leads in Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey and Washington, while in New Hampshire and Colorado he maintains a slight edge. Mr McCain leads by upwards of four points in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, Texas, Mississippi and Louisiana, with lesser leads in Ohio, Florida and Nevada.
According to the breakdown - which uses averages of polling data from a number of national and local sources - the pair are locked in a tie in Virginia. RCP's electoral college count shows Mr Obama leading Mr McCain by 228 to 185, with 125 votes remaining a toss-up. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral college votes to win in November.
Last night, with the floods subsiding in Louisiana, President Bush began to rekindle Republican fires with a convention address beamed from the White House which heaped praise on Mr McCain and his running mate.
Mrs Palin has been holed up at her suite at the Hilton Minneapolis since Sunday night, as Mr McCain’s top advisers brief her on the nominee’s policy positions, national issues and how to introduce herself to an audience of millions.
The Alaska governor is sure of a rapturous welcome from the Republican convention, where delegates have rallied to her defence following the news that her daughter Bristol is having a baby with her boyfriend-turned-fiance.
As a staunch social conservative and lifetime member of the NRA, her selection sent the party’s powerful social and evangelical conservative base into peals of delight.
But her speech must win over a far tougher crowd – an America that hardly knows her and has been bewildered by a series of dubious revelations – from her past membership of the fringe Alaska Independence Party to an audio recording of her laughing while a cancer-surviving political colleague was called a "bitch", "cancer", and mocked for her weight.
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Correction - Per Gallop Poll Monday [8th] it's McCain 50% Obama 46% amongst likely voters.
That should spead as more people read Obama's record and see he did not vote 40% of the time in the Senate.
Nona, New York City, USA
Caribou Barbie, aka, Governor Sarah Palin is simply too extreme for America.
Gov. Palin we don't need a pitbull wearing lipstick.
We need a healer and concilliator.
Obama.
Robert Chapman, Lansing, New York, USA, USA
The Republicans love to say that Obama hasn't accomplished anything.
Isn't winning the Presidential nomination of the world's oldest and largest political party an accomplishment?
What is closer to actually governing than that?
Robert Chapman, LANSING, USA
Give Palin a chance before judging so harshly. It is fun to see the left wingers foaming at the mouth over her selection. There must be some good in her to evoke this strong reaction.
Bruce, Nampa, USA
Nona: Obama's liberal, not socialist. Besides, Ron Paul has been an AVID opponent of the hawkish war policies you conservatives constantly dish up. He's FISCALLY, not socially conservative. Something the rest of you Republicans should try. And Stephen O'Mara: How did that "Nixon" thing turn out?
BW, Wilmington, DE, USA
A total cipher, but watch it!!! Thet won with Quayle.
Robert Willerr, Marietta, Georgia
Eisenhower chose a running mate just as controversal in 1952. His name was Richard Nixon.
Stephen O'Mara, Tamworth, Australia
storyline for press: where's the substance this week? more fear? more tax cuts? and then?
theo, seattle, usa
McCain's selection of Gov. Palin for his VP leads me to conclude that he would make a poor choice for President. Because of McCain's age and medical history he owed us a VP choice that could have stepped up competently taken over the Presidency if he was unable to complete his term, he didn't.
Kate, Omaha, NE, USA
I'm not sure whether Palin will make a brilliant grandmother.
I am sure whether Palin will make a brilliant VP...and the answer is NO WAY JOSE!
So go Palin go--be McCains anchor from Anchorage and pull him down hook, line and sinker!
vj, london,
If Palin with her executive experience, once a Mayor status, a soon-to-be ground Mother label and in case u forget, a beauty pegeant experince still needs briefing as to how to introduce herself, then i pity where America is headed.
Felix Jimoh, Lagos, Nigeria
Daphne, please try to learn something about how government works in the USA.
Ron Paul is very conservative, believes in as little government as possible, believes in the individual. Obama on the other hand is socialist and wants the government to control everything. Total opposites.
Nona, New York City, USA
I believe McCain is very irresponsible in choosing Palin. She has hardly stepped outside of Alaska - an isolated state with little diversity. Her experience of the world is SO limited yet she is a heartbeat away. The VP choice is more important with a prez at 72. It shows he'd do anything to win.
Mimi, Cook,
Obama will change America and will think of everybody in the country .Not 'just' the rich.He's different,he has a background,does NOT believe in WAR or violence,he has a good,loyal heart and is strong and holds good beliefs.That is what America needs.Republicans are Greedy&selfish.
Jay, London, England
It is very simple really, Russia proved that socilaism does not work. America has proven that Democracy does work. As an American, you can not afford to vote for Obama! McCain is more experieced and he will lead our country, that is based off of Christian values, in the right direction.
Karla, Dallas, USA
Palin is a freak show that belongs in a Britney Spears like celebrity piece. She does not belong anywhere near the white house. Can you imagine her taking the oath of office of the president in a national crisis???
Christie , Toledo, OH, USA
Do we really need an ultra-conservative, ignorant VP who favors banning books, firing people who do not agree with her, preaching abstinence yet can't control her own children?
This is truly frightening - she does not reflect the views of our country - its about time that NY,NJ, MA,CA, to secede!
Dawn, New York, USA
THe world already saw the republicans way and the last time i checked Mr. London the world didnt like it. Not only did the world not like it the country didnt like it thats why the presidents aproval rating is under 30%.
John , New Jersey, USA
Michigan for Obama-I live in the suburbs of Oakland County
the support for Obama is increasing-yard signs and talk
we believe he is the best for this country and will lead us in the direction we want to go.
Angie, west bloomfield mi, united states
Obama hasn't done anything since he gained his senate seat, except run for president. As for experience, I don't think that spending time as a wee lad in Indonesia and Hawaii, suits a canidatae for president, and as for him being a lawyer, check the yellow and white pages, and pages, and PAGES!
jim, framingham, USA
McCain should win. We need the world to see how they do things the Republican way with an extra four years.
Bill, London,
Palin is another neo-con freak that's going to be a pain to deal with for many years to come. I was happy the more reasonable McCain won the Republican nomination until he picked this weirdo as his running mate.
Jeff, Sacramento, California, USA
"Mrs Palin has been holed up at her suite at the Hilton Minneapolis since Sunday night, as Mr McCains top advisers brief her on the nominees policy positions, national issues and how to introduce herself to an audience of millions. "
Truly shocking they picked someone that need this training!
Jonathan, Lincoln, UK
Daphne, Ron Paul is so far away from Obama politically it is staggering you think that such a switch would be possible. Ron Paul is a supportor of the Constitution, limited government, liberty, sound money and so on. Obama is opposed to all of these principles.
Rich, Middlesbrough,
I think all of Ron Paul supporters should vote for Obama.
I agree with Ron Pauls policies. And about the smartest man when it comes to policies, he stuck to the issues and I am not surprised he still has a following. He so right about all this war mongering. People want to live in peace worldwide.
Daphne Kenward, Cambridge, UK
Does the choice of Palin as Rep VP candidate not just prove that the American presidential campaign process is all about style without substance. I don't doubt that Palin could be a decent VP but surely there were better candidates and this wasn't just a ploy to get diversity on 'the ticket'.
Dave, Glasgow, United Kingdom
I am afraid of the religious right and what it might do to my rights and my world. After all the Talaban is just fighting in support of their religion and their view of the "correct" life style. Sarah Palin is in favor of teaching creationism. A topic for church teaching but not science class.
Jim McCreary, Houston, USA
I'm awaiting the VP candidates debates.
Jiesheng, Singapore, Singapore