Across the Pond: electoral college maps and state polls

Barack Obama has shot to a nine-point lead over John McCain as US voters become increasingly anxious over the turmoil on Wall Street and their own financial futures, according to a poll released today.

The Washington Post-ABC News national survey found the Democratic nominee leading his Republican rival by 52 to 43 per cent among likely voters. This represents a marked improvement in his fortunes from just two weeks ago, when Mr McCain had a two-point edge, and is the most significant lead recorded for either candidate in the bi-weekly poll.

The decline in Mr McCain’s popularity may in part be because his post-convention bounce – and in particularly conservative euphoria over Sarah Palin joining the ticket – has faded. But today’s poll also reveals growing fears about the economy in the wake of last week’s market chaos, with a majority of voters turning to Mr Obama as the candidate most able to cope with the crisis.

The financial crisis brought on the collapse of the credit market has become the No 1 issue leading up to the November 4 vote. Half of respondents said that the economy and jobs was the single most important issue that will determine their vote, a jump of 12 per cent over the past two weeks.

Fifty-two per cent of those polled said they believe the economy has moved into a serious long-term decline, while 83 per cent said they are concerned about the overall direction of the economy. Nearly three-quarters worry about the shocks to the stock market, and six in 10 are apprehensive about their own family finances.

The poll found Mr Obama has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the financial struggles of ordinary Americans. He leads by a massive 24 points, 57-33 per cent, in better understanding the public's economic problems.

The Illinois senator has carved out a 14-point lead over Mr McCain as the candidate most trusted to handle the economy, and leads by 13 points in perceived ability to deal with the meltdown of major financial institutions.

Tellingly, after trailing by 17 points, he has pulled even with Mr McCain in trust to handle a major crisis. And Mr Obama holds wide margins in vote preference among likely voters most concerned about the economy.

The impact of the Bush Administration's proposed Wall Street bailout plan is as yet uncertain. The poll finds the public cool over the $700 billion rescue package, which both candidates have criticised, though neither have come out in outright opposition and it is unclear how they will vote in Congress.

Both Mr Obama and Mr McCain have been busy picking through the political minefield sown by the crisis ahead of their first presidential debate on Friday. The Republican scored an own goal in linking Mr Obama to the crisis by highlighting campaign donations from employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the twin mortgage giants that became an emblem of the lax regulation blamed for the turmoil, after it emerged that two of his close aides had been paid to lobby for the firms.

Rick Davis, Mr McCain's campaign manager, received more than $2m from the companies over five years as head of the Homeownership Alliance, an advocacy group set up by Fannie and Freddie to help beat back regulatory challenges, the New York Times revealed on Monday.

Yesterday, it emerged that the lobbying firm of the man chosen by Mr McCain to begin planning a presidential transition earned more than a $250,000 this year representing Freddie Mac.

Timmons & Co., whose founder and chairman emeritus is William Timmons Sr., been registered to lobby for Freddie Mac from 2000 and this year earned $260,000, according to congressional records. Mr Timmons, 77, is listed as a lobbyist for the company on its midyear financial-disclosure form.

Mr McCain's economic woes are underscored by a flurry of new polls suggesting that voters largely blame his Republican Party for the meltdown. Polling in battleground states also indicates that Mr Obama is beginning to pull away, while the Post/ABC poll finds him improving his standing on a host of other issues including Iraq, terrorism and international affairs - on which the two candidates are now essentially even.

Crucially, Mr Obama has pegged back his rival's lead among white voters, narrowing the gap to just five points. He has also recovered well among white female voters, where he had seen a substantial shift to Mr McCain in the wake of the Palin pick. The demographic is now split equally between the two candidates.

But the polls also indicate that less than six weeks before the election, there is still a great deal to play for. An AP-Yahoo News poll found that 18 per cent of likely voters are still up for grabs - either undecided or willing to change their minds.

The key question for Mr Obama now is whether he can hold on to his lead through the first presidential debate on Friday night. He will go head-to-head with Mr McCain on national security, knowing that on one crucial aspect of this area - readiness to be commander-in-chief - the electorate remains to be convinced.

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