Gerard Baker, US editor
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After the extraordinary political and financial drama of the last week it was always unlikely that Friday night’s first presidential debate could possibly produce anything to compete.
And so it was. The two candidates, both highly experienced debaters, steeled in an unending series of similar verbal contests in their primary campaigns, battled each other to an inconclusive scoreless draw.
There were no obvious gaffes, no clinching moments, nothing memorable that will play on the TV news for the next few days, nothing in fact that would make the average undecided voter suddenly convinced that one or the other was the obvious winner.
But if an inconclusive result can be said to favour anyone then it was, maybe, just Barack Obama’s night. The Democrat was playing on away turf in content terms and that alone probably gave him a small advantage.
The planned subject of the debate was foreign policy. This was John McCain’s home field advantage – a big opportunity to wrest the campaign back in his direction after a couple of weeks of economic mayhem that seemed to push things decisively in Senator Obama’s favour.
But the events of this week dictated a change in plans and almost half the debate was taken up instead by timely discussion of the economic crisis. On that, if only by going through the motions of talking about an issue that polls suggest clearly favours the Democrats, Senator Obama had a distinct advantage.
Senator McCain made no effort to explain his controversial decision this week to suspend his campaign briefly and return to Washington to help out in the Great Bailout Negotiation. That gambit – coupled with the suggestion that he might not attend Friday night’s debate, an uncertainty not resolved until about eight hours before the scheduled time - was an attempt to show leadership in the economic crisis.
But by not talking about the bailout, and not even endorsing it during the debate (neither, by the way, did Senator Obama) Senator McCain will have left voters a little puzzled.
When the subject turned to foreign policy, Senator McCain had a clear edge. He repeatedly emphasised his experience – at times reeling off a long list of foreign leaders he had met and international crises he had helped resolve (although at one point he did mis-state the name of the president of Pakistan).
Senator McCain’s strongest moment in fact was probably his final answer, a stirring defence of his decision to support the surge in Iraq and a cutting denunciation of Senator Obama’s opposition to it. In general, Senator McCain surely succeeded in sowing further doubts in the public’s mind about the Democratic candidate’s readiness for the presidency.
Senator Obama’s advisers were quick to point out that the two candidates left contrasting impressions that might have helped the Democrat. Senator McCain’s constant emphasis on his experience may have reminded voters of just how long he has been around in Washington. Senator Obama, in contrast, talked up his campaign mantra of change. In an election in which voters have said the desire for change dominates their concerns, that was probably better for Senator Obama.
Against that, Senator McCain's staff were clearly pleased that the Democrat didn't have much success in tying the Republican candidate to the unpopular incumbent President Bush - one of Senator McCain's main sources of weakness they had expected Senator Obama to exploit.
But overall, it was not a debate that was likely to have moved many voters one way or another. We may have to wait until the remaining debates - beginning next week with the vice-presidential contest between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin, and continuing with two more presidential debates – to know whether these set-pieces are likely to have much effect on the outcome.
It certainly seems safe to say that nothing that happened on Friday night could really compete with events in Wall Street and Washington in the contest for American voters’ attention. And with the crisis over the bank bailout likely to take centre stage again almost immediately, the lasting effect of this debate will be small.
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