John McCain heads into the third and final presidential debate against Barack Obama tonight promising to “whip his you-know-what” and transform a race now pointing towards a resounding Democratic victory.

Given the flailing Republican campaign in recent days, however, he may have trouble distinguishing Mr Obama’s “you-know-what” from his elbow or any other part of the anatomy. Last night a CBS/New York Times poll showed the Democrat surging to a 14-point lead, the biggest margin so far. The disarray in the McCain team was apparent even as they sought to relaunch policies designed to tackle the financial crisis before the televised debate.

Over the weekend campaign aides promised that he would unveil details of a new package for the economy on Monday. Then, on Sunday night, they said that he would not. By Monday evening it was back on again.

When he finally took to the stage in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania, yesterday to announce a $52.5 billion (£30 billion) plan pitched towards voters on retirement incomes, much of its potential impact had been lost. He had no more luck with the $300 billion mortgage rescue proposal which, after being announced hurriedly in last week’s debate, got panned by liberals and conservatives alike as inconsistent with his promised spending cuts.

The effort to switch voters’ focus from the economy to Mr Obama’s character had been similarly afflicted. First the Republican campaign — and the vice-presidential nominee, Sarah Palin, in particular — hammered Mr Obama over his links to Bill Ayers, a Vietnam-era domestic terrorist, who lives in the same Chicago neighbourhood. Next, amid growing anxiety about the passions being stirred by such messages and polling evidence suggesting that voters did not like it, Mr McCain began publicly defending his rival as a “decent family man”. Yesterday, he was spinning back the other way, saying that recent goading from his rival for failing to raise Mr Ayers at the last debate had “probably ensured” it will come up tonight.

All this is grist to the mill for the Democrats, who have been deluged by material in recent weeks to support their claim that Mr McCain is erratic. Other examples cited include his decision to suspend his campaign last month and return to Washington to resolve the financial crisis, then abandon the capital two days later without a deal being agreed.

The most glaring contradiction has been between a strategy based on Mr McCain claiming to have the experience needed to guide America through turbulent times and his choice of the untested Mrs Palin as running-mate.

His campaign is now frantic. Rather than spend the early part of this week preparing for the debate, Mr McCain has been forced to devote much of his time to defending formerly safe Republican territory such as Virginia and North Carolina.

Last night he was appearing at a New York hotel with Mrs Palin for a fundraiser where they hoped to collect $7 million of much-needed campaign cash. But Republicans were busy venting their pent-up fury on a largely artificial row about fraudulent voter registrations, particularly among the minority populations inclined to back Democrats.

In contrast, Mr Obama has exuded caution, quiet confidence and calm. Yesterday his aides airily distanced him from ACORN, the group at the centre of the voter-registration row, saying that the campaign did not need its help and would not be distracted by the controversy. He has made only one appearance on the campaign trail this week and has spent the past three days in Ohio with aides, rehearsing for the clash in Long Island.

Republican strategists are angry that Mr Obama’s own policy vacillations have not received more attention from what they see as a craven and liberal media. Mr McCain used his Pennsylvania speech yesterday to issue another warning about his rival’s thin record. “Perhaps never before in history have the American people been asked to risk so much based on so little. You can look at the record of what he’s done or you can just go with your gut, but either way you’re left with the same conclusion: Senator Obama is going to raise your taxes.”

But the vultures are already circling. Bill Kristol, the editor of the conservative The Weekly Standard, wrote in The New York Times: “It’s time for John McCain to fire his campaign. Its combination of strategic incoherence and operational incompetence has become toxic.”

There has been a cacophony of conflicting advice. Some want him to hit Mr Obama harder and are frustrated that he has not raised the issue of the Democrat’s former pastor, the Rev Jeremiah Wright. Others insist that he must focus relentlessly on the economy. Still more suggest that his mixed messages have been the main problem.

Close allies such as Charlie Crist, the Governor of Florida, have started to stay away. He skipped a weekend rally to visit Disney World, apparently because he is unhappy with the recent negative tenor. “When I have time to help, I’ll try,” he said. “Everybody runs their campaign the way they think is the best. It is what it is.”

Times Recommends

• Settlers burn Koran in mosque attack
• Gorillas threatened by charcoal trade
• Israeli anger at new Palestine food labels