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By the time most Americans wake up, the first votes in the presidential election will have already been declared. In the tiny New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch, all two dozen of its residents will have cast their ballots simultaneously at midnight, with the results released one minute later. In keeping with electoral tradition both candidates will be present, though neither should be unduly worried by the outcome, as despite its uncanny accuracy in predicting party nominees, it has voted Republican in all but one presidential election in the last fifty years. For the real bellwethers, the world will have to wait just a little bit longer.
11pm GMT / 6pm EST – Indiana, Kentucky
It is uncertain whether we will get results from both of these states straight away as both straddle eastern and central time and therefore have poll closures at different times. In Indiana, the majority of the polls close at 6pm eastern so it is likely it will be called fairly soon after, unless it is extremely close, which in this battleground state it could well be. In Kentucky, the majority of the polls actually close at 7pm eastern, but if there’s any clear indication from the first poll closures the networks could well be tempted to call it anyway.
Midnight GMT / 7pm EST – Virginia, Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont
By now we should know which way Indiana and Kentucky and their combined 19 electoral votes have gone. Both of these are traditional Republican territory and if either go to Obama, his prospects are looking good — likewise with Virginia, which is currently leaning his way. This is particularly true for Indiana, which hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson's win here paved the way for a landslide.
South Carolina is a solid red state while Vermont and New Hampshire should be Obama’s — any other result would be potentially disastrous for him. (A few polls in New Hampshire will stay open until 8pm eastern but unless it’s very close, the networks will likely call it early.) Georgia should be a safe Republican state so an Obama victory here — or even a narrow win for McCain — would indicate a very strong Democratic showing nationally.
Florida is a key swing state and it would be tough for McCain in particular to win without its 27 electoral votes. However a note of caution with timings here — while the polls close in most of Florida at 7pm eastern, the traditionally conservative panhandle will continue voting till 8pm eastern, so the full picture will not be clear until then. The networks got their fingers badly burnt in Florida in 2000, so will likely be ultra-cautious about declaring it until all the results are in.
12.30am GMT / 7.30pm EST– Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina
West Virginia voted Republican in 2000 and 2004 and is leaning the same way in the polls, so an Obama victory here would be good news for him. Some of North Carolina’s polls stay open an hour later, so if it’s extremely close — which it looks like it could be — we might not hear anything yet.
Ohio could go either way and along with Florida is arguably the most crucial battleground. No Republican has won the White House without taking Ohio so if it falls to Obama, it could well be over for McCain. If it doesn't, Obama would have to win Florida or pull off at least some of the expected inroads into the Republican heartland.
1am GMT / 8pm EST– Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, South Dakota
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Obama will be president when we wake up. It fills me with an overwhelming sense of hope and excitement.
Diana Hunter, London,
Despite the media coverage in the UK I can see the race being very close, personally I would like to see the Democrats gain the Presidency
Tim O'Connor, Manchester, England
Being from Ohio, I can't stress how big the election is here today. Signs everywhere. It's all anyone is talking about. This is a very Democratic area, but McCain supporters are out and about.
Kyle, McDonald, OH
Why wait for California, if the states goes republican it would be a first for a long time.
California makes the UK look conservative; a very strange place indeed!
I have also noticed the heavy media bias in the UK supporting Obama, and it annoys me a lot.
Jacques, Kent, UK
I suspect McCain will do better than expected - the anti-Obama vote is robust and will definitely turn out. The pro-Obama vote may not be as diedicated.
McCain isn't that bad, although you'd hope he'd stay in good health if elected!
HGFC, Derby, UK
I believe Obama should become president as from my opinion America needs something new and something less conservative than the republican party.
The democrats would make the country a much liveable place which would be exhoed across the world/.
Adam Hagan, Birmingham, UK
I think that Mr Mcain has been hugely underestimated by the British public, and also die to the biased British media. Republicans still have a shot.
I still think that Mr Obama would be more suitable for both America and the world at a time like this.
john L, London, UK
I wouldn't count McCain out if I were you guys.
But the result here won't be a ringing endorsement for Obama - it will be a win-by-default, after there were no good conservative candidates.
Mark J, Kansas City, MO, USA
Eishah, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
I suspect that almost every free thinking person in the west, outside of the United States is hoping that you're right, and that Obama wins across the nation.
The world will be a safer, saner place without the religious right in the White House. Good luck.
Geoff Read, Southampton, UK
After attending an Obama rally yesterday and waiting for 5 hours in the cold, listening to his words and actually seeing him and being surrounded by thousands and thousands of supporters, I know he is winning Ohio.
Eishah, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
The media is not suppose to report any results of their exit polls until the last poll is closed.
jvii, Cary, NC, USA
The networks will be be very circumspect about calling a state too soon. In the past they have been wrong and have had to reverse themselves. Only if it is obvious that one candidate has an overall Electoral College advantage might they declare the winner, but otherwise they'll wait for California.
David Cunard, Los Angeles, United States