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By the time most Americans wake up, the first votes in the presidential election will have already been declared. In the tiny New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch, all two dozen of its residents will have cast their ballots simultaneously at midnight, with the results released one minute later. In keeping with electoral tradition both candidates will be present, though neither should be unduly worried by the outcome, as despite its uncanny accuracy in predicting party nominees, it has voted Republican in all but one presidential election in the last fifty years. For the real bellwethers, the world will have to wait just a little bit longer.
11pm GMT / 6pm EST – Indiana, Kentucky
It is uncertain whether we will get results from both of these states straight away as both straddle eastern and central time and therefore have poll closures at different times. In Indiana, the majority of the polls close at 6pm eastern so it is likely it will be called fairly soon after, unless it is extremely close, which in this battleground state it could well be. In Kentucky, the majority of the polls actually close at 7pm eastern, but if there’s any clear indication from the first poll closures the networks could well be tempted to call it anyway.
Midnight GMT / 7pm EST – Virginia, Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont
By now we should know which way Indiana and Kentucky and their combined 19 electoral votes have gone. Both of these are traditional Republican territory and if either go to Obama, his prospects are looking good — likewise with Virginia, which is currently leaning his way. This is particularly true for Indiana, which hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson's win here paved the way for a landslide.
South Carolina is a solid red state while Vermont and New Hampshire should be Obama’s — any other result would be potentially disastrous for him. (A few polls in New Hampshire will stay open until 8pm eastern but unless it’s very close, the networks will likely call it early.) Georgia should be a safe Republican state so an Obama victory here — or even a narrow win for McCain — would indicate a very strong Democratic showing nationally.
Florida is a key swing state and it would be tough for McCain in particular to win without its 27 electoral votes. However a note of caution with timings here — while the polls close in most of Florida at 7pm eastern, the traditionally conservative panhandle will continue voting till 8pm eastern, so the full picture will not be clear until then. The networks got their fingers badly burnt in Florida in 2000, so will likely be ultra-cautious about declaring it until all the results are in.
12.30am GMT / 7.30pm EST– Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina
West Virginia voted Republican in 2000 and 2004 and is leaning the same way in the polls, so an Obama victory here would be good news for him. Some of North Carolina’s polls stay open an hour later, so if it’s extremely close — which it looks like it could be — we might not hear anything yet.
Ohio could go either way and along with Florida is arguably the most crucial battleground. No Republican has won the White House without taking Ohio so if it falls to Obama, it could well be over for McCain. If it doesn't, Obama would have to win Florida or pull off at least some of the expected inroads into the Republican heartland.
1am GMT / 8pm EST– Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, South Dakota
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