Smash hit

It could be all over with this slew of results. This is when — bar voting delays — we should know which way Florida has gone and either candidate takes it along with Ohio, they could well be declared with the victor. If each candidate takes one of the two major battlegrounds, however, the presidency is still up for grabs.

The rest of this hour’s results should be fairly predictable, with the eastern states going to Obama and the southern to McCain. The only exception is Missouri, which is a battleground this time around. If Obama hasn’t already clinched it, a win in this state would suggest that he is still on course for victory.

Pennsylvania, often seen as another big battleground, looks set to fall to Obama this time around, so if McCain does manage to claw back a win here it would indicate that Sarah Palin has had a stronger pull on small-town working-class voters than previously thought and could signal a surprise Republican victory.

In Michigan, some polls stay open for another hour but these are few and far between, and as it is currently a solid blue state it will likely be declared now. South Dakota also straddles two time zones but is similarly pro-McCain so also should be called early.

1.30am GMT/ 8.30pm EST Arkansas

If we haven’t heard anything from North Carolina yet, we’ll hear it now. Arkansas should be in the bag for McCain.

2am GMT/ 9pm EST – Colorado, New York, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming

By now it is likely that one candidate will have built up a respectable lead and could be looking for just one battleground win to push him past that magic 270 mark in the electoral college. Any one of New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado could do it — all currently leaning Obama so if McCain manages to wrest any of them back he could still be in contention.

New York, Wisconsin and Rhode Island should be foregone conclusions for Obama, while Louisiana, Wyoming, Nebraska and Arizona should be safe for McCain. As the latter is his home state, he'll no doubt be there in person to thank its residents for its ten electoral votes.

In Kansas, some polls will remain open later but this is the time the networks consider it to have closed and it’s a solid red state so is likely to be declared now.

3am GMT / 10pm EST – Iowa, North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Nevada

We could well have a winner, but if not Obama will be looking to Iowa, North Dakota and Nevada to tip him over the edge, which polls suggest they are likely to do. Nevada in particular is seen as something of a bellwether as since 1968, it has only voted for the wrong candidate once, in 1976. Montana and Utah are easy McCain territory.

In North Dakota and Idaho, polls will remain open for another hour in the western areas but these are sparsely populated so networks generally consider them closed now.

4am GMT / 11pm EST – California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii

These should all fall easily to Obama but by now it will be all but over anyway. However California offers an interesting sideshow for political nerds in the form of a proposal to prohibit gay marriage in the state, in many ways a test of why the winner of the presidential election has won. Harry Hayfield, a commentator at PoliticalBetting.com, said: “If the YES camp win [prohibiting gay marriage] then it is clear that Christian Conservatives were able to bring liberal Conservatives with them, if the NO camp wins [supporting gay marriage] then this election will have seen the liberal elite come out in force.”

5am GMT / Midnight EST – Alaska

Something of a footnote, anything other than a victory for McCain — whose running-mate is the governor — would be a massive, though inconsequential, upset.

By now every American who wanted to have a say on their president will have done so — bar voting disputes, which, with a nod to the 2000 debacle, must remain the glaring caveat to any schedule.

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