Tom Baldwin
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Even in the midst of a final bombardment in the battle for the White House the sound of gunfire can be heard coming from behind Republican lines, presaging a protracted and bitter civil war.
A party that only four years ago appeared so disciplined and dominant as it delivered President Bush a second term is now divided in the face of an anticipated rout that may give Democrats unfettered power across Washington.
Mr Bush's legacy — unfinished wars, a tainted reputation for competence, record high spending, a global economic crisis and the effective nationalisation of the financial system — have shaken loose the ideological cement that once bound the Republican party together.
This has left national security realists at odds with “neocon” hawks over Iraq, fiscal conservatives railing against the bailout of Wall Street, and the Religious right — “theo-cons” — skirmishing with the party leadership over what it regards as a too-timid approach on issues such as abortion, civil partnerships and illegal immigration.
Such fractures in the coalition, apparent in a primary campaign which John McCain won despite securing significantly less than half the vote, have become infected with gangrene during the presidential election.
Threatened with open revolt if he picked the independent Democrat Joe Lieberman as his running-mate, Mr McCain hoped to galvanise his party by choosing Sarah Palin. The result has been a dysfunctional campaign.
Some of his own advisers say that she is more intent on positioning herself for the next presidential race than fighting this one. Her defenders point out that it is she who pulls the crowds, not him, and suggest that Mrs Palin has been ill-served - even betrayed — by Mr McCain's team.
She is increasingly giving voice to the dissent in Republican ranks, criticising the decisions to pull the campaign out of Michigan and to avoid making racially combustible attacks on Barack Obama over his links with the Reverend Jeremiah Wright.
When she went to Iowa at the weekend, it may well have been significant that she hinted at support for ethanol subsidies which are opposed by Mr McCain but will put her in good stead when the state kicks off the presidential nominating process in 2012.
There is little doubt that as a populist pitbull champion of culturally conservative issues she excites core Republicans in a way that Mr McCain cannot, not least because the party has moved decisively to the Right over the past two decades. Mrs Palin is also coming to symbolise a fresh rift in the party between the base and the Establishment.
The list of Republicans backing Mr Obama includes not only centrist figures such as General Colin Powell, the former Secretary of State, but also Ken Adelman — a leading neocon who advised Donald Rumsfeld on Iraq and introduced Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, to Paul Wolfowitz, the hawkish former Deputy Defence Secretary.
Mr Adelman admits to being startled at finding himself in Democrat ranks, attributing his defection to doubts about Mr McCain's temperament and his “appalling lack of judgment” in picking Mrs Palin. He told The New Yorker magazine: “I would not have hired her for even a mid-level post in the arms-control agency.”
Christopher Buckley, whose father helped to found the modern conservative movement, has also swallowed his right-wing principles to back Mr Obama, contrasting the Democrat's “first-class intellect” with Mr McCain's decision to pluck Mrs Palin from the Alaskan wilderness. “What on Earth can he have been thinking?” he asked.
Mrs Palin promises to eschew the traditional hierachy even as she hints at having a very big part in the Republicans' future. “I would love to promote the party ideals if we're going to live out the ideals and maybe allow other American voters to understand what the principles of the party are,” she told The Weekly Standard magazine. “We've got to be assured we have enough people in the party who will live out those ideals and it's not just rhetoric. Otherwise, I'd be wasting my time.”
At one recent rally she said: “We believe that the best of America is not all in Washington, DC. We believe that the best of America is in these small towns that we get to visit, and in these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America, being here with all of you hard-working, very patriotic, very pro-America areas of this great nation.”
Her problem is that with polls suggesting that North Carolina, Virginia and tracts of the Rocky Mountain West are heading into Mr Obama's columns, “real America” may no longer be big enough to elect a Republican president.
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So far most of the analyses here have exhibited little depth of understanding regarding who and what led to the economic situation in the US. It is unfortunate that so many are inclined to skim the surface of these issues by relying on "journalists" and the media to interpret the facts for them.
Mary George, Blairsville, GA
The Republicans have done nothing but horrible smearing, and sadly for some reason people would rather blindly follow it than do their own thinking. The Democrats don't need to smear the Republicans, Sarah Palin does it for them!
Can any of you imagine Palin face to face with the likes of Putin??
SarahF, Ormskirk, UK
yeah, Prince can pull in crowds too, but I don't want him a heartbeat away from the Presidency. This woman is awful and I resent the talking heads saying she rallies the "BASE"... no, she rallies the Evangelicals... THAT"S IT!.. and I am a Republican, NOT an Evangelical.
Karen, denville, USA
Sarah Palin is a joke. The notion that she will control the GOP is a joke. The notion that she will be any better qualified to be president in four years is a joke. But the joke is on the republicans and I am having a nice laugh.
Larry Laitner, Ashland, United States
The Republican Party needs to once and for all silence Sarah Palin. She is driving a partisan rift between Americans with her constant accusations toward Senator Obama. I am tired of her ugly politicing. She does not possess the type of character nor demeanor I want to see in the White House.
Jeff, San Jose, California, USA
The most poignant moment I have had throughout this US election campaign is this: a young, black man who has a ten year history of mental illness saying to me, his support worker, "If Obama wins it means I will stop having to make excuses". That is Obama's global appeal but very individual appeal.
Martin Clive, London, England
I am an american who is an independant . Truely I don't really like either party at this time. However, I am voting for John McCain because of experience. -
Mary, New Port Richey, U.S.A
Republicans have had the White House for 28 of the last 40 years.
Since Reagan in 1981, conservative Christians have been influencing politics by hijacking the Republican Party.
The backlash involves moderate people disavowing the ideals of the far right Christians who want things their way.
Dakota Clark, Lake Stevens, Washington, USA
Even if on Election Day in the U.S.A. the Democrats put the black "messiah" into the White House, this election will have sorted out certain 'directions' within the G.O.P. What does it stand for? What are its priorities? But I say again, don't forget the lesson of 1970. "Labour will win!" - it lost!
Dr. Michael Chilton, Beverley, England
One minute we have the Republicans talking up small town America and the next global America. If America is so influencial in wishing to settle US and world problems then America cannot afford to elect McCain/Palin, they must bite the bullet and go for Obama and really help themselves and the world!
Ted Timberlake, Upper Seagry, UK
Roll on a centrist Obama. Lets hope he will unite the US people to realise how much damge has been done by Bush/Cheney polices to US reputation.
It will be a historic turning point- I hope- in which basic fairness returns and greed and aggression is outlawed.
If not then the US is doomed to lose.
john bentley, Loule , Portugal
Don't believe what you read. The liberal media is trying to elect the U.S. president. The "civil war" is trying to get the media to print the truth about Obama.
Samuel Crow, Casper, USA
Mr. Baldwin please spare me the myopic picture of your socialist colored glasses. While you pick out a prayer rug we are trying to preserve the Constitution and federal ideals that have paid for the UK's and EU's defense budget for the last 40 years. Obama is but EU's socialist poster child.
Tim, Salado, USA
So Palin thinks they are behind in the race because they're not being negative enough on the opponent? Not because she doesn't understand any issues, domestic or foreign?
Jason, Swansea, UK
I agree Yesh. I saw 'Joe the Plumber' onTV last night giving a press briefing. He concluded by saying he'd be voting for McCain who was a REAL American. No mystery what he meant. Just disgusting.
teresa, London, UK
Palin is not what many seem to think she is. She's been painted very heavily socially conservative but her record is thankfully a lot cleaner. Not a lost cause.
There's a golden opportunity for the true values of liberty to take hold again at the heart of the Republican party. It mustn't be missed.
John Swaine, Malta, Malta
I am a teacher who lives and works in Washington, DC. The majority of Americans are sick of President Bush and the entire Republican party who have destroyed our country and affected the world negatively! They've given Americans a bad reputation! We welcome PRESIDENT Obama!!
Lelia, Washington, DC, United States of America
When Palin says "We believe that the best of America is in these small towns that we get to visit, and in these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America," it becomes clear that she does not consider ethnically diverse, urban neighborhoods to be part of the real America.
Herb, Chicago, USA
The next 4 to 8 yrs will be hard for the US. That is why this election was intentionally thrown to the Dems. By the time the economy, etc has naturally righted itself, the Reps will produce a "real" candidate& lock up the office for 8 yrs. McCain/Palin was never serious, it was intended as a show.
Brian W., Los Anglels, US
McCain can still win by offering 'green collar' job opportunities, and googling: renewable energy jobs growth america, and looking at page 51, showing an opportunity for increasing jobs from 446,000 to 7.9 million.
Instead of $600 tax rebates a year, he could offer a lump sum $2,400 for solar.
Hugo van Randwyck, London, Uk
Mrs Palin is effectively reducing the republicans to a rump party of the reactionary far right. This is by no means the majority of Americans but a distinct minority, who by themselves stand no chance of forming a government. Sensible people of both parties look with dismay at these bizzare persons
James, Beckton, East London
Agreed - the Republicans never had a prayer. No party has survived a recession. Right or wrong, it's always the economy. Take onboard the commentary with respects Palin, but McCain really had no choice - half of his own party would have abstained from the election altogether if had chosen anyone els
chris, london, UK
It is of course of enormous importance to us Europeans that after this election the Republican party is rebuilt - there must be effective opposition in any successful democracy. A return to traditional Republicanism, ditching the neoRepublican greed merchants as a start. Think Dwight Eisenhower?
John Pedler, Aquitaine, France
I'm French and not American: so I will only make one comment regarding these elections: it seems obvious that the Republicans chose the wrong candidates for this election. And this is not a critisisme of Mrs Palin or Mr McCain. Again they are just the wrong choice of candidates !
E. Bee, Toulouse, France
America does not need a "right wing party". It needs all embracing, intelligent, honest, caring centre party
Not today's money grabbing, neocon, waterboarding, big corporations, trad Republicans.
Does anyone still trust Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney et al?
Leigh Vernier, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Republicans typically only re-acquaint themselves with values like fiscal responsability & military prudence (exit strategy) when in opposition - or at least, that's when they shoot their mouth off a lot about these things. But when in power, their one REAL character trait shines through: GREED.
Roel, Leuven, Belgium
Palin represents the apocalyptic fringe of the Republican party, which is hoping that a turn to their brand of Christian righteousness will "save" America. The Religious Right is turning their attention to the necessities of this world, abandoning the pseudo morality of the far right. Hallelujah!
Daniel Loftin, Spokane, USA
There was no way a Republican could have won anyway. The election is really the Democrats' to lose.
Andrew, Portland,
It is not always the ranks of the established and the entrenched that bring the fresh air of change - rather they don't - it is very often the unheard and the upstart who is responsible for beginning anew. So with Sarah Palin.
Andrew, Columbus,
It's okay. We Republicans will be back again, with new faces and energetic concepts. We've had our times in the wilderness before, like 1964. If President Obama taxes us all like he plans to, then it will be soon!
Gregory Baker, Odenton, Maryland, USA
Repeating what Toqueville said c. 1830, American needs an intelligent right-wing party.
ankel marmot, Henderson, USA
A defunct Republican Party is an amazing opportunity. The sudden ideological gap will allow a place for policies based off of the new (and wonderful) disciplines of evolutionary psychology and behavioral economics. The meticulous policies suggested by these would move the party to the center-right.
Alexander, Ames, IA,
Earlaiman, That comment doesn't even make sense. The biggest problem is that there is vast concern about the future direction of the republican party, as the polls haven't back McCain to the extent to make the party comfortable everyone and their mom is interjecting their plan to save the party.
Paul P, Minneapolis, USA
To understand what Palin means when she refers to "real America", all you need to do is look at the crowds she draws at her rallies. Do you see a single black face among them? I have stared at two dozen photos but I have never seen a single black face. That's her real America - the White people.
Yesh Prabhu, Plainsboro, NJ, USA
Today's Republican Party will soon be a historical diorama exhibit next to the defunct 19th century American Whigs at the Smithsonian. The title of diorama will be "The party which could neither shoot or think straight.".
MARK KLEIN, M.D., OAKLAND, CA , USA
They have not only circled the wagons to form a circular firing squad, the wheels have just fallen of every damned wagon.
What goes around, comes around!
Earlaiman, Subang Jaya, Malaysia