From the wreckage of John McCain’s presidential campaign, and a Republican Party thrust into the political wilderness, one person emerges today believing she still has a bright future on the national stage: Sarah Palin.

Although Mr McCain’s running mate proved an overall drag on the Republican ticket, the passionate following she earned among the party’s conservative base provides her with a bedrock of support and fundraising potential for a White House run in four years’ time. The race to become the Republican nominee in 2012 begins today, but at a time when there is no obvious front-runner, and when the party begins a season of internecine warfare and soul-searching.

Mrs Palin emerges from the Republican defeat as the new standard-bearer for the cultural conservative base, still a powerful force in the South but one that saw its power diminished in other regions on Tuesday night.

Yet she has time to modify her image, and brush up on her foreign policy credentials, in a country where political reinvention has successfully occurred many times before. Her inexperience and lack of expertise on many issues ultimately reversed the initial boost she gave to Mr McCain. She made it clear in the past fortnight that she intends to remain an important figure in the Republican Party, although when asked about her future yesterday, she said: “I cannot even imagine running for national office in 2012”.

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In his concession speech, Mr McCain said: “I am also, of course, very thankful to Governor Sarah Palin, one of the best campaigners I’ve ever seen, and an impressive new voice in our party for reform and the principles that have always been our greatest strength,” he said, to big cheers. “We can all look forward with great interest to her future service to Alaska, the Republican Party and our country.”

Mr McCain will return to the US Senate, where he represents Arizona, and will remain a powerful figure in the upper chamber. From there he will watch the fight to succeed him as the presidential nominee.

Early contenders include Mitt Rom-ney, whom Mr McCain beat in this year’s primary battle. He, like Mrs Palin, is liked by conservatives, but the former Governor of Massachusetts also has vast sources of private wealth and, as a former venture capitalist, the economic credentials that might be important.

Bobby Jindal, the Governor of Loui-siana, also appears to be contemplating a run. In three weeks’ time he travels to Iowa, home of the first nominating caucus, a trip one suspects he would not make were it not for at least an interest in an attempt.

The Republican Party now faces a period of painful debate over its direction. It is already fracturing along ideological lines. Cultural conservatives believe that it has not focused enough on issues such as abortion.

Fiscal conservatives decry such sentiments, blame neoconservatives for the bungled Iraq War and are dismayed by the Bush Administration’s runaway spending. Still others believe the party has to move to the centre.

For all the gloom, Republicans have been in a similar predicament before and have recovered quickly. They suffered big defeats in 1964, 1976 and 1992, only to make big gains on Capitol Hill soon after. By 1968 and 1980 a Republican was back in the White House.

One key to a Republican recovery might lie in the hands of a Dem-ocratic-controlled Congress – and Democratic president. If the party with total control in Washington fails to turn around the economy, it might suffer a backlash in four years’ time.

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