Gerard Baker
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Most historical observations about Barack Obama’s victory in the US presidential election on Tuesday have focused on his race. But by many measures it would have been a singular political achievement, whatever the colour of his skin.
For a start, in terms of the popular vote it was the best performance by a Democratic candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. His 52 per cent made him only the third Democrat in the past 100 years to win a clear majority of the votes of Americans.
It was also the highest share of the vote by a nonincumbent president or vice-president from either party since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. The first-term Senator from Illinois, in other words, did better than the governors George Bush in 2000, Bill Clinton in 1992, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Jimmy Carter in 1976, the former Vice-President Richard Nixon in 1968 and the Senator and decorated war hero John F. Kennedy in 1960.
President-elect Obama won votes in parts of the country no Democrat has reached in decades.
His victories in rock-solid Republican Indiana (which Mr Bush won by 21 percentage points four years ago), and his triumph in Virginia, home to the capital city of the Old Confederacy, were the first by a Democrat in those states since 1964. He became the first Democrat from outside the South to win the presidency since John Kennedy.
His lengthy coat-tails helped to drag other Democrats to historic victories across the country. The party made big gains in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Added to their win in mid-term elections two years ago, these were the biggest back-to-back congressional election victories since Franklin Roosevelt was President. There is now not a single Republican congressman in New England, the disintegrated Yankee bedrock of the Grand Old Party.
All this history is making Democrats giddy. They can hardly be blamed for thinking that the 2008 election marks a transformation in the politics of the most powerful democracy in the world.
Given that at least part of their success seems to be owed to long-term demographic shifts – more college-educated, suburb-dwelling, socially liberal, nonwhite voters – it is understandable that Democrats are thinking in terms of a new era. The long period of conservative domination that began with the election of President Reagan almost 30 years ago certainly seems to be over.
But America is a big, complex country that defies easy characterisation, and there was plenty in Tuesday’s results to give pause to anyone tempted to think that the country is about to reinvent itself as a European-style social democracy.
To begin with, the Democrats’ gains were not quite as comprehensive as they had hoped or as the structural political conditions would seem to have predicted. Mr Obama won a lopsided victory in the electoral college, thanks to quite narrow victories in a number of states, but his lead over his opponent in the popular vote (about 6 percentage points) was well short of landslide proportions.
What’s more, the Democrats did not really make the sweeping gains in Congress that they had been expected to make. With recounts still going on in a number of states yesterday it looked as though they might have increased their total number of Senate seats from 51 to 56 – a comfortable majority, but well short of the 60 that many had forecast.
Most important, when you think of the macro-political conditions in America in 2008, you are left wondering why the Democrats did not do significantly better.
The US is in its deepest recession in a generation. For the first time in its history a catastrophic financial crisis erupted right in the middle of a general election campaign, one that fatally undermined the incumbent party. An unpopular war in Iraq has destroyed the Republican Party’s reputation for national security reliability. The exit poll on Tuesday found that 76 per cent of respondents thought that the country was on the wrong track. Democrats outspent Republicans by two-to-one. It is hard to imagine how circumstances could ever be much better for the Democrats.
Even as Mr Obama’s party was winning votes across the country, people were expressing strong support for conservative policies. In the most-watched ballot initiatives (plebiscites) on social issues in many states, there was little sign of a radical new beginning.
Voters in California, Florida and Ari-zona supported constitutional amendments to outlaw gay marriage. Voters in Arkansas banned adoption by unmarried couples. In Nebraska a measure to end affirmative action in state hiring practices passed easily.
Most remarkably, for all the transformation in US politics wrought by the past four years, Americans themselves do not seem to have undergone any great ideological conversion.
In 2004 exit pollsters asked voters how they would identify their politics. The answers were 21 per cent liberal (Left), 45 per cent moderate, 34 per cent conservative. On Tuesday, the same question elicited these responses: 22 per cent liberal, 44 per cent moderate, 34 per cent conservative.
President Obama and his jubilant supporters in Congress will surely not need reminding that this is still a centre-right country.
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It's always amusing to see the Europeans talk about racism in the US when they themselves are far more racist than they are willing to admit. When England elects a black Prime Minister, or allows their Royals to marry "outside", then you will let us know about great evils of "American racism", okay?
Cherilyn, New York, NY, USA
Forget whose side you're on,weren't they lucky to be able to vote for the person who will be their political leader and the key holder to the equivalent of No 10,Downing Street.
We get no vote for our Head of State nor the occupant of No 10 and our Parliament is the mother of all democracies!!
james allen, manchester, england
Finally, somebody is talking with their eyes open! Yes, Obama won a great victory! Yes, there will be changes. But a radical new era? The facts don't support it. In order to get ANYTHING done, Obama will have to disappoint some his liberal supporters.
It's not going to be easy.
George Robb, Martin County, USA
The "Democrats gains were not quite as comprehensive as they had hoped"?
If you'd told me Obama would win the popular vote by 7 million votes, and that he'd take Republican strongholds like Indiana and (as it now appears) North Carolina, I'd have dismissed you out of hand as a fantasist.
Seamus MacDhai, Durham, Co.Durham, UK
This is a fine analysis of American politics. I would add that it would be foolish for my fellow citizens to say that the election of a black man to the presidency (unthinkable until recently) moves us toward more progressive social policies. Would it were so. But this is a radical cultural shift.
Joe, Dearborn, United States of America
Very well thought out article, to be frank, just what this conservative needed to hear to instill a little hope. Indeed, my heart had been breaking as I had thought America had died, but after reading this article, I can see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Thanks!
John H McConnel Jr, Mount Carroll, USA
The victory was of the news media. Now everyone says that Regan was a wonderful president, but when he was in office the news reprted he could do nothing right. Clinton could do no wrong. Bush could do no right. Obama will continue to walk on water. We Americans have have no ideas of our own.
Papa Jack, Burke, USA
Lets all hope that this Obama victory combined with the slight but not overwhelming Democratic Congress will lead to moderation and centrist collaboration. Most people in the US do not want either a European style government or a hands-off Bush style government.
John, Arlington,
While state results for amendments and high number of voters for McCain are still signs we have far to go as liberals, there is hope. Secondly, please don't do us a disservice by comparing our voting for Obama/Biden and a democratic majority in Congress to the Palin choice.
Jason, Florida, USA
Ah, but they will need reminding. Look for a lurch to the left in legislation and government policies. Look for a reprise of the L. Johnson years, when the Democrats simply exhausted the country, and the peoples' patience, with their cascade of new social legislation.
What then in 2012? 1968?
Terry L. Walker, Ladson, SC / USA
It is nice to see the view from the outside. All we are hearing in the media over here is how wonderful Obama is, and how complete his victory was. The rest of us should just shut up and fall into line. I am glad thing don't look as dire as both sides here are making them out to be. Thanks!
Chris R, San Diego, California, USA
Good article giving a brief explanation on American ideology and political affiliations.
Mark Lee, POS, Trinidad
You are wrong on the first Reagan margin of victory, it was 55.3 percent. Other than that, you're right.
Darrell Smith, Hagerstown, Indiana, USA
Bob Evans,
You are right, 53% is not exactly a mandate, but 6% is a pretty clear victory and is by no means "one of the closest presidential elections." Remember, that 6% is a wider margin than Bush won combined between his two elections. Not a mandate, but a clear victory.
Nathan, Cleveland, Ohio,
McCain discredited himself by choosing Palin in a blind act of faith in someone he didn't know: something no one should do, let alone a future president. The US has done the same by choosing Obama who has no serious credentials in leadership. Giving the inexperienced power is culpable foolishness.
Greg Lorriman, Leatherhead, UK
Obama is a shrewd,or what's the same, a Chicago politician. He is a poker player who wins becuse of others' mistakes. So some Great Expectations due to be deflated. The hope is he won't govern from the hip.
Felix, Mountain View,
Good article, I thought similar things myself. The days of the US going all red or all blue seem to be over. It also seems to me that people are more entrenched now, there is a strong divide between Republicans and Democrats with less people open to voting for the 'other side'.
Tony, Islington, London, UK
Excellent analysis. Thanks. There is hope for those of us moderates. Pelosi and Reid should remember that the last time the Dems ruled both Congress & the WH, the solid grip on power lasted only two years, & that the Great Depression was caused by govt interference, not the market crash of 1929.
Suzanne, Colorado Rockies, United States
The key point here is surely that Obama sits on the AMERICAN left. If he were to spend the next 8 years presiding over the greatest expansion of government that the US has ever seen, you'd still be looking at country with less welfare, lower taxes and smaller government than any European nation.
Andy B, St Albans, UK
Have a look at Obama's birth chart interpretation on the net. Wow, what a man, what a leader! He will be a man of peace and harmony. I just hope this is not too good to be true.
Alice, hove,
Even those of us who did not vote for Obama, and have philosophical differences with him, are very proud to have him as our President. He is ours too. He is a good person.
Best of all, now black children see someone who looks like them who is President.
We are closer to becoming truly color-blind
Cindy Millen, Toledo, Ohio, USA
Excellent insight! When Obama gets just 53% of the popular vote, it hardly a "mandate" Democrats and some media have called it. Such thinking is delusional, & far from it. A swing of just 3% (3.5M votes) would have reversed the results, making it one of the narrowest of Presidential elections.
Bob Evans, Lowestoft, Suffolk, Back home in Blighty
You said it Gerard. The Democrats outspent the Republicans. What may have helped Obama, is he is more pro-renewable energy (RE) , a growth industry with job opportunities.
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
Spot on Mr Baker. The moment Obama tries to foist some of the wackier socialist schemes on the American public he'll lose his inexpicable popularlity.he won becuase he was oppsoing the worst president in decades, and because he's from a mixed race - not black - family. He did not win on his policies
John Bull, Wolverhampton,
The other thing to remember is that this election represents a backlash aginst Karl Rove's ultimately destructive politics of divisiveness. Obama ran as someonw who will unite the country, this can only be achieved by governing from the center. A small majority in Congress is good.
Peter, London,
Gerard Baker again shows himself to be one of the best journalists at understanding and explaining America.
XXXKarenXXX, Near Seattle, USA