Special Report: the Road to the White House

A cold start | The candidates | Obama's controversial pastor | Doubts and celebrity | First Ladies of US comedy | Economy and the new world | Best analysis, opinion and wit | Novelist Ben Okri: a nation delivers

As in songs, novels and love affairs, the first moments matter most. In the deafening fanfare that has greeted his election, Barack Obama seems to have been listening to history, kicking off with a string of appointments, a swiftly assembled team to tackle the tottering economy, a press conference and a flood of uplifting oratory.

For if the experience of his presidential predecessors is anything to go by, the only way to deal with a sea of troubles is to dive in and start swimming, fast.

Not since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected into the grim throes of the Great Depression has anyone come to the presidency facing such a raft of problems. Another great name from history, Abraham Lincoln, was elected on the eve of the Civil War, which rent the country and left 600,000 dead.

In modern times, perhaps only Ronald Reagan entered the White House in comparable circumstances, with double-digit inflation, soaring unemployment and a frigid Cold War.

Yet all these mightily challenged presidents have something in common: in the judgment of history, each was hugely successful. The pattern of presidencies suggests that the steeper the climb, the higher the summit of achievement.

After the jubilation of Mr Obama’s victory, the reality. The federal budget deficit is approaching a trillion dollars and the economy is in trouble; a million Americans have lost their homes to foreclosure, unemployment is rising and the housing market is crumbling; war on two fronts; and Russia, Iran and North Korea are each grumbling like an angry appendix. Then there is the strain of an ageing population, ballooning health spending, and global warming.

Expectations are soaring, but confidence in the ability of government to effect change is at rock bottom, a toxic combination for any leader.

The most successful presidencies have kicked off with speed, clarity and optimisms, no matter the obstacles. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton seemed to meander into office, and paid a heavy price.

Reagan, by contrast, moved with remarkable speed and agility to tackle the nation’s most pressing problem. Within hours he had appointed two men – James Baker and Edwin Meese – to mastermind the transition; his first 87 appointments were all related to the economy.

Mr Obama seems to be moving with comparable speed, setting up an advisory panel to oversee the installation of a new administration and making a series of key appointments within hours of victory.

A president who decides his priorities while in office has already left it too late. Clinton set about tackling healthcare reform without having laid the groundwork, in personnel and political support. His first major domestic initiative failed spectacularly.

For Mr Obama, the economy is only one of a number of issues, but by far the most critical.

“Put your arm around chaos,” says Leon Panetta, the former White House chief of staff and an adviser to the President-elect.

“You better damn well do the tough stuff up front because if you think you can delay the tough decisions and tiptoe past the graveyard, you’re in for a lot of trouble. Make the decisions that involve pain and sacrifice up front.”

Another distinguishing characteristic of successful presidencies in hard times is the ability to select strong personalities and even rivals as advisers rather than the tempting yes-men and allies.

Mr Obama has indicated his intention to draw on the widest possible pool of expertise and he may, like Lincoln, bring political opponents into government.

“We need the strongest men,” Lincoln said. “These were the very strongest men. I had no right to deprive the country of their services.” FDR also surrounded himself, particularly on issues he did not fully understand, with the best and brightest, his “Brains Trust”.

FDR is probably the model to whom Mr Obama will turn most readily. He took office in 1933 with the financial system in meltdown, one in four Americans unemployed and Hitler newly in power in Germany. As the new President headed to Washington for the inauguration, his speechwriter conceded: “Terror held the country in its grip.”

Roosevelt passed a whirlwind 16 Bills in the first 100 days. It did not matter that some of the measures failed. When dealing with a commodity as elusive and fragile as economic confidence, the impression of activity is as important as effectiveness.

As FDR put it: “It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.”

Indeed, Roosevelt was paradoxically quite ineffective at tackling the economic problems that the country faced, but hugely popular for trying: unemployment was still 17 per cent when he ran for reelection in 1936, but his popularity was huge, and he won by a landslide.

Presidencies need a guiding story. Reagan offered the outlines of his plot – tax cuts, controlling spending and rebuilding the US military – from his first day in office, and stuck to his script. Clinton’s first term was marred by a plethora of plans, but an uncertain direction.

Mr Obama came to power on the basis of his extraordinary story; he now needs another transcendent narrative to persuade Americans that sacrifice is a moral and practical necessity. Truth is a dangerous commodity in the first phase of any presidency. Carter’s “Malaise” speech in 1979 was utterly honest, and politically disastrous.

Roosevelt, Reagan and Gerald Ford all benefited from the stock market’s ability to recover, and saw the turna-round begin to happen in under four years.

Economies can be mended. The nose-diving economy may be bad news for the rest of us, but for Mr Obama, eventually, it may be the opportunity for greatness. The long run, however, is exactly what he does not have.

Times Recommends

• Michael Jackson: Not the final chapter
• Indian Army spends10m rupees on golf buggies
• Brüno toned down for 15 rating