It has been a long and brutal struggle but Russia has finally declared an end to its war against separatists in Chechnya.

The fighting may be over but the killings continue. The Kremlin has bought “peace” in this turbulent southern republic by supporting the squalid dictatorship of Ramzan Kadyrov, a figure repeatedly accused of involvement in torture and murder. The former rebel, who switched sides to support Vladimir Putin, rules Chechnya with an iron fist and brooks no challenge.

Even as Kadyrov has lobbied Moscow to lift a decade-long “counter-terrorist” operation at home, there has been a spate of assassinations of Chechens in Turkey, Austria and Dubai. The victims were all regarded as opponents of Kadyrov, who has denied any involvement.

Tacitly, the Kremlin seems happy to look the other way while a settling of scores between rival clans goes on. For Putin has got what he wanted: to avenge Russia’s humiliating defeat at the hands of rebel fighters in the first Chechen war of 1994-96 and to undo the principle that ethnic republics could win their independence.

This principle threatened Russia’s existence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. By waging the second Chechen war in 1999 as Prime Minister, and then pursuing a ruthless campaign against separatist insurgents, Putin showed other minorities that the price in blood of challenging the Kremlin would be too high.

By this time, Chechnya had also become an arena for jihad, with foreign fighters joining the separatists, apparently determined to create an Islamic republic on Russia’s southern border. Kadyrov — who fought against Russia in the first war as a 16-year-old — became central to Putin's strategy of “Chechenising” the conflict by using local forces to defeat the rebels.

Ironically, Kadyrov has grown so powerful as President of Chechnya that Moscow’s grip on the republic is tenuous at best. The Kremlin has struck a Faustian bargain that allows him to rule unchallenged, provided he expresses loyalty to Russia.

Kadyrov has built Europe’s largest mosque in Grozny, the Chechen capital flattened in the war but which has now been reconstructed with federal funding that he controls. He has also introduced elements of Islamic law, such as requiring women to wear headscarves in public buildings and clamping down on alcohol sales. He advocated polygamy in Chechnya last week, even though it is illegal in Russia.

Kadyrov’s loyalty is also qualified: he repeatedly expresses devotion to Putin as Chechyna’s “saviour” but pushes for increasing independence from Moscow. He wants international status for Grozny’s airport, for instance, allowing Chechnya the right to establish its own customs posts.

He also agitated for the decision to end anti-terrorist operations because it will require central authorities to withdraw troops from Chechnya, making the Kremlin even more dependent on him.

Moscow plays along because while Chechnya is quieter, the rest of the North Caucasus is growing increasingly unstable. Neighbouring Ingushetia has been in turmoil for months, while insurgent attacks have spread to Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Having fought so hard to deny the principle that regional borders could be changed, Russia hastily undid all its work by recognising the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia after last summer’s war with Georgia. Some within the Kremlin now privately acknowledge that this has set an uncomfortable precedent that has fired the ambitions of others in the Caucasus to challenge Russia’s rule.

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