Charles Bremner
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Nicolas Sarkozy dislikes anniversaries and plans to ignore his two-year point in the Elysée Palace on Wednesday, but France is taking stock of an eccentric presidency that was born on high hopes and now wallows in deep unpopularity.
Sixty-three per cent have written off Mr Sarkozy's first 24 months as a failure, according to a poll today for Metro newspaper, with only 28 per cent holding a positive opinion.
Mr Sarkozy puts the discontent down to the global slump that hit France just as he was hoping to see results from "la rupture", the clean break that he promised with France's over-regulated, over-taxed welfare state. He is right in part because the recession has for the time being demolished his vision of a dynamic new France. His Thatcher-like promises to reward hard work with prosperity ring hollow when a fearful France is turning back to the state for succour in the face of soaring unemployment.
But disappointment with "Super Sarko" set in well before America's sub-prime disaster rebounded on the French economy last year. It resulted from a perception that he was out to help the rich, his autocratic methods and the brash new style that he brought to the monarchical presidency.
Instead of retreating to the palace and at least simulating a lofty distance from his government, Mr Sarkozy created a "hyper-presidency", running the country with a handful of advisers and behaving at times more like a self-satisfied television host than father of the nation.
He turned up the gravitas after crashing in opinion polls well before his first anniversary, but France has still not digested the initial "bling bling" phase, symbolised by his lightning romance with Carla Bruni, the Italian heiress, singer and former super-model. Mr Sarkozy has still failed to change what is seen as his vulgar side, typified by his colloquial language and fondness for taking swipes at colleagues and fellow leaders with remarks that quickly reach the media.
The aggressive style feeds the sense of injustice that has turned Mr Sarkozy into a hate figure for his opponents, mainly among the left, teachers' unions, students and state sector workers.
But the clamour of demonstrations and public abuse masks the credit that a substantial minority gives Mr Sarkozy for sticking with his promised revolution despite the crisis.
He has given ground on several fronts, such as schools and hospitals, but he is continuing with a big shrinkage of the civil service, university and tax reform and easing labour regulation. He has renewed his popularity on the right by returning to his old pet theme of law-and-order.
In one field — his handling of foreign policy — Mr Sarkozy is receiving high marks from everyone. About 70 per cent approve of his forceful leadership in Europe and on the world stage at events such as the G20 economic summit. Ms Bruni, whom he married in February last year, is now deemed to be one of his biggest diplomatic assets.
Mr Sarkozy has made no secret of his aim to win a second term in 2012. He has reason not to despair over his present unpopularity. Polls show that if the 2007 election were restaged now, he would still win hands down in the all-comers first round. The second round run-off, though, would be too close to call.
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