In a time of cruel and stubborn dictatorships in Burma, Zimbabwe and Iran, where democratic movements are foundering and hope is difficult to find, it is inspiring to consider the example of Indonesia.

Twelve years ago, it was a place of oppression and poverty, with an uncompromising dictator, rigged elections and a ruined economy. Ten years ago, it looked like a failed state, on the brink of Yugoslav-style disintegration. No one would have foreseen it — but today it is the freest and healthiest democracy in southeast Asia, which holds next week its second-ever direct presidential election.

The polls suggest that it will be won easily by the man who deserves as much credit as anyone for Indonesia’s recovery — the incumbent President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. But the complicated electoral system makes the results unpredictable, and there is still potential for the return to power of dark and unsavoury characters from Indonesia’s past.

Mr Yudhoyono’s opponents in the election on July 8 are both solid and reputable figures — his predecessor as president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, and his Vice-President, Jusuf Kalla. All three talk in broad terms about the importance of justice, the alleviation of poverty and an end to corruption. Mrs Megawati served a disappointing term as president, but benefits from her status as daughter of Indonesia’s founding president, Sukarno. Mr Kalla is a successful businessman whose party, Golkar, is a reformed version of the late President Suharto’s political vehicle.

The most striking difference between them is not their policies, or even personalities, but their running-mates. Mr Yudhoyono’s candidate for vice-president is Boediono, an eminent economist and former governor of the Bank of Indonesia. But his rivals have allied themselves with two of the most controversial characters from Indonesia’s recent history.

Mr Kalla is running with Wiranto, the former head of the Armed Forces who has been accused of crimes against humanity (although never charged) for overseeing the violent destruction of towns and villages in East Timor after that country’s vote for independence from Indonesia. Mrs Megawati has made an even more incongruous alliance — with Prabowo Subianto, a former general in the Indonesian Special Forces, and protégé of the dictator, Suharto. He defended his patron by kidnapping young human rights activists, several of whom have never been seen since — and many of them supporters of Mrs Megawati who was then the leader of the democracy movement.

The reasons for the alliances are, of course, purely political — both former generals have significant minority support, which Mr Kalla and Mrs Megawati need to shore up their own support. Opinion polls suggest that Mr Yudhoyono will win outright in next week’s election — but if he fails, he will go to a second round with his runner-up (probably Mrs Megawati) in September. There would then be frantic politicking between the rival candidates in an effort to win the supporters of the third-place loser.

Both Mr Prabowo and Mr Wiranto long ago hung up their uniforms and embraced the language and style of democratic politics. But their election to high office would, at the very least, send a negative signal to the rest of the world about the smooth course of Indonesia’s progress towards democracy.

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