Iraq has celebrated a return to sovereignty three times since the invasion more than six years ago in a carefully choreographed attempt to put an Iraqi face on what has always been an American occupation.

The latest “day of national victory” on Tuesday was the most convincing moment of transition, with the majority of US forces out of Iraqi cities. A token presence remains, however, to train and mentor the Iraqi police and army.

Most Iraqis feel that sovereignty will not be fully restored until all foreign forces leave. At the same time, many fear the exit of American troops because of the ongoing potential for violence. June was the bloodiest month in Iraq in almost a year as a rash of bombings shattered the lives of hundreds of families.

President Obama wants an expedient end to US involvement in an expensive conflict that he opposed. Mindful of the sacrifices made in terms of lives lost and money spent, however, he also seeks to leave behind a stable country, capable of securing itself and on good terms with the United States.

It is unclear whether these two goals are compatible. Leaving too hastily would create a vacuum for countries such as Iran and extremist groups such as al-Qaeda to exploit. Staying too long would be politically unpopular in the United States and Iraq as well as prohibitively costly, given the financial crisis back in Washington and growing US commitments in Afghanistan.

The timeline for the US exit is set out in a security accord with Iraq that came into force on January 1. It sees all of about 133,000 troops leaving the country by the end of 2011 — doubtlessly creating another day of national sovereignty.

The departure of US combat forces from Iraqi cities is the biggest test as to whether the timetable is feasible. Underscoring the delicate nature of the process, this move did not happen overnight – the Iraqi police and army have been gaining control of urban centres for the past year. Nor does it leave the country without US support. The Iraqi authorities can ask the US military to conduct combat operations at any time, the difference being that forces would enter cities from bases outside, rather than small outposts inside city walls.

In addition, the training and mentoring teams that stayed behind have combat soldiers to protect them — yet another layer of security should things go wrong.

The ideal outcome is that Iraqi forces alone maintain the drop in sectarian killings achieved by a surge of US troops at the start of 2007. The nightmare scenario is that the efforts of the past two and a half years crumble as the police and army fail to contain future waves of violence.

It remains to be seen which way the country will turn and how, in the event of failure, the cash-strapped Obama administration will respond.

Despite the questions, one certainty has emerged — Iraq’s cry of sovereignty is ringing increasingly true, for better or for worse.

Six years ago, on June 28, 2004, George Bush said: “The Iraqi people have their country back” as the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority disbanded and handed power to interim Iraqi leaders. No one was fooled.

At the start of 2009, however, Iraqis looked more confident when their Prime Minister declared a “day of sovereignty” to mark the start of the new security agreement with the United States. They cheered again on Tuesday, the “day of national victory”. The world must wait to see whether the smiles will last.

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