Many are convinced Roger Federer is a monarch being led to the block but no condemned man ever looked so dangerously armed and those of us whose allegiance to the Swiss genius is inviolable needn’t be shamefaced about telling ourselves that before today is over it may be Rafael Nadal who is having trouble keeping his head, or at least the thoughts inside it, in the right place. Yet we must concede that optimism owes as much to faith as to logic, for it is only by the merest fraction that the bookmakers favour the champion to move beyond the Bjorn Borg record he equalled last year and win a sixth consecutive men’s singles title at Wimbledon. Federer is best-priced at 6-5 on, Nadal at 11-10 against.

An aura of unstoppability has developed around the challenger’s present sequence of 23 matches without defeat and - though his almost grotesque annihilation of Federer on Paris clay in the final of the French Open four weeks ago is a hopelessly flawed tool for forecasting the outcome on the grass of southwest London - the Spaniard has so dramatically boosted his potency on this afternoon’s surface that his supporters are bound to believe he will decisively improve on a 2007 performance remarkable enough to take him to the brink of a Centre Court coronation. The weaponry that dooms all who face him at Roland Garros, where he has won four championships in a row and appears likely to remain invincible for as long as his prime lasts, has been brilliantly adjusted to the demands of Wimbledon and now there, too, the ruthless ferocity of his game is capable of making an opponent feel as if he is wielding a butterfly net.

While muscular ferocity is a basic element of Nadal’s armoury and one he is happy to flaunt (we must suspect he wears sleeveless tops mainly because stripping to the waist contravenes tennis etiquette), all the intimidating animal energy wouldn’t mean much if it weren’t channelled through superb technique. And over the past fortnight expert witnesses have been eulogising not only a rise in the general level of that technique but the growing success he has had in adapting it to suit conditions at Wimbledon. As the honourable, defiantly competitive loser of successive finals, he can hardly be accused of having struggled recently in SW19 but camera analysis confirms that at this championship he is benefiting especially from incorporating more variety, assured accuracy of placement and disorienting spin into his venomous serving.

He is also profiting from increased confidence in his ability to operate inside the baseline far more frequently than he does on clay and the particularly low trajectory he is imparting to his ground-strokes, though seen by some as excessively risky, has so far proved another instrument of devastation. Men confronting him ceased long ago to expect playing on grass to dilute the fear-someness of his forehand or to render less deadly the two-fisted backhand invested with a terrible blend of violence and precision by his advantage of being a natural right-hander who has chosen to be a leftie on court. He comes across as the most destructive southpaw since Marvelous Marvin Hagler.

Considering the range and substance of Nadal’s assets, there had to be a hollow ring about any sanguine predictions that accompanied Andy Murray into their quarter-final on Wednesday. Once poor Murray had been butchered 6-3 6-2 6-4, there was the inevitable discussion about what the Scot will have to do to raise his game to Nadal’s standard. But if patriotism is kept in check by reality we surely have to admit that such a convergence is wildly improbable. At 22, Nadal is just a year older than Murray and to my mind so innately superior as an athlete and a tennis player that a bridging of the gulf will be inconceivable as long as both stay healthy. If that strikes you as offensive pessimism, rather than berating me you should ring William Hill. The betting firm quotes 5-1 against Murray’s chances of ever becoming Wimbledon singles champion.

The deliciously urgent question today, of course, is whether Nadal can usurp Federer’s position as the dominant figure of tennis. That is how high the stakes are this afternoon. One fellow columnist has gone as far as declaring that the Majorcan phenomenon is poised to replace Federer as the current player most likely to be remembered as the greatest of all time. It is a bizarrely premature claim to make on behalf of somebody who has yet to win a Grand Slam event outside France at the expense of an established giant whose 12 major titles have been accumulated in England, Australia and America. But it is hard to put a limit on Nadal’s possibilities and the one certainty is that this final will be charged with historic implications.

Fortunately for those of us willing the 26-year-old Federer to continue his march towards Pete Sampras’s record total of 14 Grand Slam triumphs, he is a man comfortable with shaping the history of his sport and his appetite for doing so has shown no evidence of diminishment as he has progressed regally towards the showdown with Nadal. Refusing to lose a set was a predictable achievement and didn’t have much significance (his rival, after all, surrendered only one) but the quality of his shot-making, the familiar ease with which he was able consistently to translate boldly imagined winners into flawless execution, had to nourish his self-belief.

Since Federer and everybody else knows it is imperative that he reduces to a minimum Nadal’s opportunities to engage him in long rallies, probably the most heartening aspect of his form to this point has been the reliable excellence of his serving. With that as a foundation, he won’t require the bookies’ supportive maths to help persuade him he is justified in treating his 6-1 6-3 6-0 humiliation at the French Open as a nightmare aberration.

Rafael Nadal would be wise to assume Federer is coming in fresh and unhaunted. Not only should the young wonder anticipate being opposed by the most comprehensive repertoire of breathtakingly beautiful effectiveness tennis has ever seen, he should prepare to encounter the proud spirit of a true champion apparently revitalised by a return to what he regards as his turf. Our paramount hope must be that two immensely appealing and impressive sportsmen do justice to their gifts.

Tyson gets an earful

After it was revealed that Mike Tyson plans to travel to Melbourne in January to play in a poker tournament, a protest from Australia’s Crime Victims Support Association was predictable. But their spokesman, Noel McNamara, sounded as if he had been on the amber nectar when he said: “He is to be trotted out as a celebrity, like some kind of Mother Teresa.” Tyson has presented many unconvincing versions of himself in his time but none of them ever noticeably resembled the saint of Calcutta.

I have a fantasy about Iron Mike at the table alongside a west of Scotland character who tries to borrow money with the time-honoured expression: “Can I bite your ear?” Getting retaliation in first might be a probability.

Consistent form makes Barton a liability

MOST of Newcastle United’s experience of recidivism concerns their teams’ tendency to inflict psychological abuse on successive generations of supporters by persistently failing to tread the straight and narrow path to major trophies. But now the club are embroiled with the more basic, criminal-court kind of recidivist in the belligerent person of Joey Barton. A six-month jail term the 25-year-old United midfielder is currently serving for affray and assault in Liverpool city centre was punctuated by his appearance last week on another charge of assaulting his former Manchester City teammate Ousmane Dabo during a training session in May 2007. Since Barton previously achieved notoriety for stubbing out a cigar in a companion’s face, he is one Premier League footballer who could be said to have consistent form. At least his official record wasn’t noticeably worsened by the result of the latest case. For the Dabo attack he was given a four-month sentence suspended for two years.

His spell in prison for the street offence in Liverpool is due to end soon and the talk now is of a return to the bosom of St James’ Park under a strict set of conditions. Given the reports that those conditions will involve a wage cut, we may be forgiven for wondering if the emphasis of the exercise is on rehabilitation or protection of Newcastle’s financial investment in a player who cost them £5.8m when he was transferred from City a year ago. If Barton’s Tyneside employers are in fact hopeful of bringing about redemption they should perhaps remember how little reward their Manchester counterparts gained from paying to have him treated for anger management.

Nobody would wish to prejudice any young man’s chances of mending his ways but it seems reasonable to suspect there might be a practical football problem in welcoming back pal Joey. Is such a combustible presence conducive to the development of team spirit? Togetherness would hardly be enhanced if the coaches had to widen the bib-distributing routine at training to include the handing out of headguards and gumshields.