IT IS not enough to merely succeed; it is more important to enjoy the prospect of others failing. At the time of writing it is possible that France, Argentina and Portugal — perhaps my three least favourite teams in world football, if I forget Spain — will not be packing their stab-proof vests for South Africa next summer.

The French have been punching above their weight or resting on their laurels, whichever cliché you most approve of, for some years now. I had a few quid on them not to qualify from their group during the last European championship and the bet was undertaken not wholly out of spite and wishful thinking. European football has moved on from its fin de siècle state of grace and elegance, when France were the team to be beat. Speed has been added to the mix, as exemplified by the annoyingly dashing Spanish.

Troublingly, France look sure to qualify for a playoff with a win against Faroe Islands guaranteeing a runners-up spot. Shame, but it is nice they have struggled.

Portugal, hopefully, will have more trouble on their hands. They are in form and likely to get six points out of their last two games (at home to Hungary and Malta), but a win for Sweden in Denmark next month could mean that the Portuguese are excluded even from the playoffs. If only the Hungarians with a degree of spine could adopt a 10-0-0 formation they might nick a point in Lisbon and it’ll be goodnight Ronaldo. That means I’ll have to go into his Wikipedia entry again and add some joyous obscenities.

There is still a chance that Germany will have to chance it in the playoffs; failure to get a point in Moscow next month will, effectively, ensure that they do not qualify as top of their group. That, surely, would be too much to ask for, when we have asked the Lord for so much recently. They will get a point, through obduracy and a belief in the natural order of things. It is a good 15 years since Germany have been any good and yet they always qualify and have even during that time reached a World Cup final.

Anyway, the likelihood is that the following teams will (or already have) qualify: England, Spain, Holland, Denmark, Switzerland, Slovakia, Germany, Serbia, Italy. The eight best second-placed teams will fight it out for the final four places — which I reckon, on current results, excludes Norway, much as it would have excluded Scotland. Depending upon the draw, of course — to be made on October 19 — my guess is it could be Ukraine, Russia, France and Republic of Ireland limping along to Johannesburg as also-rans. So, no Portugal. Never mind.

Moving on to South America, watching that bloated old coke-head shepherd Argentina to footballing oblivion has given me almost as much pleasure as watching Millwall in the playoffs last season. What began as a vague stirring of excitement that Diego Maradona and the Argies might actually struggle a bit has developed into an almost constant state of euphoria these past few days — firstly as they got stuffed at home by Brazil and secondly when they lost to tiny Paraguay.

It is now highly unlikely that they will qualify directly, given their form and position in the table — and there are three teams breathing down their neck for a playoff place. Uruguay versus Argentina on October 13 will be, I suspect, a match for sensitive souls to avoid. Paraguay, Brazil and Chile will take the top three places with Diego battling it out with Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela and Colombia for the playoff berth. I’d tip Uruguay for direct qualification and, sadly, the Argies for a playoff.

If Argentina do get through, the likelihood is that they will face Honduras, who I tip to finish fourth in the Concacaf group. The top three places should be USA, Mexico and Costa Rica. Quite why this benighted region of the world, in footballing terms, is afforded three and a half places at a World Cup is a consequence (some have argued, m’lud) of political gerrymandering on the part of Fifa. I suppose it will be worth it if Honduras knock out Argentina, though. Asia is straightforward, with Japan, Australia, the two Koreas qualifying and Bahrain likely to beat New Zealand in an also-rans playoff. Africa is, after early shocks, going more or less to form with Cameroon, Ghana, Algeria, Tunisia and Cote D’Ivoire likely to qualify directly with Gabon and Egypt in for a shout as runners-up.

What is there to bother England? Other than a 1-0 defeat in the first group game to Gabon? You might worry about the Spanish, although they may be past their peak. There is the obdurate and — dare one say it — boring Brazilians, not to mention the Italians, who nobody seems to rate despite being world champions and breezing through qualifying. Don’t bet against an Italy-Brazil final.