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South Africa put the 2009 Lions party under a microscope last week. Their foremost rugby brains gathered and applied themselves painstakingly, even frantically, to the squad announced on Tuesday (rather mellifluously, I thought) by Gerald Davies, the tour manager.
What secrets lay beneath the bare list of names? Did it tell them how the Lions were going to play? The Cape Argus spoke for all. “They’re sending big men!” Look out. Others counted the number of sizeable and confrontational forwards - Sheridan, Vickery, Shaw, Hines, O’Connell, Worsley, Powell - and drew the same conclusion. The Lions, the dirty rotten scoundrels, would take on the Springboks up front.
Damn, the secret is out. Ian McGeechan’s confidential strategy has been exposed.
The shock headlines continued till the end of the week. “Lions choose big blokes who’ve been around a bit for a rugby Test series”. Incredible. Never been tried before. “Lions drop midgets and kids”. Stunning. As exciting as the revelation that the Jamaicans had decided to pick fast runners for their 100m relay squad.
Geech, the advantage of surprise seems to have been lost.
Yet did this overreaction to some blindingly obvious selections by the Lions reveal anything about South Africa and the Springboks? Perhaps.
First, they are apt to react to any suggestion of an attempt to confront them physically by charging like mad bulls at the source of the challenge. They did so in the 1997 series, only to find that the Lions had side-stepped cleverly, had already disappeared and taken with them the Test series. And I just wonder if the South African reaction senses a weakness close to their own hearts - or their own arms.
To deny the awesome power of their squad in the midfield and the back row would be an utter nonsense, but the hoary old line that South Africa are still the brutal scrummaging nation of their history has been exposed - just as it was, with a heavy symbolism, a few years ago at Twickenham when Julian White brutally (and almost literally) dismantled the body and overblown reputation of Os du Randt, godfather of South African scrummaging.
Last autumn, again at Twickenham, there was a truly delightful sight. After some substitutions, South Africa’s victorious team ended the match with three black players in the front row; Tendai “Beast” Mtawarira, Chiliboy Ralepelle and Brian Mujati. In the early transformation years, the nonwhites would always be wingers and the idea that the system is now producing strong young forwards is quite, quite marvellous.
But none of the trio or any others in the current propping pool, white or black, are anywhere near as good as Springbok history demands they should be. Perhaps there was indeed an element of unease surrounding the nonshock news that the Lions squad had eaten all the pies. Just possibly, the South Africans are not quite as sanguine as they might appear at the thought of fronton confrontation.
Yet to me, the most obvious area of strength in the Lions squad may also be an illusion. Supporters of the grand old institution that is the Munster rugby team have been known to fly off the handle at suggestions that their excellence has far more to do with their phenomenal collective willpower and efficiency than the class of their individual players.
I struggle to understand why they would stamp their feet. Can there be any higher praise than that they are so well served by their preparation and passion and attitudes, and in this case by their supporters, that they continually play well above them-selves? Is that not nine-tenths of the secret of rugby? I confidently expect them to stroll to their third Heineken title next month. The argument as to the greatness or otherwise of their component parts will be settled soon afterwards, one way or the other.
Munster had eight players in the original 2009 Lions squad, as many as all of England, four times as many as Scotland, and almost all of the eight were in key positions. With the sad loss of Tomás O’Leary, who broke his left ankle playing against the Scarlets on Friday, they are down to seven but remain the core. They have an overwhelmingly crucial role to play. If the Lions win the series, then we can add individual all-time greatness to the list of Munster qualities.
They will have none of their usual advantages, they will be way, way out of their normal comfort zone. The collective will be different, they will be playing at stadiums that make even the gleaming new Thomond Park look rather reserved and quaint, they will be exposed to the full blast of a Lions Test match, something that renders the Heineken Cup just a cosy local tiff. And they will have to dominate, not simply exist. The mental edge they have over most opposition will be absent, too. Bakkies Botha and company will give not a fig for the reputation of Munster (or of Leinster, Cardiff or anyone).
The task is monumental and the portents not promising. Of the Munster contingent, some are supremely efficient (Ronan O’Gara, Paul O’Connell and David Wallace). But the likes of Donncha O’Callaghan, Alan Quinlan (the two luckiest Lions) and Jerry Flannery have it all to do if they are to return as anything more elevated than good old Munster bangers. The discarded Tom Croft and Ryan Jones, whatever they lack this week, had class on their side.
In much of the rest of the squad you can discern clear thinking, though there are just a few too many bolters for my liking. There was a case for choosing Leigh Halfpenny or Luke Fitzgerald or (less so) Keith Earls. But to choose all three seems optimistic. Ah, people say, they have talent and a great chance of coming through on tour. But there is only a faint possibility the trio could all play twice in the first four games on tour, after which the Lions will be choosing their top team to play Western Province on the Saturday before the first Test.
The Lions were correct to select the bristling Ugo Monye and Tommy Bowe, right also to leave Delon Armitage at home. But only one of the bolters - for me, the electric Halfpenny - should have made it.
You profoundly wish there were more siege-gun boots in the squad, whether for kicking out of hand or for goal; Riki Flutey and Jamie Roberts, the two inside-centres, are considerable players in their contrasting styles but they are not the greatest kickers. The pressure on O’Gara and Stephen Jones, already enormous, will be increased. The likelihood is that in some tour games, the Lions - at some point in the match, even from the start - will be relying on a player who is not a frontline goalkicker.
At the most basic level, the emotion you feel when you read the Lions list is sadness that this era in the home unions is clearly not one of plenty. Even McGeechan could struggle to pull this one off - and yes, I do realise that was what people said in 1997.
South Africa is on alert. The physical crunch of it all will be awesome and predictable. A Lions go-to area, the place on the pitch where they know they can dominate, is difficult to discern. How horribly ironic for South Africa if the Lions hit the Boks precisely where they felt immune and they double up in pain.
Stephen Jones has been rugby correspondent of The Sunday Times for more than 20 years and is regarded as one of the sport’s most influential commentators. Twice named Sports Correspondent of the Year by the Sports Journalists' Association, he won William Hill’s Sports Book of the Year for Endless Winter.
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