Anything less than a drawn series in New Zealand will represent a desperate disappointment for Martin Johnson, who although unable to tour will have responsibility for his first international selection. England have the capacity to be infinitely superior to when they beat Ireland while the All Blacks are, on paper and current form, much weaker than the team whose brains drained in front of our very eyes in World Cup defeat against France.

There is nothing for England to fear, other than the great tradition of All Black rugby - but even that has been undermined by the other drain New Zealand has suffered, that of talent to the allure of Europe’s filthy lucre. There is no Carl Hayman and Anton Oliver in the front row, no Chris Jack in the second row, no Aaron Mauger and Luke McAlister in midfield, while Doug Howlett has winged it to Munster and Joe Rokocoko is injured. What is left must also adapt to the tighter demands of Test rugby as opposed to the fast and frenetic but oh-so-loose Super 14 tournament. One game against Ireland may not be sufficient to spare All Black blushes if Johnson gets his selection right.

It should not be that big an “if” either. Operations have ruled out the captain, Phil Vickery, and Jonny Wilkinson, making it almost impossible to fluff the key selections. I bracket the choice of a tighthead prop with that of a fly-half because it is the quality of the forward play, in the set-piece and especially the loose, where England can dominate Down Under.

Matt Stevens has been Europe’s best tighthead since before the World Cup, and he is going to be as crucial to England’s hopes as any single individual. His carrying and off-loading adds a dimension that England have lacked for too long. On the other side of the front row, Andrew Sheridan has the capacity to dynamite holes close to the contact areas and with Stevens’s Bath confrère, Lee Mears, burrowing intelligently like a rugby league half-back, England can unsettle any team with a combination of subtlety and surging from the front row.

Simon Shaw, always the understudy to Johnson, can finally benefit from the great man’s presence by being given a continued lease of international rugby. He is finishing the season formidably, and that will do nicely. He may soon have to accept time’s inevitable victory but these are Test matches with an importance all of their own. England win the series and the future will look after itself.

Steve Borthwick should be calling the lineouts from the middle, although Johnson may have one too many doubts about the iron in his soul to make him captain. If Shaw feels the pace after the first Test, Johnson has the second-Test option of turning to his old mate, Danny Grewcock. He has added soft touches to his renowned barnstorming qualities this season. Nor has age withered his capacity to hit contact and, given one final tour, undoubtedly the odd All Black.

The back row is not such an area of strength, and will have to be addressed for the future, but for the sake of this trip England must have a seven who can physically mix it with Richie McCaw. Michael Lipman is that man.

Nick Easter is out of favour with his club but his dogged disregard for any opponent makes him a solid short-term cementing option in New Zealand with James Haskell blasting more Sheridan-sized holes off the side.

Behind the scrum Johnson will turn to his Tiger teammate Harry Ellis as first-choice scrum-half, although if he is ruled out through minor surgery, Danny Care would be a bold choice ahead of the consistent Richard Wigglesworth. Playing with quick ball from his forwards and Danny Cipriani threateningly flat outside him, he is a risk worth taking, with the Sale man on the bench if the occasion overwhelms.

If Care and Cipriani is a mouth-watering half-back prospect, the combination of the Wasp and Olly Barkley is more salivating still. Outside them the warrior qualities of Mike Tindall out-muscle the worthy Test claims of Jamie Noon. Tindall is in form, earmarked as a short-term captain, and likely to thrive outside a 10 and 12 who will pass him onto the gain-line instead of looping him ball way too deep and expecting a creativity that is not part of his game. Noon is solid like-for-like cover.

Paul Sackey is a certainty on the right wing but the other two back-three positions are fascinating. I would take James Simp-son-Daniel, Topsy Ojo, Mathew Tait and Josh Lewsey, with the first-Test nod going to the Gloucester wing and the Wasps full-back. Tait’s versatility makes him ideal bench material for both matches while Ojo is a contender for the second Test either on the wing or at full-back, where he has been most accomplished this year. Ben Foden makes headlines but he also makes a few too many mistakes in this early stage of his full-back career.

Johnson will choose on form, and regardless of age. A win would be priceless. Yet there can be longer-term additional benefits if youth is given its head. In the front row, the shadow unit of Gloucester’s Nick Wood, London Irish’s David Paice and the unforgiving Bristol prop Jason Hobson are all players with potential Test futures, as is Dylan Hartley, who makes the trip as a third hooker despite a season in National Division One.

His would be my longest-term selection within the party. In the second row Nick Kennedy would be unlucky to drop out but Johnson might just remember the problems Tom Palmer used to cause him and see his extra aggression in the loose as the more bruising option. Tom Croft and the Harlequins pair of the scavenging Will Skinner and Tom Guest would be daring inclusions.

At 10, I hope Johnson indulges in two extra choices in Ryan Lamb and Charlie Hodgson, allowing both Barkley and Shane Geraghty, my back-up, to concentrate on inside-centre. There will be a serious temptation to opt for one specialist fly-half. At this level, the two contenders for the replacement berth are pure fly-halves and add nothing whatsoever in the way of versatility in an era where flexibility isa treasured commodity.

Yet Johnson should resist the temptation to make the choice between the talented 10s, not so much for the sake of the unfortunate third choice as for the entire team. Both 12s are capable of playing one slot inside their favoured position but neither convinces of their readiness to structure a match against a team such as the All Blacks.

Barkley has played plenty of rugby at fly-half without ever looking as comfortable as he has outside Butch James for Bath all season. He has vision and acceleration but the vision is a narrow one which sees what is on for himself far quicker than it does for others. He can make good quick decisions but he lacks the grand sweeping panoramic sense of control which the World Cup-winning fly-half shows every week for Bath and which the three English fly-halves all possess.

The same can be said for Geraghty, who has disappointed in a few opportunities of late. While the London Irish man brings a sense of threat to the position, there is a lack of control which tends towards too lateral an approach. Until he sees the shape rather than attempts to impose his own upon the game, he should only be considered as a centre. Were England to opt for one of these as fly-half cover, an early injury would be potentially match-losing.

So, a split of 17 forwards and 15 backs it is, with Tindall to lead England in expectation.

England in New Zealand

Stuart Barnes picks his England squad to tour New Zealand A Sheridan (Sale), N Wood (Gloucester), M Stevens (Bath), J Hobson (Bristol), L Mears (Bath), D Paice (London Irish), D Hartley (Northampton), S Shaw (Wasps), D Grewcock (Bath), S Borthwick (Bath), T Palmer (Wasps), J Haskell (Wasps), T Croft (Leicester), M Lipman (Bath), W Skinner, N Easter, T Guest (all Harlequins); H Ellis (Leicester), D Care (Harlequins), R Wigglesworth (Sale), D Cipriani (Wasps), C Hodgson (Sale), R Lamb (Gloucester), O Barkley (Bath), S Geraghty (London Irish), M Tindall (Gloucester, capt), J Noon (Newcastle), P Sackey (Wasps), J Simpson-Daniel (Gloucester), T Ojo (London Irish), M Tait (Newcastle), J Lewsey (Wasps)

June 14 v New Zealand, Eden Park, Auckland

June 21 v New Zealand, Ami stadium, Christchurch