Stuart Barnes
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WHAT a weekend. A repeat of last season’s Guinness Premiership final between Leicester and Wasps, not to mention unbeaten Sale taking on Gloucester, the team who have finished top of the Premiership regular table for the past two years.
For those intent on unearthing clues as to who the next champions of Europe will be, however, all eyes should turn to Ireland, where Leinster and Munster, the two unbeaten sides in the Magners League, collide tonight at the Royal Dublin Showground. As ever, there will be talk of the Ospreys as European contenders, but if the Celtic nations are going to throw up another Heineken Cup winner, that winner is likely to come from tonight’s clash.
While tipping Munster (7-1) is about as unoriginal as betting gets, a gentle investment in Leinster might not be the worst outlay in these days of financial panic. Place the pension on the Dubliners before tonight’s battle. Should they win, the generous odds of 12-1 will be slashed.
Unlike previous years, Munster are not treating the Magners League as a practice ground for the European campaign. Such is the strength of their squad that they have been able to rotate selection and topped the table with 14 points from a possible 15. They will be up for this one in a way they usually reserve for Heineken escapades. This rapidly growing rivalry has heft to it. Leinster have not been as impressive as Munster but they have been - Leicester-style, until Friday night at least – eking out results without dazzling. This is significant. It has been the critical factor that has eluded them at the highest reaches of European competition.
That alone should be reason for the English and French clubs to sit up, but there are many others. Leinster’s average attendance was about 15,000 last season, support that is becoming ever more fanatical. Soon they will fancy themselves as being as difficult to beat at home as Munster have always been in Limerick.
Munster’s success has galvanised the game in Ireland to the point where the capital city is desperate to usurp that most rooted of rugby regions.
And there are two even more substantial reasons to expect a stern challenge this season. One of them is South African, the other Australian. CJ van der Linde is one of the fiercest (and fastest) props on the planet. In an area where Leinster have been brutally exposed he will impose an edge. The problems have not been so glaring in the back row, although teams such as Munster (in the 2006 semi-final) have revealed this area to be deficient against Europe’s finest. To address this weakness, Rocky Elsom, a bludgeoning Wallaby blindside flanker, has been recruited. He will add presence in the line-out and the superb angles of his broken-field running will multiply the options with which Leinster will test defences.
No longer will the pressure invariably be upon those brilliant backs to bail out the pack. Once these two southern hemisphere powerhouses are at full tilt the attacks will come from every conceivable angle. It is not impossible that Munster and Leinster might meet again in Edin-burgh to contest the Heineken Cup final.
These are early days in the Premiership but, going into this weekend, the most notable aspect of the league was the thrilling proximity of one team to another, match after match. A horseracing handicapper could not be more delighted with these bunched finishes. That is all well and good if you are a handicapper but to win rugby’s Classic, the Heineken Cup, teams need a thoroughbred’s pedigree.
When two-year-old horses finish in a heap the expert racing eye immediately questions the value of the form, the other contenders - some inferior - having been so close to the winner. So it has been for most of the Premiership’s first month: Leicester have squeezed out narrow win after narrow win until Wasps, struggling to get to grips with life after Lawrence and Law 15 at the breakdown, turned the tables on Friday night; Gloucester have grumbled and growled without convincing; Sale have been strong but stilted.
Harlequins are producing some great rugby but lack the experience to win this event. As with Bath they have the capacity to shock anyone on their day, but neither are likely to have enough days. The first three weeks of nail-biting matches made for great entertainment but indicated there is a shortage of overwhelming English strength for the Heineken Cup. The bookmakers sense as much and they rarely make judgmental errors. Wasps, Leicester and Bath are around the 10-1 mark, with Toulouse 4-1 favourites.
Of course, the flipside is massively positive for the English competitors in the European Challenge Cup. The tournament struggles to make an impact because it has developed into a consolation prize for the lower-league Premiership teams. Suddenly the thin line between the best and the rest plays into English hands, magnifying the strength of the Premiership and its competitive nature. Nobody can dispute that the Premiership is a magnificent tournament - but will Ireland produce the magnificent team?
Your chance to hear Dallaglio
This year’s Obolensky Lecture will be delivered by Lawrence Dallaglio, OBE
The lecture, hosted by The Sunday Times and the UK Parliament All-Party Rugby Union Group, will be on Tuesday, October 14 at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London from 7pm
n Sunday Times readers wishing to attend can write to sportletters@sunday-times.co.uk giving their name, address and daytime phone number. The applications will be chosen by ballot
Stuart Barnes is remembered as one of the most gifted players of his generation, representing Bath, England and the British Lions. Acclaimed for his autobiography, Smelling of Roses, he now commentates for Sky Sports and writes brilliantly incisive analyses for The Sunday Times
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