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Killers can come with the prettiest faces. Dan Carter, New Zealand pin-up boy and underwear model, is not the sort of man one imagines Martin Johnson trembling over, though the manager and his England team have every reason to see the world’s most gilded talent looming, all black, in their nightmares.
Taken on the bare statistics, we can argue that Carter alone has been overwhelmingly too good for England in the six Tests he has started against them. New Zealand have won all six encounters, with the fly-half amassing 120 personal points. In contrast, England, through the combined effort of all 22 players, have stumbled to a derisory 86 points. On average, the scoreboard reads Carter 20, England 15 since he was first named a starter against them four years ago.
Nobody should be working harder in the next week than Mike Ford, England’s defence coach. Carter is a devastating runner from fly-half. He has an astonishing try count of 25 in 56 internationals (not counting yesterday’s Test); the man is in a league of his own.
Alas for England, as with his overall point-scoring, he has a predilection for upping the averages against the men in white. Six games and four tries for Carter, two tries every three games. And when he is not single-handedly tearing Ford’s defensive system to pieces, he orchestrates the waves of attack that crash through flimsy white barriers.
Here’s one more statistic. Six starts for Carter against England and 23 tries by the All Blacks. The defence that went through the semi-final and final of the World Cup last year without conceding a try is porous to the tune of four tries a game against the spells of Carter and his colleagues. There is only one Dan Carter and, from the perspective of England, thank goodness.
He announced himself to the general British and Irish sporting public in the second Test of the Lions series in 2005, when he delivered the greatest performance of fly-half play it has been my privilege to witness in 35 years. Some handy operators have worn the No 10 shirt in that period but none of them - Bennett, John, Ella, Larkham, Mehrtens, Porta or Wilkinson - have come close to the majesty of his performance that night in Wellington. Barely one year into his international career, Carter scaled the heights of greatness. And still he soars.
There is nothing obvious in this talent other than the met-ronomic accuracy of the boot nine days out of 10. The hands are not as quick as Mark Ella’s were, the feet lack the frenzied speed of that Welsh wizard Phil Bennett and the shoulder is not as firm as Jonny Wilkinson’s was in the tackle. To capture his bewitching ability is not easy; try to get a hold of what makes him so good and he oozes away from the easy answer. Ah, that is what he does better than any of the great 10s, oozes.
When England have tried their damnedest to stop Carter in full flow, the task has proved as impossible as checking the passage of a stream with pebbles; you think one avenue is blocked and he diverts into another channel. The acceleration is all the more devastating for its seamlessness. There is a channel down which all defences love to see the fly-half run. It is created by pushing up in an umbrella-shaped line, with the inside-centre rushing to cut off the pass, thus forcing the fly-half into a corridor where an aggressive flanker can bear down on him.
Carter loves this channel. It breaks all known laws of fly-half play but he goes into what is usually an area of certain destruction and comes out the other end travelling as unruffled as he was when entering the trap.
Pace, balance and tremendously strong hips combine to befuddle the best England can throw at him. How? The reason for the complete absence of Carter control by England became horribly apparent when watching him train one day and England prepare their defence for him the next in New Zealand five months ago.
Carter rarely takes the ball standing still; he tends to be on the move in a slightly diagonal direction away from the forwards, moving towards the space between the 10 and 12. English defenders have not been able to push Carter where they want him; he sets the agenda for the defence. The initial movement before he takes the ball makes the change of pace all the greater and it makes the threat of him, as a runner, all the more obvious.
Players are sucked into his orbit because of his individual threat and that makes the space for the wider pass or the short ball to the growing presence of Ma’a Nonu. Playing on the gain line, there is no room for defensive manoeuvre when he slides the chip behind the onrushing defenders. Time and again opponents are caught flat-footed by the grubber kick.
And then there is the lofted crossfield kick into the waiting arms of the wingers. Kicking, running, passing, he is always on the move either in training or during matches, when he is usually one subtle step ahead of the English defence.
That is how Carter operates. England, before the second Test in June, trained with Charlie Hodgson as Carter. The moves Hodgson attempted were those the All Blacks used but the fly-half stood flat-footed to receive the ball and England, accordingly, prepared for a fluid force against a static Carter. The extra two paces make all the difference but Mike Ford’s session seemed not to allow for that.
Watch out for Carter running diagonally across the field, pulling the entire England defence with him, then hooking a left-footed kick back in the direction from which he has run. It works because his individual threat is so great that, unless you control his movement, he will always take a defence where he wants you.
Both Australia and South Africa have had success against him because they employ a more aggressive blitz defence, which can force Carter back on to his right foot and into the heavy traffic where the forwards await him. He has been known to emerge from the bottom of a breakdown flustered. But neither Ford, nor Phil Larder before him, has yet to comprehend the nature of this particular fly-half.
England’s drifting defensive system plays into Carter’s and New Zealand’s hands. Maybe Ford thinks one man cannot be allowed to force a complete change of defensive strategy, but as both a try-scorer and crea-tor, the record of Carter against England suggests the home team will continue to be candy for the All Black fly-half until they consider him the unique attacking talent that he is.
If the England management cannot come up with the flexible thinking to channel the fluid force of Carter into areas they want him to roam he will, yet again, beat England on his own on Saturday.
Stuart Barnes is remembered as one of the most gifted players of his generation, representing Bath, England and the British Lions. Acclaimed for his autobiography, Smelling of Roses, he now commentates for Sky Sports and writes brilliantly incisive analyses for The Sunday Times
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