The Lions can lose the lineouts and win the series, but if the battle at the breakdown is lost so too is hope of a third series win in South Africa. Hence the much-maligned decision to sacrifice the towering potential of Tom Croft for the nefarious tricks of Alan Quinlan.

More than any other selection, this one reveals the thinking behind the Lions’ strategy. Gerald Davies opened Tuesday’s press conference by saying they intended to play “smart rugby”. For smart rugby, read Munster rugby – and for Munster rugby, read brilliance at the breakdown.

No other team in Europe have a capacity to turn over opposition possession like the men in red. No other side have the nagging habit of turning high-class set-piece possession into low-grade, unusable stuff, forcing the scrum-half to dig his heels into the breakdown for a ball that will not see the light of day until the defensive wall is realigned and waiting for the next attack.

More often than not it is a sly Quinlan boot, a strong hand, whatever it takes to wreck offensive dreams of quick possession. In last season’s Heineken Cup final, I made Quinlan my man of the match because of the way he sabotaged Toulouse’s attack. He made Fabien Pelous’ life such a misery that the grand old man of French rugby snapped, delivered a contemptuous kick up the Irishman’s rear, and was consigned to the sin-bin. Ronan O’Gara kicked the penalty and Munster took advantage of being a man up to win another Heineken Cup.

That may be some way short of the idealistic purity of Lions lore, but the 1997 team won by defending and the legends of 1974 fought as furiously with their fists as they ran with JJ Williams and Andy Irvine on the wings.

Ian McGeechan’s first series win as a coach was based around unsettling Australia, with Robert Jones winding up the cog of the Wallaby team, Nick Farr-Jones, at every opportunity. The Lions are historically at their best in a scrap and Quinlan, Stephen Ferris and Joe Worsley are all adept in the art of the rugby streetfight.

The Lions could have opted for more lineout firepower but there is still no guarantee they would have achieved parity with the finest operators. Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha and Juan Smith have claims to be the world’s best in their respective positions. Croft has the potential to compete with these men, but the learning curve was bound to be steep.

Croft also has the speed to be a sensational attacking force, yet defence is the god to which this squad bows. The concession of the lineout, if that is what happens in the Test matches, is a battle the Lions are prepared to lose, but only if they can retreat to the gain line and no further, winning the battles there.

Winning the breakdown does not need something special from Quinlan at every contact; it means guaranteeing that no matter how fast Schalk Burger, Pierre Spies and Smith clatter into opposition, the ball comes out far, far slower. Sides can win matches without set-piece dominance but they can’t win if they fail to slow the opposition phase-ball.

The Lions have two ways to stop South Africa playing at a pace that would overwhelm the tourists’ defensive effort; one is through preventing them winning initial set-piece ball, the other is through masterful work at the breakdown. The latter is the more likely route to success and the path chosen, Quinlan playing the role of the roadside signpost for the team. Whether he starts the Test matches or not, his knowledge at the point of contact will be as important as any coached information. Watching Burger, the Springboks’ mighty openside, careering into the Wellington Hurricanes last weekend and seeing Victor Vito, the opposition blind-side, strip him of possession a few times must be as close as one gets to the template McGeechan wishes to build for the forthcoming tour.

Behind the scrum, the Lions are fortunate to have the best defensive centre on the planet. The legs of Brian O’Driscoll may not pump with quite the same pace as in the past but over the contact area he remains an arch for the ages, an edifice that will not be moved on any but his own terms. Low-slung, big-hipped, mightily determined, he is as infuriating a barrier to quick ball as any flanker on the planet. He does for Ireland and Leinster what Richie McCaw does for New Zealand. If he can do likewise with the Lions, he will be a hero even should he fail to make a single break in the series.

Think back to his determination in the Heineken Cup quarter-final against Harlequins. The English club monopolised possession and territory but lost the match because they failed to manufacture a conveyor belt of quick ball to stretch the Irish defence enough.

Harlequins supporters will also emphasise that points have to be kicked in tight games and on that day they were not, so therefore the Lions template I am envisaging is too simplistic. But stop and consider the opposition.

The one area of their game that is not world-class standard is their goalkicking. The set-piece was the foundation of their World Cup triumph but it was the unerring boot of Percy Montgomery that turned pressure into points in the final. Montgomery has retired from international rugby and South Africa lack anybody with his metro-nomic tendencies. Ruan Pienaar and Frans Steyn are the likeliest kickers but neither is proven as a regular Test marksman.

Cast the mind back to 1997. McGeechan is a man who treats his rugby history with due deference. The Springboks went into that series without a proven goalkicker. In the series-sealing triumph in Durban, Neil Jenkins kicked his few opportunities while a rookie called Montgomery failed to handle the pressure of the occasion.

The Lions repeatedly spent an age on their own try-line but the knowledge that the home side were likely to miss any penalty the tourists conceded enabled men such as Tim Rodber and Lawrence Dallaglio to release the pressure valve by conceding a penalty when the struggle became too intense. Croft’s potential has deferred to Quinlan’s cunning because the Lions are looking for history to repeat itself.

It may not make for beautiful rugby but it might work.