Michael Vaughan found it hard to disguise his admiration for the South Africa team as he looked forward to what promises to be a massively challenging npower Test series starting at Lord’s on Thursday.

As the England captain admitted, these opponents are strong in many departments, including leadership. This was a big concession, given that the last Test series between the two sides ended with Vaughan and Graeme Smith at each other’s throats, Vaughan calling Smith “The Witness” after the South Africa captain testified against him at a referee’s hearing, Smith calling Vaughan “queer”, for reasons never fully apparent.

Setting aside a freakish defeat to India last summer that owed a lot to the weather, England face the real danger of losing a home series to a Test team other than Australia for the first time this century. In victory or defeat, this series could mark a turning point in the fortunes of the national team. There are arguments in favour of either outcome, although there are more reasons for pessimism than optimism.

Let’s be pessimistic first. In Dale Steyn, South Africa hold the one ace in either pack, a bowler capable of turning a game in a few overs. On current form he is the nearest thing there has been to Waqar Younis since Waqar retired five years ago, a master at swinging balls off a full length. Vaughan will not have forgotten the mess Steyn made of his stumps in Port Elizabeth in 2004. South Africa also have the second fastest bowler on either side in Morne Morkel, at least until Andrew Flintoff returns.

Speaking in Loughborough on Friday, Vaughan admitted his attack lacked the pace of old. “We don’t have bowling of 90-95mph,” he said, “but it’s not always about that. We have an attack that relies more on the control side.” He would never have said that during the Duncan Fletcher era, but what else can he say when Flintoff and Steve Harmison are, for differing reasons, not part of the squad? Flintoff’s absence gives the South Africans a huge boost because he had an enormous influence on the last two series between the teams. It would be easy, too, to underestimate Harmison’s contributions, which go beyond merely the wickets he takes.

Vaughan hinted that Flintoff may miss the second Test as well as the first, though this could depend on how England fare without him. “It was the right decision to let him play another week [for Lancashire],” Vaughan said. “Hopefully another week will see him get more overs in his legs and more time in the middle, and maybe he’ll be able to play in the second or if not the third game. We will see how he comes through the next couple of weeks and how we look as a team.”

If Flintoff does not return until the third Test, South Africa might by then have recorded wins at Lord’s and Leeds, scenes of their victories in 2003. If Flintoff’s availability is one concern, Vaughan’s readiness is another. His right knee, much operated upon, is playing up again and he conceded that he was withdrawn from Yorkshire’s FP Trophy semi-final yesterday because it had required another injection of a fluid that lubricates the knee joint. Four Tests in five weeks will be a severe test of his fitness.

Even if Vaughan is physically okay, there is no getting away from the corrosive effects of England's split captaincy. This situation has been in place for 15 months and time has done nothing to suggest the strategy benefits Vaughan (apart from his wobbly knee) or Paul Collingwood, who leads the limited-overs outfits.

Indeed, the picture grows increasingly confused. The form of both captains is fragile and if the incident at the end of the Oval ODI is anything to go by, there are fewer players than ever blessed with the necessary qualities of leadership. “Divide and misrule” might be England’s motto.

South Africa, by contrast, are led in all forms by Smith, and with increasing confidence. Before drawing 1-1 in India South Africa had won their previous six Test series. Smith has matured greatly since Vaughan last crossed swords with him in the Test arena. In those days, Smith exhibited the insecurity of a young man who had been catapulted into the captaincy. He went out of his way to convince everyone, not least himself, that he was worthy of the job. His posturing raised the hackles of senior players and failed to convince opponents who noticed he didn’t always walk as he talked. But now, Smith has plenty of younger players under him prepared to follow his lead unquestioningly. Like Vaughan, he has won nine of his past 12 series. His team is settled and more free of political interference than it has been for years.

On paper, South Africa’s batting looks much stronger. In Jacques Kallis they have a batsman whose centuries give virtual immunity against defeat, and in AB de Villiers someone who has made a double-century at No 6. England have failed to total in excess of 400 in the first innings for more than a year.

So what is there to feel optimistic about? Well, South Africa may claim to be settled but England are set to name the same XI for the sixth Test in a row. They also possess the best spin bowler in Monty Panesar and, historically, South Africa have been suspect against top-class spin.

South Africa’s record against swing bowling is also sketchy – witness how they fared against James Kirtley at Trent Bridge in 2003 and Matthew Hoggard at the Wanderers in 2005. Ryan Sidebottom and James Anderson will take note and heart. Nor do South Africa have, in Smith and Neil McKenzie, a rock-solid opening partnership. McKenzie is an opener customised out of a middle-order dasher and Smith’s record is suspect against teams that swing the new ball. He averages 22 against Australia and 24 against England since the second of his two double-centuries in the 2003 series. England, too, are in five-day mode after their recent series against New Zealand, while most of the South Africans have been playing in the Indian Premier League since ending their series in India in April.

England’s batsmen may be short of runs but the prospect of Flintoff returning should concentrate minds. As Vaughan said, his imminent return has got to drive them on, “to make sure you’re not the one that misses out”. And in Kevin Pietersen England have a batsman who is desperate to make a mark against the land of his birth. The visitors start favourites but don’t rule out the following: South Africa to win at Lord’s, forcing England into radical change that includes recalls for Flintoff, Harmison and Matt Prior, which in turn results in South Africa being denied overall victory, just as happened in 1994, 1998 and 2003.

The last seven series

ENGLAND
v Pakistan 2006 (home) Won 2-0
v Australia 2006-07 (away) Lost 5-0
v West Indies 2007 (home) Won 3-0
v India 2007 (home) Lost 1-0
v Sri Lanka 2007 (away) Lost 1-0
v New Zealand 2008 (away) Won 2-1
v New Zealand 2008 (home) Won 2-0

SOUTH AFRICA
v India 2006-07 (home) Won 2-1
v Pakistan 2007 (home) Won 2-1
v Pakistan 2007 (away) Won 1-0
v New Zealand 2007 (home) Won 2-0
v West Indies 2007-08 (home) Won 2-1
v Bangladesh 2008 (away) Won 2-0
v India 2008 (away) Drawn 1-1

ENGLAND V SOUTH AFRICA

All Tests: England 54, South Africa 26, drawn 50

Since 1994: England 8, South Africa 8, drawn 12

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