Mervyn King, long-time Worcestershire CCC diehard, would be far more cautious about pronouncing any prolonged downturn in Australian cricket than he was in declaring the British recession in Leeds on Tuesday evening. He would need many more figures and much more evidence than a single defeat at India’s hands in one five-day Test match in Mohali.

He would, of course, be right. Among the “indicators” any cricketing Mervyn — Hughes, perhaps — should be analysing before the next statement are two more Tests against India and series at home and away against South Africa. Only if further defeats follow might he risk a forecast of next summer’s results. For the time being, talk of an Aussie recession would be dangerously premature.

India are expanding in all cricketing directions. Where it matters most, in Test cricket, they have a perfectly balanced side just now. But Sourav Ganguly has already announced his retirement at the end of this series and four others must follow soon. Anil Kumble, at 38, is two years older than Ganguly, one of his predecessors as captain, and may be obliged to hand the reins more permanently to Mahendra Singh Dhoni after this series or the next one against England before Christmas. (Only two Tests, alas, so hardly a “series”.)

England will no doubt have their problems against spin in Ahmedabad and Bombay, either with Kumble or with the two flightier, more classical wrist spinners vying for his place, Piyush Chawla and Amit Mishra. ECB policy-makers and Geoff Miller — a party to the premature selections of the likes of Liam Plunkett, Sajid Mahmood and Darren Pattinson — might heed the lesson of Mishra’s immediate success: he has been around for eight seasons and knows his game.

For all that, Kumble, of all the great leg spinners perhaps the least likely to give you a long hop, a full toss or a half-volley, and Ganguly will not be easily replaced. The other three veterans, Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid and V. V. S. Laxman, may hang on a little longer to make way for Yuvraj Singh and to ease the entry of the likes of Suresh Raina, a dazzlingly fluent left-hander.

Dravid is 35 and his embarrassment in the Indian Premier League this year must have made him think about fading powers. Tendulkar is also 35, but apparently insatiable, for runs and the accompanying wealth. Recent injuries have probably been blessings in disguise and the day of national mourning has therefore been postponed, but he is like a vastly experienced and respected senior member of the pride of lions now, no longer the leader. Laxman will be 34 on Saturday week, so he could go on for some time too, but, beautiful as he is in full flight, he has always been one to miss the odd wildebeest.

It is not a bad analogy as far as the Australians are concerned, because they are used to killing and they do not take kindly to being wounded. India, so hugely superior in spin after the retirements of Shane Warne, Stuart MacGill and Brad Hogg, should go on to win the series. They were helped by the absence of the injured Stuart Clark in the second Test, but are not about to produce a couple of greentops. The Australian administrators put themselves at a disadvantage out of principle by denying Andrew Symonds a place on this tour for disciplinary reasons.

Matthew Hayden may soon have bullied his last fast bowler, but there is no denying that that Australia have the best-organised production line of cricketers, from school to stadium, of any country. They may be able to cover up the sudden, and historically extremely rare, weakness in spin during their three series before the Ashes, against New Zealand, who will have Daniel Vettori to remind them of the imbalance, and South Africa, who have no top-class spinner. Beau Casson, the left-arm wrist spinner who took three wickets on his Test debut in Barbados, was overlooked for this tour but he will no doubt come again. Given the genius of the likes of Bill O’Reilly and Clarrie Grimmett, it is, incidentally, an oddity that only eight Australia spinners have taken more than 100 Test wickets, two of them in the past ten years.

The list of reserves in all other areas is strong. Phil Jaques, who has gone home with back trouble, averages 47 from 11 Tests. Shaun Marsh, his replacement, has the same average from eight one-day internationals and waits only for a chance in a five-day game. Mike Hussey’s younger brother, David, is a cricketer and person of the highest calibre and Shaun Tait, the bowler who did so much in the all-conquering World Cup campaign only last year, has regained his appetite for the game.

Much will depend on Ricky Ponting’s captaincy and his runs or lack of them. In eight Tests in India before this tour, hounded by Harbhajan Singh, he managed to average 12.28. Yet he remains fifth in the world in the Reliance Mobile Test batting rankings and England know all about his brilliance and resilience. On the sub-continent there may be further evidence of an Antipodean crisis emerging from the third Test at the Feroz Shah Kotla in Delhi on Wednesday, but I would not bank on it, even with a government guarantee. As for anyone jumping to any conclusions about next summer and the Ashes, allow yourselves a few moments of quiet, calm deliberation before contacting the nearest bookmaker.