It might be different if he were English, but the Australia selectors and directors are not about to drop Ricky Ponting, their captain, despite India’s 172-run victory in the fourth Test in Nagpur yesterday.

Australia’s 2-0 defeat was their first in a series since 2005 and their biggest since 1988-89 — when West Indies, under Viv Richards, beat them 3-1 — but if they lose in England next summer it would probably be a different matter, although if that happens the pugnacious little Taswegian would no doubt fall on his sword anyway.

Another disappointing series with the bat for Ponting, allied to defeat in any of the forthcoming series at home against New Zealand and home and away to South Africa, might hasten the moment, but anyone rushing to take yesterday’s shortened odds of 15-8 against England regaining the Ashes next year should remember how Ponting responded to his team’s previous defeat in a series. They won 19 of their next 20 Tests, including five out of five against England.

This week in Bombay, Andrew Flintoff, reflecting on that wretched tour in 2006-07, promised that he would never leave Kevin Pietersen, the captain, as isolated and unsupported as he felt when his team imploded. England are not going to win 5-0 in the series that starts in Cardiff next July, but the chances are increasing that, far from having to stand by his captain in a leaking vessel, Flintoff will be to Pietersen what he was to Michael Vaughan in 2005: the viceadmiral in a conquering battleship.

First, England have to build the same momentum this winter that they did when overcoming West Indies and South Africa in 2004. That means doing better against India in the two Tests next month than Australia have just done in their four-match series. Having lost at home to South Africa in a relatively close series this year, England cannot be overconfident, but they have the quality in fast bowling in Flintoff, James Anderson and the revived Stephen Harmison, with Stuart Broad and Ryan Sidebottom in support. Simon Jones still hovers ominously from an Australian viewpoint.

The key to victory in India, and perhaps next summer, might be Monty Panesar if, after a disappointing 2008, his exposure to the accumulated wisdom of Mushtaq Ahmed, the new spin-bowling coach, during his time with the development squad in India in the next few weeks, can add an extra dimension to his accuracy and power of spin before he joins his Test colleagues. It was the loss of three tosses and the lack of an experienced top-class spinner that made Australia second best in the series just concluded. Jason Krejza promises well with his classical, off-spin action and his attacking line outside the right-handers’ off stump, but even for 12 wickets in his first Test match, 358 runs was a lot to concede in return.

If Krejza finishes his career with the same average of 29.83 as his present one he will have done very well, but he is not going to be a Shane Warne and, at 25, he has a long way to go even before he catches Panesar. Both have to develop a missing art: in Krejza’s case, a ball that genuinely turns from leg to off; in Panesar’s, a proper arm ball. Compare yesterday’s enforcers: Harbhajan Singh, who has the doosra, and Amit Mishra, a seasoned leg spinner with a top-spinner and a googly.

Although Sourav Ganguly followed Anil Kumble into retirement yesterday, India, whose victory lifted them to second behind Australia in the ICC Test rankings, have a perfectly balanced team in their own conditions, now under the exciting and enterprising command of Mahendra Singh Dhoni. Australia look sure to welcome back a chastened Andrew Symonds and Shaun Tait, the fastest of their bowlers, who, like Harmison, has rediscovered his enthusiasm for international cricket. They will refresh a jaded team, but New Zealand will still pose some instant questions for them.

The side who beat England in Australia last time was, like India’s now, vastly experienced and extraordinarily talented. Since the start of that series Australia have lost Shane Warne, Adam Gilchrist, Glenn McGrath, Justin Langer and Damien Martyn, and Matthew Hayden cannot be far from retirement. Under Mark Taylor, Steve Waugh and Ponting, Australia have been the best team in the world since unseating West Indies in 1995. Now they are one of a leading pack that includes India, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and, yes, England.

Until this autumn, their replacements have slotted in almost seamlessly: Mike Hussey for Martyn; Stuart Clark for McGrath; Phil Jaques for Langer; Brad Haddin for Gilchrist. But, of these, only Hussey may be described as an advance and the unexpected retirements of Stuart MacGill and Brad Hogg have left no convincing replacement for the invincible Warne. There lies Australia’s Achilles’ heel.

A typically bold and imposing innings by Hayden gave them a theoretical chance of reaching a target of 382 yesterday, but the excellent Ishant Sharma took two more wickets to become man of the series and Harbhajan and Mishra whittled out batsmen who were obliged to attack.

Ponting said that he was upset by suggestions by Allan Border — the former Australia captain, with Sunil Gavaskar, presented the Border-Gavaskar trophy to Kumble and Dhoni — that he was more concerned about a possible ban than a quick end to the India innings. He claimed that he had an obligation “to play the game in the right spirit” by trying to bowl 90 overs in the day. Australia are not alone in failing too often to manage it.

Matches before the Ashes

Australia v New Zealand (home, two Tests): Brisbane, Nov 20-24; Adelaide, Nov 28-Dec 2; v South Africa (home, three Tests): Perth, Dec 17-21; Melbourne, Dec 26-30; Sydney, Jan 3-7; v South Africa (away, three Tests): Johannesburg, Feb 26-Mar 2; Durban, Mar 6-10; Cape Town, Mar 19-23).

England v India (away, two Tests): Ahmedabad, Dec 11-15; Bombay, Dec 19-23; v West Indies (away, four Tests): Jamaica, Feb 4-8; Antigua, Feb 13-17; Barbados, Feb 26-Mar 2; Trinidad, Mar 6-10. Home, two Tests, opponents to be confirmed: Lord’s, May 7-11; Riverside, May 15-19.