Who will win the World Twenty20?

If it weren’t such a lottery, for all the format’s growing sophistication, I would say one of the top three in both the five-day and 50-overs versions: South Africa, Australia or India. But the safest bet should surely be on England’s women.

When Claire Taylor was asked whether she would prefer to win the World Twenty20 or retain the female Ashes, a one-match affair that means little to anyone except those closely involved, she naturally plumped for the former. The four-day game against Australia is oddly timed to start on the second day of the Cardiff Test when virtually all eyes are going to be on Wales not Worcester. It will be a private affair, however passionately it may be played. But if the women win their Twenty20 tournament that starts next Thursday and the men win the Ashes, it really would be something.

For the men, whatever they may feel or say should they gain momentum and reach the final on June 21, winning the Ashes is far more important. Personally I do not mind if England don’t win the Twenty20, however welcome it would be for them to break their long and embarrassing duck in ICC tournaments. Wednesday’s warm-up game against West Indies at Lord’s promised well enough, not least for Luke Wright and Ravi Bopara, whose luck against them in the past few weeks has almost matched the polished brilliance of his strokeplay.

Certainly Paul Collingwood’s team could win but home sides seldom triumph in world tournaments. It is more important that the competition starting today should coincide with good weather and kindle the sort of excitement generated in South Africa two years ago, the catalyst for India’s cricketing epiphany.

The ECB, naturally, would love victories on all fronts to wipe from the memory its year of embarrassing attachment to the Texan tycoon whose name is mysteriously absent from its recently published annual report. Allen Stanford has become, it seems, the Lord Lucan of cricket. It is the women, however, who are much the more likely to bring the smile back to the face of the English game. To rephrase the words of Lady Bracknell, to win one World Cup may be regarded as good fortune; to win both would look like the work of real champions.

Like the men, the women had an enforced change of personnel this week, although the withdrawal of Anya Shrubsole, the 17-year-old Somerset seam bowler, ought not to be quite so serious as that of Andrew Flintoff. Danielle Hazell, at 21 a relative veteran, replaces her. She comes from Durham, plays for Yorkshire and is an off-spinning all-rounder who has already won one of the Chance to shine contracts that have enabled the best women cricketers to spread the game’s gospel to schools and clubs while at the same time allowing the players to become more or less full-time professionals.

It undoubtedly helped them to win the 50-overs World Cup this year and it has made at least minor celebrities of the multitalented Taylor and her captain, Charlotte Edwards. Others will follow, no doubt, if the men’s competition builds up a satisfactory head of steam to ensure that there is a large Sky television audience, as well as full houses on the ground, when the women’s semi-finals and finals are played at the same venues, and on the same days, as the men’s.

That assumes that the England women do as expected. Their overall Twenty20 record is actually modest — six matches won, five lost of their 11 played in this format — but their recent surge of form in all forms of the game includes three straight Twenty20 wins over South Africa. They have another talented cricketer in the other Taylor, Sarah, the wicketkeeper-batsman, and the fielders around her are fitter and better drilled than any of their rivals. They will hardly need their marketing recruit from the The Tatler should they prevail when the first final reaches its climax at lunchtime on Sunday, June 21.

It is, indeed, the players who normally play away from the limelight — the women and the semi-amateur men from Ireland, Scotland and the Netherlands — who have most to gain from the next 17 days, forgetting for a moment the hordes of gamblers and enthusiasts in India who will follow their team with their own unique fervour. The other beneficiary should be the ECB, whose tournament organiser, Steve Elworthy, has done everything to ensure success, helped by a substantial advertising budget.

“All our ticket prices have been tailored to ensure a value day out for fans, with nearly all match days incorporating two games and showcasing four teams,” he said. What he, the volunteer helpers, players and spectators all need is plenty of sunshine.