Andrew Flintoff and Duncan Fletcher had four important selection decisions to make when they arrived in Australia only 15 days ago. Plans to let performances decide between Geraint Jones and Chris Read, James Anderson and Sajid Mahmood, Paul Collingwood and Ian Bell, and Ashley Giles and Monty Panesar had to be shelved after the 166-run defeat by a Prime Minister’s XI in Canberra.

Jones and Anderson were told that they would be in the XI for the first Test in Brisbane, which starts on Thursday, Marcus Trescothick’s departure meant that Collingwood and Bell would both play and only the Giles/Panesar issue remained, at least until Stephen Harmison’s wobble last week.

Whether it was the consequence of the cortisone injection or the hard line taken with him by Fletcher, the coach, in particular, Harmison has looked broader, taller, straighter and faster in the nets in Adelaide in the past two days. He has to do it in the middle, but when he is confident and bowling with the easy rhythm that was missing at the Brit Oval in the final Test last season and when pain handicapped him in Sydney against New South Wales, he instantly becomes the greatest threat to Australian peace of mind, even after a mere 25 overs on the tour and modest figures of three for 122.

One choice remains, therefore: the spinner. The educated guess is that it will be Giles, who has been walking about with a seraphic smile simply as a result of being able to play again after three operations since last December. The first attempt to repair his troublesome hip in England ended in failure. Then came the almost guaranteed success of the Gilmore groin surgery.

Once back in the gym at Edgbaston, however, it became obvious to Giles that his career might have to end if he could not sort out the arthritic condition in the hip. In California, it was third time lucky because disciplined adherence to his American surgeon’s instructions on rehabilitation, the faith of the England selectors and hard work in the nets in India have got him back to the verge of the Test team.

My choice on Thursday would be Panesar, but only by a whisker. Already, after ten Tests in succession in India and England, the goggle-eyed enthusiast — the keenest England cricketer since Derek Randall — has taken his 32 wickets at an even average of 32, which is seven runs cheaper per wicket than Giles’s record after 52 Tests that have earned him 140 wickets. Potentially he is England’s best finger spinner since Derek Underwood, certainly since Phil Edmonds and John Emburey.

That there is any doubt about Panesar’s selection is, therefore, odd, despite the feeling that he may be flattered by his batting average of ten, although no one since Matthew Hoggard has worked harder to improve.

But Giles has too often been underestimated and it is not impossible that his injury might prove to have been a blessing in disguise. On the all too brief evidence of his bowling in Canberra and Sydney, he has lost none of his control but gained a little flight. Three of his four wickets in the three innings in which he bowled in those matches came when batsmen moved out to drive and did not get to the pitch of the ball.

There has been a perceptible shortening in Giles’s delivery stride, probably the result of wanting to put less strain on his hip, which may have helped him to add extra spin and therefore more dip to the ball’s downward flight. Loss of weight after all his gym work must also give the repaired hip a greater chance of standing the strain.

That said, however, Panesar is an unknown quantity to Australia’s main batsmen, still a bigger spinner of the ball and more likely to get good right-handers out from round the wicket. He has bowled too fast and flat so far, but his relish for the big stage has been obvious from his first Test in Nagpur in March.

He showed at Old Trafford against Pakistan in July, when he had his first five-wicket analysis for England and match figures of eight for 93, that his height, classical action and huge hands enable him to bounce the ball as well as turn it on the sort of pitch that awaits at the Gabba.

That might help Giles, too, and the 20 extra runs he might make on the same bouncy pitch against Brett Lee would be precious in a tight match, but Panesar would be the bolder pick.

2 days to go

The great Ashes-winning teams have players who hunt in pairs and whose names trip off the tongue: Lillee and Thomson, Botham and Willis, Larwood and Voce, Edrich and Compton, Trueman and Statham, Hayden and Langer. Can Flintoff and Pietersen join them?