ENGLAND’S hopes of this week ending a 75-year jinx in Ashes Tests at Lord’s look predictably slim. Although West Indies were beaten in three days in May on a pitch with pace and bounce, the expectation is that the surface for the second Test match starting on Thursday will be as true for batting as those that produced six draws and 22 centuries between 2006 and 2008.

Angus Fraser, Middlesex’s director of cricket, says county pitches at Lord’s this season have been typically true — both four-day matches ended in draws — and he expects it will take very good bowling, or a stick of dynamite, to get rid of good batsmen during the Test.

Lord’s pitches have acquired an unwelcome reputation for getting better as games go on. They are the kinds of surfaces that the International Cricket Council (ICC) had in its sights when it recently announced that Test pitches could be marked down as too batsman-friendly.

The ICC has also said it is considering introducing four-day Tests, on the basis that this would compel home boards obsessed with maximising revenue across five days to produce sportier surfaces.

England will certainly alter their attack, with a spinner — probably Monty Panesar — giving way to a seamer, most likely Graham Onions. Onions’s outswing brought him seven wickets against West Indies in his first Test, and the fact he has stayed with England in Cardiff indicates that he is close to their thoughts.

Steve Harmison, currently playing in a County Championship match in Leeds, may be added to the squad if Stuart Broad, reportedly struggling with a calf problem, is deemed less than 100% fit. If overhead conditions are right, the ball will swing at Lord’s, although this tends to be the case more often in May than July.

There are other curses in sport — Wales have not beaten the All Blacks for 56 years, South Africa have never won a Test match at The Oval — but none has quite the magnetism of Australia’s unbeaten run against England at the home of cricket dating back to 1934.

It is because Lord’s should feel like a foreign field to Australians that this 18-match unbeaten run is so remarkable. If anyone should be at ease on the ground, it is England players, who turn out there so often. The Australians visit for a Test only every four years and have a strangely sloping pitch to contend with.

Originally, many Australians were in awe of the place — Bill Woodfull, addressing the crowd in 1934, practically tugged his forelock when he said he was “privileged to speak to you as a fellow Briton” — but a supreme self-confidence has developed among the modern generation of Aussies that they can do no wrong here. And with good reason. They have sung their victory song after five of their six Tests since 1985 and won the World Cup final at Lord’s in 1999.

It may be a cause for English concern that none of this Australia team (Ricky Ponting included) have yet got their names on the prized honours board, which lists every century or five-wicket haul achieved in Lord’s Tests.

As they have shown in Cardiff, these Australians are a hungry group and will be eager to add their names at the first opportunity. Of those in action in the first Test, only Ponting, Simon Katich and Michael Clarke have played a Test at Lord’s before.

When it comes to the honours board, England’s appetite is largely sated. Playing twice a year at Lord’s has provided them with plenty of opportunities, and of this week’s likely XI, all but Broad and Graeme Swann have already recorded either hundreds or five-fors.

Australia’s recent successes at Lord’s owed a lot to Glenn McGrath, whose bowling methods were suited to him operating from the pavilion end and using the slope to draw batsmen into playing at off-stump balls they would have preferred to leave alone. Left-arm paceman Mitchell Johnson may use the slope in similar fashion to bring the ball back into the right- handers.

In the past 30 years, there have been few outstanding individual English performances against Australia at Lord’s, and times — such as 2005 — when it looked as though England felt the weight of history on their shoulders. Nor has the detachment of Lord’s crowds, heavily made up of corporate guests, helped England feel at home.

Shane Warne’s presence in the commentary box — his exit yesterday from a poker tournament in the United States should guarantee his appearance — may not improve their mood. All in all, they face a huge challenge.

ON TV THURSDAY

Second Ashes Test 10am Sky Sports 1; highlights 7.15pm Channel Five, 8pm Sky Sports 1

Lords of the manor

Australia have an impressive record against England at Lord’s in their 33 matches since the first Test in 1884.

Played 33 Australia won 14 Drawn 14 England won 5

England won three of the first four matches at the ground between the two countries and have only won in 1896 and 1934 since then.

MOST RECENT ASHES TESTS AT LORD’S

1968 Match drawn
1972 Australia won by eight wickets
1975 Match drawn
1977 Match drawn
1980 Match drawn
1981 Match drawn
1985 Australia won by four wickets
1989 Australia won by six wickets
1993 Australia won by an innings and 62 runs
1997 Match drawn
2001 Australia won by eight wickets
2005 Australia won by 239 runs