Whisper it, although not if you happen to find yourself in Preston today, but the injury to Andrew Flintoff is not necessarily bad news for England.

That is no longer the kind of heretical statement that would, once upon a time, have brought upon the perpetrator the Inquisition. There is now a general realisation that the talismanic all-rounder of four years ago is not as central to England's success as before.

Like a second-hand car with plenty of miles on the clock, Flintoff's body has become unreliable. You can give it as many MOTs as you like - and an MOT for Flintoff is another bout of rehabilitation with his physiotherapist and great friend, Dave Roberts - but it is a truism that when you set off on a long journey, you are just not quite sure whether you will reach the destination.

His latest setback is a recurrence of the injury to his right knee that he first suffered when plying his trade for Chennai Super Kings in the Indian Premier League. He had surgery for a tear in the meniscus at the beginning of the season and missed the opening internationals of the summer and the World Twenty20. This on the back of injuries in the recent past to his hip, which forced him to miss two Test matches in the Caribbean last winter, and his ankle and side, which shortened his summer last year.

It is not yet definite that Flintoff will miss the second npower Test match. He was sent for a precautionary scan yesterday, after complaining of soreness and swelling, but three days before the second Test, and in the wake of a physically demanding five days at Cardiff, where he bowled 35 overs, he must be extremely doubtful for Lord's. England will be wary of going into any Test with a bowler who is not fully fit, nor will they want to risk further injury to Flintoff with three Tests following in quick succession.

Where does this leave England? Not quite in the hole that some imagine. If Flintoff is not fit, there are two options: the likelier is that the selectors would rebalance the team, bringing in an extra batsman in the shape of the man-boy Ian Bell (who could bat at No6 or No3), recalling Stephen Harmison and leaving the final decision between Stuart Broad and Graham Onions, there being no place for Monty Panesar on a pitch that was looking green about the gills yesterday and damp to the touch.

Less likely is that they would continue to play five bowlers, Harmison as a straight swap for Flintoff, because that would leave England's batting looking too thin, with Graeme Swann at No7 and Broad at No8. If, in a four-pronged attack, it comes down to a straight shoot-out between Onions and Broad, there is a good argument for siding with the Durham man, although England will be reluctant to dispense with Broad after one poor match.

Harmison's was the only new name added to the squad for the second Test announced yesterday by the England selectors. Geoff Miller, the national selector, described him as a “like for like” replacement for Flintoff, which is fair enough, up to a point.

Both are fast and bouncy, but there is one difference: Harmison has a stack of wickets to his name this season. He has taken 33 in his past five first-class matches alone, at an average of 13.03, including that of Phillip Hughes, the Australia opener, twice. Flintoff took one for 128 at Cardiff and looked increasingly impotent after a magnificent spell to begin the afternoon session on the second day. Harmison for Flintoff, then, is a fair swap with the ball.

But what about Flintoff's status as an all-rounder, the runs he scores and the balance that he brings to the side? Flintoff played well in the second innings at Cardiff, responsibly and straight. He has looked in decent fettle since he butchered Derbyshire in a Twenty20 Cup match for Lancashire three weeks ago. He is a “form” player and an in-form Flintoff is an asset to England. But it would be difficult to argue, on the weight of pure runs, that Flintoff is a better batsman than Bell.

Harmison would probably have been picked in the squad anyway, with the selectors looking to add cutting edge to an attack that performed bluntly in the first Test, and, in the unlikely event that Flintoff is fit, there is a chance that both could play, reviving memories, perhaps, of the brutal start to the 2005 Ashes series at Lord's. Australia would, no doubt, remember that they played together throughout the 2006-07 whitewash, too.

So let us move on from the past and from the notion that Flintoff is a talisman for the England team - as the bare statistics suggest we must. Since 2005, England have played 48 Tests, winning 15, losing 16 and drawing 17. Flintoff has missed 25 of those because of injury. Without him, England have won 12 matches; in the 23 games that he has played, England have won three. Flintoff is a fine cricketer, who will and should play if fit, but his stamp is no longer - if it ever has been - a guarantee of success.

With or without you

England with Flintoff: Strauss, Cook, Bopara, Pietersen, Collingwood, Prior, Flintoff, Swann, Broad, Anderson, Onions.

England without Flintoff: Strauss, Cook, Bopara, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bell, Prior, Swann, Anderson, Onions, Harmison.

A catalogue of breaks, aches and missed dates

2000 Breaks left foot while bowling against South Africa in Cape Town. Out for three months. Leaves tour to Pakistan at end of year with sore back. Returns to Pakistan as specialist batsman after others fall ill. Has his nose broken in the nets.

2002 Has double hernia operation, misses Champions Trophy. Struggles to prove fitness for first Ashes Test in Brisbane. Flies home with groin injury.

2003 Suffers shoulder injury in the nets, misses series against Zimbabwe. Withdraws from Test tour to Bangladesh with groin strain.

2005 Leaves tour to South Africa to have surgery on his left ankle.

2006 Out for 12 weeks after more ankle surgery.

2007 Misses two Tests against West Indies, has operation on same ankle. Struggles in World Twenty20 and has fourth operation on left ankle.

2008 Misses series against New Zealand because of side strain.

2009 Back from tour to West Indies with hip tear. Returns for one-day series. Back home early from Indian Premier League to have surgery on a torn meniscus in his right knee. Complains of soreness in right knee after first Test against Australia.

Since his debut in 1998, Flintoff has missed 62 of England's 138 Tests.