Last year the Liverpool Victoria County Championship was decided on the penultimate day of the season; this time it may not be until the final day of the tournament on Saturday that one of the remaining contenders, Lancashire, Sussex and Durham, wins the first division of the renamed “LV”. The top three are separated by 8½ points, with a possible 22 to be gained from each game at the climax of a competition arguably as tough as Australia’s Pura Cup and certainly longer and more cosmopolitan.

Winning in the end is often like catching the wind. The team that unfurls the sail at the right moment is the one that sweeps to the winning line first and it is Lancashire who have the impetus, six points clear after two wins and a draw from three testing games since Sussex beat them in three days at Aigburth on the second day of August. But for Muttiah Muralitharan, Lancashire might not have been leading now, but the recent surge has been made possible by an all England-qualified bowling attack, none of them born south of Stoke-on-Trent, led by Glen Chapple and Sajid Mahmood.

On the other hand, their latest overseas recruit, V. V. S. Laxman, made a timely first hundred for the club against Warwickshire last week. Lancashire’s confidence is understandable, especially as Sussex, who have won one more game, go into their final match at home to Worcestershire looking less a ship in full sail than a cricketing version of the fighting Temeraire, shot above and below the waterline. Chris Adams, the captain, split a finger in the field on Sunday, needed five stitches and is in serious danger of missing the game. The fastest bowler and best batsman are unavailable, three other senior bowlers have been nursing sore knees and the vice-captain, Michael Yardy, has been ill with gastric flu.

Whatever team Sussex field today, victory is essential for them. They are only 2½ points in front of Durham, who have won two trophies this season and will be confident of repeating last week’s outstanding seam-bowling performance against Sussex by overcoming Kent, who have some weary and wounded players, at Canterbury.

Durham have more bowling points than anyone, but Lancashire can control their own destiny and the forecast unsettled weather in the South this week could enhance the value of their lead.

At the Brit Oval, a decent batting pitch is virtually guaranteed, so Mark Chilton’s team should earn sufficient bonus points to ensure that, if they beat Surrey there over the next four days, they will win their first outright title since 1934. Then, Len Hopwood became the first Lancashire all-rounder to do the double of 1,000 runs/100 wickets for 30 years and Sussex finished runners-up, for the third season in succession, after Lancashire had won their final game at the Oval.

Lancashire knew that they only had to draw against Surrey 73 years ago; this time they may need to win. Only recently assured of first-division status next year after an unexpectedly weak start to the season, Surrey, like Kent and Worcestershire, have only pride for which to play. Rory Hamilton-Brown may not be the last to leave them, but there are recent signs of more cohesion. Mark Ramprakash is seeking at least a ninth hundred of the season to take his first-class tally to 96. Surrey will not play their new signing, Usman Afzaal, until next year, but they may play Ian Salisbury, whose shoulder has recovered.

At Hove, Mark Robinson, who guided Sussex to their second championship last year in his first season as professional cricket manager, was delighted with his team’s commitment in adversity against Durham last week and still believes that they can win a third title in five seasons. “I’m not sure what the final XI will be, but I do know that we have the personnel to win the game,” he said.

Murray Goodwin, whose consistent, meticulous batting and relentless professionalism have been less obvious than Mushtaq Ahmed’s inspirational bowling, is in Australia for his mother-in-law’s funeral and will be replaced by Carl Hopkinson, the Sunday century-maker.

Mushtaq will play, despite a sore knee, but his “European Union-qualified” teammate, Saqlain Mushtaq, is more doubtful after straining a muscle behind his right knee in Durham. Ollie Rayner, Chris Liddle and Ragheb Gul Aga, 23, a Kenyan all-rounder who has impressed for Eastbourne, vie for Saqlain’s place, if needed, and certainly for that of the wholehearted Rana Naved-ul-Hasan, who may become Yorkshire’s overseas player next year if his dislocated shoulder recovers.

Race for the championship

The story so far

May 5 Sussex, the champions, have lost two of their first three matches by an innings. Warwickshire and Yorkshire have each won two of their first three.

1 Warwickshire P 3 Pts 55
2 Yorkshire P 3 Pts 52
3 Hampshire P 2 Pts 31

June 18 Sussex back in the race and they share a rain-affected draw with Yorkshire at Headingley. By the mid-season break for the Twenty20 Cup, Durham are the only other team to have won three matches.

1 Yorkshire P 7 Pts 99
2 Sussex P 8 Pts 94
3 Durham P 7 Pts 91.5

Aug 3 Lancashire fail to chase target of 242 to beat Sussex at Liverpool and fall 37 points behind leaders. Durham beat Warwickshire to stay in hunt.

1 Sussex P 11 Pts 142
2 Yorkshire P11 Pts 139
3 Durham P11 Pts 128.5

Sep 7 Sussex beat Yorkshire at Hove, all but ending Yorkshire’s hopes. Lancashire sneak past Durham in a tense, low-scoring game at Blackpool.

1Sussex P 14 Pts 175
2 Yorkshire P 15 Pts 170
3 Hampshire P 14 Pts 166
4 Lancashire P 14 Pts 166

Sep 13 Durham beat Sussex to get back in reckoning. Lancashire trounce Warwickshire to go top for first time.

1 Lancashire P 15 Pts 186
2 Sussex P 15 Pts 180
3 Durham P 15 Pts 177.5

What they need

- Lancashire 17 points against Surrey will secure them title.
- Sussex Need to score six points more than Lancashire, so will hope to beat Worcestershire with full bonus points. If Lancashire lose, a high-scoring draw may be enough.
- Durham Can win title if they beat Kent and other two fail to win, depending on bonus points.
- Yorkshire and Hampshire need all three teams above them to slip up to stand chance.
- If teams finish level on points, the tie-breakers are as follows: most wins, fewest losses, most points in matches between the teams.
- How the points are scored: 14 points for a win; four points for a draw. Bonus points (scored in first 130 overs of first innings): Batting (five maximum): one point each for reaching for 200, 250, 300, 350 and 400 runs; bowling (three maximum) for three, six and nine wickets.