Joe Lovejoy
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“Five times, we won it five times. In Istanbul we won it five times.”
The Kop choir will have to change the words of their favourite hymn of praise on Wednesday if Liverpool overcome Milan in a reprise of the 2005 European Cup final. “In Athens we won it six times” doesn’t scan quite as nicely. “By the Acropolis”, perhaps? Such trivial concerns presuppose that Liverpool are going to win again, which is some presumption, given the style with which Kaka and company saw off Manchester United in their semi-final, but there is a decent case to be made for such an outcome. Milan are favourites with the bookmakers, with Ladbrokes offering 6-4 on, but although they do parade an impressive Who’s Who of European football, Maldini, Nesta and Seedorf are well into the autumn of their careers in a young man’s game. Youth is a significant weapon in the underdogs’ armoury - all the more so in the temperatures expected in Athens.
Reasons for Liverpool supporters - and for the rest of us wishing England’s representatives well – to be cheerful do not end there. Apart from younger, more energetic legs, Steven Gerrard and his team take into the fray that terrific, indefatigable spirit that served them so well against the same opponents two years ago. In the most dramatic final of modern times, they clambered out of the grave at 3-0 down to emerge triumphant. Milan remember it bitterly. Seven of the players who had their hearts broken on that never-to-be-forgotten night in the Ataturk stadium will be on duty this time, and midfielder Gennaro Gattuso has articulated their desire to avenge the worst experience of some long and very distinguished careers.
The bookies rarely get it wrong, but careful analysis of Milan’s season provides more grounds for Scouse optimism than may be superficially apparent. The Rossoneri are fortunate even to be in the competition after last year’s match-fixing scandal in Italy that initially had them deducted so many points that they failed to finish high enough to qualify. Only on appeal, when the punishment was reduced to eight points, did they get in, and then it was at the preliminary stage.
They decided almost from day one that their handicap in Serie A precluded a realistic chance of winning the scudetto, so they concentrated on Europe. That explains a league table going into the weekend that has them an embarrassing 32 points behind the champions, Internazionale, who clinched the title on April 22 with five games to spare.
Focusing on the Champions League did not ensure smooth progress, however. Milan were beaten by AEK Athens (1-0) and Lille (2-0) in their group before making hard work of eliminating Celtic at the first knockout stage, when Liverpool, in contrast, were accounting for Barcelona. The problems Milan encountered with the obdurate Scottish champions, who held them 0-0 in Glasgow and conceded only once in the San Siro, augur well for Liverpool. Celtic, ruggedly competitive, threatened to cause an upset with a destructive game, and Rafael Benitez’s team is better equipped to disrupt the slick passing of Andrea Pirlo and Clarence Seedorf and to strike powerfully on the break.
Milan were scarcely irresistible in the quarter-finals. They drew 2-2 at home to Bayern Munich before finally playing up to their stellar reputations and winning 2-0 in Bavaria. Liverpool, meanwhile, were steamrollering PSV Eindhoven. The Italians’ status as favourites is largely down to the quality of their performance against United in the semis, but mitigating factors need to be borne in mind when assessing its true merit. Foremost among these must be the injuries that fatally weakened the United defence. In the first leg at Old Trafford, Kaka scored two fine goals, but the Reds’ rearguard, shorn of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic, parted more like the Red Sea. The formidable partnership of Jamie Carragher and Daniel Agger are unlikely to be so obliging. In the return, Vidic was back but nowhere near match-fit and he was the only one of Sir Alex Ferguson’s first-choice back four to play.
Similarly, it was key that when they were beaten 3-0 in the San Siro, not only were United missing important individuals, but those who did play were fatigued by playing their fifth match in 16 days. Critically, on the Saturday before the decisive return in Italy, they needed to come from behind and win at Everton to secure their lead in the Premiership. Milan, in dressing-room parlance, were different class, but they were not playing the United that thrashed Roma 7-1. Liverpool can take heart from that fact, as well as from their own notable success in the semis against Chelsea when Pepe Reina emulated Jerzy Dudek’s shootout heroics in Istanbul two years ago.
Benitez, a Spaniard whose brain is more attuned to Europe than to the Premiership, believes Milan have their weaknesses, especially at the back, where the Brazilian goalkeeper, Dida, is fallible under crosses, as demonstrated by Cristiano Ronaldo’s headed goal at Old Trafford. Massimo Oddo and Marek Jankulovski are vulnerable at full-back and the veteran centre-halves, Paolo Maldini and Alessandro Nesta, are showing their age. The Milanese strength lies in midfield, with Gattuso and Massimo Ambrosini ferreting relentlessly for possession in the knowledge that Pirlo, Seedorf and Kaka can use it to devastating effect.
It will be interesting to see if Benitez chooses to mirror Carlo Ancelotti’s 4-4-1-1 formation or plumps for good old-fashioned 4-4-2. The temptation must be to use Gerrard “in the hole” behind Dirk Kuyt – the position in which he transformed the game in Istanbul – but sources close to the Liverpool manager suggest that he is more likely to deploy his inspirational captain on the right side of midfield.
Those same sources have it that Liverpool will not man-mark Kaka but will leave it to Javier Mascherano, Xabi Alonso or Gerrard to pick him up on an as-and-when basis. Second-guessing Benitez is a fraught business, but if it is to be 4-4-2, the only areas of selectorial doubt would appear to be left midfield and second striker. On the left, Bolo Zenden (fitness permitting) will probably get the nod, ahead of the ephemeral Harry Kewell, and up front the choice is between Peter Crouch and Craig Bellamy to partner Kuyt. The Welshman’s pace would worry those suspect full-backs and ageing central defenders, as will Kuyt’s waspish persistence, but the grapevine indicates a preference for Crouch.
Good enough? Maybe. Milan’s one orthodox striker, Alberto Gilardino, has the look of meat and drink for Carragher, and if the lines of supply to Kaka from the pass-master, Pirlo, can be disconnected by Mascherano and Alonso, a second tour de force in three seasons is not beyond Liverpool. You can get 9-1 against them winning 2-1. For what it’s worth - a measly tenner - I’m on.
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As a milan fan of 15 years and following them home and away ,season in season out (yes i actually do go unlike some of the liverpool fans who harp on about 2005 and never get any futher than watford gap services)i cant see liverpool holding out to win this,they are a good cup side and thats it! For a team to finsh well behind the best two teams in england and only just squeeze through against chelski and say they have had a great season i find somewhat amazing.
Liverpool domestically have not even come near challenging for title honours and cant see them doing so for the foreseable future
And as for istanbul ten minutes of luck is all that won it for liverpool outclassed ,outplayed for 110 minutes(and dudek was off his line for most of the penalties)I can honstley say that in athens the best footballing side in europe at the moment will prevail and make it 7 times
forza milan
jonathan gutteridge, walsall, west mids
I don't think Liverpool runs a chance. The referee on the pitch is Fandel. He is a jerk that won't let the game go on. It'll be a one-man show, Fandel's.
Observer, Montreal, Canada
The Liverpool team of the 70's and 80's played great football. They always tried to play that way and they had great sucess that way. Luck always plays a part, and Liverpool probably used up their lifetime award in Athens!
The present team is built on denial and defence, and that can work to a degree in Europe, but overall that's why they have been some combined 50+ points of the EPL champs in the last 3 years.
They are, I reiterate a good cup side. Given the resources, the sucess they have had in Europe shows the technical mind of Benitez works well in this arena, but as in many cup games the best side doesn't always win.
Chelsea and Barcelona both beat them 1-0 and I expect something similar on Wednesday.
If they go out to win and are the best side over the 90/120 minutes I'll be the first to say so.
But, myself and fellow neutrals doubt it...
D. Gray, Bournemouth,
Lets hope for entertaining football in Athens. Liverpool are more tactical and Milan are more enterprising. Remember the final in Athens in 1994? Milan 4-0 Barcelona. What a match. Lets hope for a repeat performance for entertainment
sanjay shah, epping, essex
I am amazed at all the nonsense being spouted out how "bad" Liverpool are from "footballing experts." Instead of sheepishly repeating comments you overheard in the pub after getting knocked out in the semis, come up with some facts.
Comparing any side, let alone the current team, to the great sides of 70's and 80's is absurd. In such a test, anyone of todays teams from any league would come off looking like a pre-Abramovich Chelsea.
With regards to the luckiest team to win the Champions League rubbish, Cafu said "Luck is something you earn in football, and Liverpool earned their win. They showed an incredible strength to come back that night." Enough said, case closed. Instead of crying like babies, see it for what it was... one of the greatest comebacks in sporting history.
There is no doubt Milan are a class act and as the old saying goes, form is temporary but class is permanent. Milan have players that can tear any defence apart. However I am quietly confident we will win
Sohail, New York, USA
I remember reading the comments af ew weeks ago about whether Chelsea were too good for Liverpool. The fact is in Europe , under Benitez , no team is. With limited resources he has done an awesome job. I had to smile at Peter Kenyon today on Five Live saying they had not done badly with two cups this year. Mouinho puts talks about six trophies, yes but expensive at £100m a trophy!! The fact is Liverpool have the commitment to win, based on self belief and passion. They have proved over decades consistently. It runs through the club. We are much stronger than two years ago and Milan beat a Man U side with a badly weakened defence. It will be sixth European Championship for us and just wait next year in the Premiership when we have a bit more cash to spend on strenthening the squad.
John, Airdrie, UK
Bitter person...Don't make me laugh. I'm a neutral who loved the Liverpool team of the 70's and 80's. This is a side of pretenders. A 80's Wimbledon in red shirts.
Milan hammered Liverpool for 110 minutes. Penalties were the only chance Liverpool had. They were totally outclassed with the exception of 10 minutes. If you think that's justice your blind. The better team, by a mile, lost.
If It was the other way round I'd say the same thing.
Here's hoping the best team win on the night. I can tell you now that the best team probably won't be Liverpool again...
D. Gray, Bournemouth,
Beat them once beat them twice. Liverpool have got the legs and need to pressurize Milan. The crowd will be the twelfth man again. I can only see a win for the all reds. All the top Italian sides have been beaten by them and hate playing Liverpool the most.
trevor davies, Northwich, Cheshire
Milan are superior to Liverpool in most ways. Can only see Milan winning this final. Liverpool were lucky last time they met, think they´re luck is about to run out.
Hopefully Liverpool´s lose will help Gerrard see the light and join a team like Milan which has class players like himself all over the pitch.
Forza Milan, show Liverpool how to play the beautiful game and not the dull, boring stuff Liverpool are so good at playing under thier current manager.
Dan, London, UK
D Gray....what a bitter person you are.
Why was Liverpool's win 2 years ago an injustice ?
Does a team who can't hold onto a 3 goal lead deserve to win ?
Does a team with a striker who misses from 2 yards deserve to win ?
Already this season Liverpool have outplayed Barcelona, so why should they fear AC Milan ?
I don't think you know what you are talking about !
andrew, bolton, england
Oh, you blind red followers....
I'm a neutral. Not blinded by loyalty. You are a good cup side. That's it. You've won on away goals and penalties to get there, but credit to you for beating teams that are much better than you.
In one game you'll lose. Milan are the better side and have something to prove. Liverpool will try to kill the game, but Milan's midfield will be the telling point and I still think they'll win by the odd goal.
As a neutral, I used to love the old Liverpool and the way they played football. Remember when you used to make fun of Wimbledon?
Well, Liverpool are the Wimbledon of Europe now.
D. Gray, Bournemouth,
Thanks Joe Lovejoy for giving us such a well balanced preview of the forthcoming game. I have already read this account in the print version of the Sunday Times and couldn't get online quick enough. What a load of cobblers! This demonstrates once again how totally out of touch the average London based football journalist is when asked to comment on anything outside of the over hyped, overrated and over exposed English Premier League. You really ought to get out more, after all flights to Italy and Spain are available for peanuts during the football season.
Graham McGregor, Malaga, Spain
Though I can see why Milan are favourites, one way of assessing their superiority (or not) is to ask which players would be automatic choices for the other team. I would suggest that only Pirlo, Kaka and Gattuso would be 100% sure of getting into the Liverpool line up. Though undoubtedly high quality, how invincible can a team featuring Dida, Oddo, Inzaghi and Gilardino be?
D.Gray, I can't really see how two years ago can be called an 'injustice'. Milan were the better team but lost because Liverpool scored 3 goals, not because they were cheated by the referee or booted off the pitch.
Mark Webster, London, England
Injustice? What injustice? Milan harp on about revenge but I can't understand why? It's not like they were hard done by in terms of dodgy decisions. They were 3 - 0 up and let the game slip so only have themselves to blame.
No expected Liverpool to win in 2005 and if you looked at the team then this thought was spot on. However, with the backing of the man upstairs and the number one supporters in the world ''WE WON IT FIVE TIME''.
On Wednesday night, you will see a Liverpool team that is much better and more equipped from 2 years ago. Kaka won't have it his own way this time and Milan will definitely show us more respect.
Peter, London,
I'm a Liverpool fan. Whilst I think Milan have been overhyped because of the way Man Utd were ripped apart in the semis - or because the way Man Utd let Kaka rip them apart - I still find it difficult to see how LIverpool can win over 90 or 120 minutes.
The reason being we have an awesome keeper in Reina, possibly the best back four in Europe and a solid, efficient midfield. But we lack a cutting edge; obvious ways of scoring. Sure, Milan will also have limited opportunities but if Kuyt/Crouch/Bellamy gets a chance I'm not as confident in them putting it away as Kaka, Seedorf or even Gillardinio/Inzaghi.
And our most dangerous threat - Gerrard, seems more likely to be placed on RM again.
This could well go to penalties. On that note possibly have a 'penalty saving expert' but thats what Dida was billed as two years ago too.
Dont get me wrong I want us to come back home with number 6 just as much as any other fan, I'm just not sure where our goals will come from.
Abdul, Birmingham, UK
D Gray, it shows you are green with envy! Liverpool were not out classed by Barcelona we beat them away 2-1. were not out classed by chelsea but relly the opposit we beat them during the home game and at taking and saving penalties. We deff were not out classed at anfield vs manure. we out played them for 89 mins and lost by a lucky goel by o'shea. do you remember if not watch these game again. And Milan need to start bracing themselves if Benitez gets it tactically right, because like manure and chelski they will not be able to play. Kaka ask a better player then you Ronladhinio if he even pass half pitch or had a decent shot at goal. In athens we'll win it six times!
Red Dawn, Liverpool, UK
people harp on about milan but who can say they will definitely win?. like in our daily lives, NOBODY can predict what will happen. football is a 2 way situation: you either win or you loose. just look at west ham, they beat united at old trafford when no one gave them a chance. anything can happen in football!!!! just because milan have better players doesn't guarantee success for them as liverpool proved two years ago. the simple fact is liverpool won it 2 years ago, beat BARCELONA and chelsea this year so why cant they beat milan again? they can equally loose to milan but better teams have lost before. people should congratulate liverpool for the simple fact that they are in another final despite all the other big names they are competing with. it's just like newcastle with their current squad challenging for the premiership. i don't even support liverpool you know!!
Abu, crewe,
Liverpool are the luckiest winners of the CL in the last 15 years. Closely followed by Man Utd. Two teamsd outplayed, and in the Liverpool case outclasses totally.
Milan will control possesion, and the middle of the park, like they did for 110 minutes last time and will win a close game comfortably.
Commentators here continually fail to acknowledge that when you have the ball the other team can't score. The flow will be towards the Liverpool goal for the majority of the evening and there will nothing Gerrard and co can do against technically better opponents.
As usual Liverpool's best hope will be penalties. This side is a shadow of the great footballing side of the 70's and 80's.
I'm betting the injustice of 2 years ago will be corrected in Athens.
D. Gray, Bournemouth,