All-time league table in full
WHO IS THE BEST? I MEAN REALLY THE best? You could argue about it for hours.
I’m sure you will. But if you do, then for heaven’s sake make sure you are
arguing about the right thing.
For here is what you need to know about the history of football when you are
trying to identify the best club ever — nothing. In fact, knowing nothing is
not only satisfactory, it is optimal. Let me explain why.
The other day someone was challenging one of my counter-intuitive notions
about football and argued that Alan Hansen would completely disagree with
me. “Are you saying that Alan Hansen doesn’t know anything about football?”
he said, a trifle aggressively. And I thought for a while and replied: “Alan
Hansen is brilliant. He knows a great deal about the game. And that’s his
problem. Because he thinks that everything he knows, matters. And quite
often it doesn’t.”
Experts believe in the significance of their expertise. They therefore ascribe
to the things that they have noticed on the pitch a far greater importance
in producing the final result than it may in fact possess. Thus, if you ask
an expert to tell you the best team ever, all you will get back is a list of
those teams who conform to the expert’s view of how the game is played.
An ignoramus will do better. Because they do not know anything about clubs
they will be left with only one option — build the best objective method for
calculating the answer. And that is what Fink Tank has done.
If you want to argue, you should argue about our methods. So I suppose I had
better tell you what we did.
Dr Henry Stott and Dr Ian Graham worked on two tables. The first was to
establish the best club ever, the second the strongest side in history. The
first step was to input into our computer model the results of every league
game in the top two divisions between the beginning of the 1888-89 season
and the end of last season. About 80,000 matches.
League games were chosen because they provide a more reliable measure of
strength than cup matches. The latter have too many quirky draws and results
to be a reliable guide to team or club strength. It is the lengthy grind of
the league that gives it its measuring power.
The club league table was relatively simple to produce. Every team that had
played a game in the top flight were given three points for a win and one
for a draw. This produces a discussion point. The awarding of three points
for a win allows comparison over the time period, but in the era of two
points for a win, going for the draw may have been a more sensible thing to
do than it is now. Is it right to change the points awarded retrospectively?
To get a league table involving all the clubs that have played in the top
flight, we then divided the points total by the number of games played to
get a points-per-game ranking. Yet is this fair? Shouldn’t Arsenal’s
longevity in the top division be rewarded? But if it is, how can the teams
be properly compared? Liverpool pick up the Fink Tank All-Time league
trophy. But perhaps the most interesting aspect of the table is the high
place accorded to less fashionable clubs such as Huddersfield Town (above
Chelsea) and Burnley, a reminder of what great clubs they have been.
Now. What about the best side (the best individual team rather than
club) ever? Much more complicated, but it is still possible to make a stab
at it.
During the past four league seasons, the Fink Tank has provided readers with
the probabilities of wins, losses and draws in every match. It has done this
by using a model that takes account of goals scored and conceded and then
weights them (so that, for instance, more recent goals count for more and
home advantage is added in). The model also gives us a ranking of defences,
attacks and overall strength. If one team rank above another, that means
that if they met on a neutral ground, the higher-ranking team would be more
likely to win.
For this “best side ever” work, we simply added in every goal scored and
conceded since 1889. Then we could assess how good teams were against their
contemporaries. But because the data is continuous, with the weighting
rolling on season by season, we could take some sort of view on the best
teams ever.
Our ranking of the best attacks and defences has one clear drawback — the
strength of West Bromwich Albion’s attack in 1920 was clearly partly caused
by very bad defences in the same year. Nevertheless, the West Bromwich side
that season were markedly superior even taking that into account.
Once attacks and defences are considered together, this disadvantage is
eliminated. Comparability is not perfect. What we have discovered is really
a ranking of how much better teams were than their contemporaries, with
Arsenal’s 1990-91 team having a greater degree of superiority over their
rivals than any other historical side.
But I would argue that this is as good a measure of superiority as we are
going to get, that this makes them the best side ever. Do you agree?
All-time league table in full
Continued on page 2 ()
All-time league table in full
UP THE REDS
Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal are among England’s leading quartet
at present and they stand well clear of the rest in the all-time table for
the top flight. Assuming three points for a win since league football’s
launch in 1888, third-placed Arsenal have recorded an average of 1.59 points
per game in the top division, compared with the 1.48 of fourth-placed Leeds
United.
WINNING BY A WHISKER
Liverpool are top, but only by three thousandths of a point per game ahead of
Manchester United. If, say, Liverpool finish with 75 points this season
while United gain 84, then United would move into the lead.
MERSEY FEATS
Liverpool have the most points (assuming three for a win), but they only
passed Everton’s total last season. They lead them by 26 points having
trailed them by six a year ago.
REGIONAL ACCENT
Of the 62 teams who have played in the top flight, 15 are from the North West,
the most represented region: Liverpool, Manchester United, Everton, Burnley,
Preston North End, Blackburn Rovers, Manchester City, Wigan Athletic, Bolton
Wanderers, Blackpool, Bury, Oldham Athletic, Accrington, Darwen and Glossop
North End.
TOFFEES STICK TO TOP
Everton have played more top-flight games than any other team. They were
founder members of the league in 1888 and have only left the top flight in
1930-31 and 1951-54, when they were in the second tier.
LATE STARTERS
Leeds United are fourth in the all-time table but they did not finish in the
top four in any of their first 18 seasons in the top division. However they
were among the top four in each of their subsequent ten campaigns, from 1964
to 1974, under Don Revie’s management.
GOAL TRAFFORD
Of the top seven clubs in the table, Manchester United have scored the most
goals per game – 1.699. That is about two and a half goals per season more
than Liverpool (1.638 per game) and about eight more than Leeds (1.4925).
Arsenal (1.630) are well ahead of Tottenham (1.561)
A LONG WAY, JOSE
Liverpool fans claim Chelsea have “no history” and this table underlines their
point. Jose Mourinho’s team have achieved phenomenal points totals over the
past two season (95 and 91) but they would have to continue at the same rate
for 23 years to overhaul Liverpool’s present average points per game.
BEAT THY NEIGHBOUR
Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal are well clear of their nearest
neighbours (Everton, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur). The following
enjoy more narrow advantages: Burnley over Blackburn Rovers, Newcastle
United over Sunderland, Portsmouth over Southampton, Cardiff City over
Swansea City, Watford over Luton Town and Sheffield Wednesday over Sheffield
United.
DRAWING LEVEL
At some stage this season Chelsea and Manchester City could have an all-time
goal difference of 0 in the top flight. At present Chelsea’s is minus 23,
with City’s at plus six.
WOMBLING HIGH
Wimbledon’s 14-year stay in the top flight came despite long odds but they
were not just hanging on. They recorded more wins than defeats in their
first 13 seasons after promotion before they dropped out in the next
campaign, 1999-2000.
ALL-TIME LOW
Leyton Orient are bottom of the table having managed just six wins during
their only season in the top flight. The famous freeze of early 1963 created
a backlog of fixtures, and they finished their campaign with indecent haste
and a flurry of defeats.
WHO ARE THEY (1)?
Formed in 1907 and entered into the Football League a year later,
Bradford Park Avenue were promoted to the top flight in 1914. They spent
three seasons there, alongside Bradford City, but never returned, and were
voted out of the league in 1970.
WHO ARE THEY (2)?
Founded in 1875, Darwen joined the league in 1891, but their two
seasons of top-flight football, 1891-92 and 1893-94, ended in relegation.
They left the league in 1899 and have never returned.
WHO ARE THEY (3)?
Glossop North End were formed in 1886 and entered the Football League
12 years later, immediately gaining promotion to the top division. But they
lasted there only one season, dropped out of the league altogether in 1915
and have yet to return.
All-time league table in full
