You don’t have to know a lot about football to predict how this tie will play out. Tight and tense, decided by an individual moment of genius, a brilliant substitution, a mistake, perhaps a refereeing decision. Or maybe penalties again.

I can only see a re-run of last year: a high-tempo game between well-matched sides with personal duels all over the park, plenty of free kicks — everything apart from a feast of goals. Unlike the previous semi-finals between the clubs, the second leg is at Stamford Bridge, which adds intrigue and will give Chelsea a boost. Then again, in a tactical battle you’d back Rafael Benítez over Avram Grant.

They could play the first leg in Stanley Park and it wouldn’t really matter. Chelsea won’t be intimidated by the atmosphere and the teams are so familiar with each other that they are likely to cancel each other out.

You can argue the case for either side to win through. I wouldn’t care to wager on the outcome — it’s too hard to call. It’ll probably hang in the balance right to the last few minutes. Yes, Chelsea are higher up in the Barclays Premier League, but they’ve been no more convincing than Liverpool despite amassing more points and we all know how effective Benítez’s side is over 180 minutes.

The teams should be fresh, with Chelsea not playing over the weekend and Benítez resting his frontline troops against Fulham. Questions over Didier Drogba’s fitness have cast a cloud over Chelsea’s preparations, but on the night Joe Cole could be the key man for Grant’s side. He provides some much-needed imagination and can win a game in a moment. However, if he’s off his game, Chelsea can look clueless.

The only huge decision for Liverpool will be who to play in attack. Since he’s naturally cautious, I’d expect Benítez to go with Fernando Torres up front on his own with Steven Gerrard floating behind. I’m not convinced it’s the right move against a top-quality defence. Liverpool will need to pile bodies in the box because otherwise Ricardo Carvalho and John Terry will gobble up everything in the air and Petr Cech is not shy to come off his line.

I’d like to see Peter Crouch in there with Torres to give Chelsea’s centre backs more to worry about. He played very well when Liverpool beat Chelsea 2-0 in the league in January 2007.