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The Chancellor routinely holds up the British economy as an example to his EU counterparts and lectures them on the need to follow his example, but he will have to defend his record when ministers meet in Brussels on February 14.
Yesterday, Joaquín Almunia, the Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, challenged the Treasury’s forecasts that the deficit would fall below the 3 per cent threshold this year and next. “The Commission considers that the deficit is likely to remain above the 3 per cent reference value in 2005-06 and 2006-07, in spite of the recently announced fiscal measures,” he said.
The commissioner is asking finance ministers to insist that Mr Brown remedy the situation within 12 months.
The Treasury rejected the criticism and insisted that its forecasts were in line with a “prudent interpretation” of EU rules.
It said: “The UK continues to have the lowest average debts and deficits of any other major European economy and, as the Government set out in the Pre-Budget Report last month, we continue to meet our fiscal rules over the cycle with the public finances sustainable and increases in public investment fully affordable.”
In contrast with the Commission’s forecasts, the Treasury predicts that the deficit will fall to 3 per cent this financial year, to 2.7 per cent next year and as low as 1.5 per cent by 2010-11.
Unlike those countries that have adopted the euro, the EU cannot fine Britain if it does not bring its deficit below 3 per cent. Under EU rules, Britain is obliged only “to endeavour to avoid excessive deficits”.
Señor Almunia said, however, he was confident that the Chancellor would take corrective action.
The opposition was quick to pounce on the criticism. Timothy Kirkhope, the leader of British Conservative MEPs, said: “He [Mr Brown] is lining us up for a hard knock if growth begins to slow.”
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