What I am about to say is hard to take, but what can I do? Here goes. Seeking an explanation about why something happens can militate against understanding why it happens. And I think this is true about Arsenal’s season.

Yes, careful study often yields truth. Where would the Fink Tank be without it? But casual punditry? The record is not too encouraging.

We are all prone to a cognitive bias known as the clustering illusion, in which we see patterns where none exists. Punditry can fall foul of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. The name comes from a story about a Texan who fires several shots at the side of a barn, then paints a target centered on the hits and claims to be a sharpshooter.

What has all this got to do with Arsenal? At the beginning of the season, they did particularly poorly. When the Fink Tank’s Dr Ian Graham and Dr Henry Stott examined the team’s performance, they concluded that Arsenal were having poor luck and would recover. They promptly did so, enjoying a good October. And what happened next? They fell away again in November.

So what has been going on? Answer — nothing really.

You see, football is a low-scoring game and thus highly unpredictable. If you assemble a list of 20 teams in order of their ability, as measured by results and shots on goal, and then let them all play each other twice, you can be certain of only one thing — they will not finish in order of merit. There is too much luck involved and the season is not long enough to iron it all out.

Now let us take this one stage farther. If you stop the season in, say, January and look at the table, the problem will be worse. Teams will have their good and bad luck in a different order, with some starting well, others finishing well.

Returning to Arsenal, you can see this clearly. We ranked them third at the beginning of the season and expected them to finish third. We still rank them third and still expect them to finish third. Look at the graphic comparing actual points with the points we expected them to get. They have had bad periods and good periods, heading away from and back to their expected points level.

Nothing has happened except the data fluctuation you would expect. In fact, their underlying data has been remarkably consistent. Shots on target have hardly changed and total shots are at a three-year high. The one warning sign is that they seem to be allowing teams more shots on target and relying on the brilliant Jens Lehmann in goal to keep them out.

There has been a change in terms of the players helping Arsenal to win. Lehmann remains their best asset, but whereas Thierry Henry and Sol Campbell were wonderful last season, this season it is Gilberto Silva and Alexander Hleb who lead the pack. Johan Djourou and Francesc Fàbregas have also been magnificent. On the other hand, we are not convinced by Emmanuel Adebayor (who is an average player), or Tomas Rosicky, who actually loses points compared with an average player.

Anyway, do not write off Arsenal. There is a 17 per cent chance they will finish second. And a 1 per cent chance they will be champions.

finktank@thetimes.co.uk