The other day I heard a bloke on the radio getting very excited about the discovery of a new sort of leopard. I couldn’t share his enthusiasm, but I knew how he felt.

He felt like I did when Ole Gunnar Solksjaer scored the winner at the Nou Camp and Manchester United won the treble in 1999. I don’t really like United, but then again I don’t suppose that leopard spotter would have liked to have sat down to dinner with his new find. No, what got us both so worked up was the rarity of what has been discovered. A new species of cat! The treble!

Fans talk about the treble and even the quadruple as if these were events with a reasonable likelihood, but they are extraordinarily unlikely.

This season, Chelsea players are still talking about the quadruple. How likely is that? Even though they have won the Carling Cup, are in the quarter-finals of the Champions League and FA Cup and are favourites for both, their chances of a clean sweep is only 0.36 per cent.

The reason for this is simple. Manchester United are overwhelming favourites to win the Barclays Premiership (they have a 95 per cent chance). Yes, there are circumstances in which Chelsea could triumph — they beat United, United lose once more and then draw while Chelsea keep winning — but while each one of the necessary events is possible, it is unlikely that they will all happen together.

The quadruple, of course, is out of United’s reach. But what about another treble? This is still pretty unlikely, but the figures show that it is worth talking about. In fact, it is — at 10 per cent — twice as likely as Chelsea winning the Premiership.

Dr Henry Stott and Dr Ian Graham have run the probabilities for remaining matches through the Fink Tank computer. The ability to run many thousands of simulations very rapidly allows us to see how likely different outcomes are in the remaining competitions.

United have had a big slice of luck in the knockout competitions. The elimination of some of the best teams has increased their chances in the Champions League, while the FA Cup draw gives them a 42 per cent chance of glory and with it a 40 per cent chance of the domestic Double.

The model also allows us to check on the players responsible for United’s excellent season. By valuing every move made on the pitch and simulating the season over and over again, it is possible to see how many points each player adds compared with the average Premiership player in that position.

Who has been United’s most important player? Not Cristiano Ronaldo (third), not Wayne Rooney (seventh), not Louis Saha (fourth) and certainly not Gary Neville (bottom and loses points compared with the average). The answer is Nemanja Vidic, with Rio Ferdinand as runner-up. Go figure.

finktank@thetimes.co.uk