Daniel Finkelstein: Fink Tank
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Lampard above Gerrard? McCarthy above Drogba? Hleb in the top ten? You’re having a laugh.
No, we aren’t. First, these rankings are based on the contributions made this season. They aren’t a basic measure of talent. I’ve lost count of the number of people who say that Lampard isn’t all that good, despite, er, all those goals. And yes, he does well with lots of passing, say his critics, but that’s because Chelsea base their team around him. I see, so one of the best teams in Europe is based on him, yet he is overrated, is he? Second, inevitably what a player does on the pitch depends on his team-mates. He may be a dominant player or be sharing the work.
Many critics of our list cite their own eyeballing as evidence against us. How many games did you actually see? And how much of it did you spend concentrating on a particular player? If you watched Drogba in every game, how could you have watched McCarthy as carefully? You also brought to the table all your prejudices – overestimating some actions, underestimating others. Statistics bring biases, but our method is much better than eyeballing. We use every game and every move and we relate them to points objectively.
And in any case, opinions differ. One Arsenal fan wrote to me in disgust – Hleb is hopeless. Another texted me “Hleb is a genius”. Some of these subjective views surprise me. Tottenham Hotspur fans are quick to defend Paul Robinson, who was ranked 402nd out of 403. I’d put it like this – has it occurred to you to wonder why a team with one of the best attacks in Europe came fifth in the Barclays Premiership?
Finally, all stats have limitations. The model doesn’t deal quite as well with players who are categorised as defenders but play part of the season in midfield. So it’s not perfect. But we think it’s an exciting step forward.

What fans thought of the results
Love this. On total rankings (adding all a team’s players together) Arsenal
have the lowest score (low = better)! I knew we should have won the league
this year! Also, I used the percentage total playing time to see whether
Chelsea had real injury problems – yes, but not as bad as the Gunners. Only
six Arsenal players played over 60 per cent of the time compared to eight
for Chelsea. So, Arsenal – no arguments the hardest hit by injury and the
best ranked players. I demand Man Utd give us the trophy!
Jay Jay, Oxford
Not sure this has worked. Nice idea though. Looks like another attempt at using a mathematic equation on something subjective has failed.
The most shining example is Tévez. Would his replacement by an “average”
player only have lost the Hammers three points? That would be some average
player!
Rob, Hobart, Tasmania
Interesting to see no Liverpool players at all in the top 17. Seen in a
positive light, does this mean that they worked together more as a team,
with less reliance on individual players? I’ll drink to that!
Elias, Helsinki, Finland
Finally, some credibility for Lampard. At least a computer can recognise that
he is still one of the best players in the world.
Seth, Lincoln, US
Football is an art not a science.
Gareth, Liverpool
It’s always nice to have faith in your multivariate Poisson lognormal model,
even though the results would appear to be complete jibberish!
Paul, Huntingdonshire
Seems like most of those dissing this don’t seem to get it. It’s a ranking of
which players contributed most to their team’s results last season. That’s
all. Still – even if this is accurate it is pointless because a player’s
rank on this criteria is no indicator of whether they would be as effective
in another team. Eg, if you took England performances into account I doubt
Lampard would be ahead of Gerrard. So you couldn’t rely on it as a measure
of a player’s empirical “quality”.
Adam, London
I’m a professional football statistician and I like to see indexes like this
one as they are entertaining, but this one, like the old Opta Index and the
Actim Index, cannot be taken as ever being 100 per cent correct. Football is
and always will be a team game. There are many factors that are unaccounted
for in all these indexes. I am extremely surprised to see that Mikel Arteta
is not in the top ten. The Spaniard scored nine goals, got nine assists, won
the most free kicks for his team (103), thus creating dangerous situations,
which his perfect crosses (98 – again most in the Premiership) led to goals.
Back to the drawing board fellas.
stm2605, London, UK
What’s interesting is that there’s only one centre forward in the top ten, yet
it’s the likes of Drogba, Rooney etc that we remember most because their
goals often change or win games. What this shows is that their overall
contribution to the team might not be as big as we think. No goals equals a
poor rating (hence Bolton’s Davies in bottom place).
Marty, Jersey, Channel Islands
Have the authors checked whether the scores for all the team members together
are consistent with the team’s position in the league? For example, Bolton
were seventh in the league but their top two players are ranked 64th and
134th. That doesn’t sound like it tallies to me. Something like that might
give a cross check to the validity of the approach.
Keith, Dubai
This article may have had a point until Alexander Hleb appeared in the top
ten. It is also a scientific/mathematical fact that Hleb should never, under
any circumstances, appear in a top ten players of the season list.
ISL, Bradford
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These things are silly and always throw up wierd results. It's like asking a computer system to judge which were the two best paintings of the renaisance period.
Chris W, Lewisham, London
Whilst I appreciate the incite your approach gives, all statistical analyses are limited by the quality of the data.
Have you given consideration to, for instance, the fact that a pass counts as a pass regardelss of whether it's a 60 yard, defence splitting through-ball or it's a 5 yard "safety" pass. Likewise, a failed pass is a failed pass regardless of whether it almost created a goal scoring chance or gave away a sitter to the opposition attack.
Franko, London,
I love the stats. Does anyone not remember that Tevez was awful when he first played at West Ham (despite trying hard) which would have contributed to his poor position in the table?
My only single question is - would Robinson have been bottom of the heap if he didn't score his goal vs arch-England rival Ben Foster?
Dez, Preston,
Adding up your statistics for players gaining/losing points for their teams had Reading on a negative score. Did all of our 55 points - indeed, more than that to make up for the negative score - come from those players who featured infrequently enough to appear in your summary? If so they were probably all scored by Adam Federici, which would be incredible since he conceded two goals against Blackburn in the second of the two games where he replaced Marcus Hahnemann.
England's newest cap, Nicky Shorey, was according to you the worst Reading player of the players you ranked. Ranked 396 - nearly the worst player overall. Reading fans saw it rather differently, voting him second-highest in their poll (behind Ivar Ingimarsson).
Clearly your model is ridiculous.
Mike, Reading,
Dear stm2605, the use of indexes vexes, we are talking football not soccer so use indices please.
Steve Hewlett, Liverpool,
I'm not sure you can say that Gerrard is a better player than Lampard on England performances.
What has Gerrard done for England? Scored in Munich six years ago. Beat the might of Andorra single-handedly. Oh, and failed to form a partnership with both Lampard and Scholes.
Gerrard is undoubtedly a more naturally gifted player and more of an all-rounder.Lampard has worked his way to being Gerrard's equal. What Gerrard has in raw talent, Lampard makes up for in brain power.
CJ Ross, London, England
strange that people now think of football only as stats, its not darts!! I agreee with the man from Liverpool football is an ART!!
fair enough goals count but everyone prefers GOOD goals to goals, do you score more for a 30yard screamer after a couple of stepovers than a richochet off a players bum?
hmmm, not sure what this proves at all other than the times are trying to take a unique approach to football coverage, which i can't say is a bad thing. If someone agrees with these stats completely they don't know what football is all about
Ryan, manchester, UK
daniel, i always enjoy your columns. your comments on the probabilities of the best team winning a knockout tournament or even the league championship were especially refreshing.
just a few responses to some of your reader's comments:
1. bolton finished tied for 11th in goal differential. that will impact some of their player ratings negatively.
2. lampard finished second in goals to ronaldo among all midfielders. why wouldn't he rank highly?
3. drogba scored two more goals than mccarthy playing for a far superior team. why isn't it at least arguable that mccarthy would have been as valuable as drogba if both played for average teams?
barry, kansas city, usa
If the majority of bolton's squad would be worth a negative number of points to an average side, then how come they finished so high up in the league?
Are they an above average team made up of players performing below average?
Phil, Luton,
Exactly Julian, statistics can be used to prove anything. 47% of people know that!
Ollie, Nottingham,
"England's number 402" doesn't quite have the ring of England's number 1", but I am looking forward to the Spurs fans chanting it at White Hart Lane next season. That's assuming that Robinson makes the team, of course. Robinson should take some comfort in the knowledge that it is a scientific fact that statistics are wrong 73% of the time.
Julian, Canton, Ohio