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So how should we feel? There are four Barclays Premier League clubs in the last 16 of the Champions League. And Celtic, too. Shouldn’t we be feeling pretty good?
Well, no, not really. With only five British clubs in yesterday’s draw we should feel cheated. Dr Ian Graham and Dr Henry Stott have been working their usual Fink Tank magic on the Champions League draw – figuring out what it means for the clubs that remain. And this allows us to identify which clubs rightfully belong in a list of Europe’s top 16.
The Fink Tank model takes goals scored over the past two seasons in European leagues and weights them so that the most recent results count the most. This allows clubs to be ranked in each league. But how do we rank across leagues? What, say, does a domestic 6-0 win for Chelsea over Manchester City and a 2-2 draw between Olympiacos and Panathinaikos mean when looking at Chelsea’s chances against Olympiacos? We use matches from European competitions to be able to judge how strong the different leagues are. The result of all this work is a full European ranking.
We can thus tell how many British teams should be in Europe’s top 16. And the answer is six. The Champions League is not a league and it does not consist of champions, but it does not do badly. Eleven of the last 16 are there by rank and the top eight are all present. But Celtic, great club though they are, rank 60th in Europe and are flattered by their inclusion. Everton rank twelfth and Portsmouth thirteenth. Other clubs missing include Villarreal and Atlético Madrid.
Obviously, the next round should sort things further. Celtic (the weakest remaining side in the tournament) have only a 9.4 per cent chance of making it past Barcelona. Those who want to point out that Liverpool sprang a shock over Barcelona at the same stage last year might wish to recall that we gave Rafael BenÍtez’s boys a much higher chance – 35 per cent.
Chelsea and Seville had good luck with their opponents. Olympiacos are the fourteenth-best side left and Fenerbahçe the fifteenth. Manchester United, on the other hand, have had bad luck in drawing Lyons (always rated highly by the Fink Tank).
And Arsenal? It sounds worse than it is. AC Milan’s Serie A form this season is poor. We rank Milan eleventh out of the sides left, with Arsenal fourth. The round will be tricky for Arsenal, but they have a 60 per cent chance of powering through.
The impact of the draw is easiest to gauge by looking at the chance of a side winning the Champions League now as compared with before the draw. Barcelona have a 23.8 per cent chance, whereas before it was 20.2 per cent. United, by comparison, have gone down from 11.2 to 8.3 per cent. There is a 45.7 per cent chance of a Premier League side winning the cup, a 31.9 per cent chance that a Spanish team will become new holders and a 12.7 per cent probability of an Italian victor.
The full graphic shows what an open competition this is now. Barcelona have, it is true, a considerably bigger chance than any other club, but even so there is a more than 75 per cent chance that their effort will not be crowned with success.
And hold on to your hat, Roman Abramovich. Your club are second favourites, but there is still an 84 per cent chance you will have to keep waiting for that elusive European title.

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If Celtic or Rangers got the same TV contracts as even the bottom team in the EPL they would get to the last 16 3 out of every 4 seasons and luck of the draw might even win it . The year after Porto beat Celtic in the final they won the Champs League? The way people exagerate the standard of the EPL is geeting out of control the top 4 are good teams but after that there is nobody just look at the UEFA cup whear are all these other great teams that we have? Portsmouth or Everton may out rank Scottish teams 1 year but Celtic & Rangers are in top 40 every year and will be for the next 40 that is what a big team is not Portsmouth who were in old 3rd division not that long ago. TO BE A GREAT TEAM U DO IT EVERY YEAR & CELTIC HAVE DONE THAT. . To have only lost to Barca in all of there Chaps League games at home is a credit to them that no-one can dispute. I would put them above Chelsea they hadn't won the league for 50years????
Mark, Camden,LONDON, NW1
mark hughes, London, uk
I think this is worked out very logically and i have to say i agree with it. People who have a problem with this are obviously letting their emotions come in the way of sensible logic, and just because a team HAS beaten someone in the past doesn't make it likely again. Celtic fans seem to have an inflated opinion of their team!
mark, Southend, England
how stupid is that.... celtic could hammer anybody as they already have like : man u, ac milan, barca (2004), liverpool....
portsmouth have beat : nob'dy , zilch, zip....
do u get the point
bretto, johnstone, scotland
never read such a pile of nonsense in all my life. so what does the finktank suggest..? that we scrap the champions league in favour of a competition which only allows for the bigger wealthier nations. celtic are there on merit full stop. not only have they come through a group which included the current holders ac milan (who they beat at home) but they also had to qualify for the competition proper by beating spartak moscow due to scotlands current european co-efficient (a tool which is already there specifically weed out clubs from smaller nations). had their games against man utd last year been on a home and away record would have knocked them out of the competition. they also faired better last year against ac milan than either man utd or liverpool. the way this list is calculated is clearly biased. i suggest whoever came up with it takes a look at celtics perfomances against english taems in european competition..... he may be surprised.
johnny, portsmouth,
I think we should take a look at why Celtic are in the last 16 of the Champions League for a second season on the trot because in recent years we have outclassed Blackburn at Ewood Park, beaten Liverpool 2-0 at Anfield when it was one of the trickiest away ties in the Premiership, beaten Man Utd 1-0 at Celtic Park after being narrowly beaten at Old Trafford.(we would have knocked Man Utd out of the competition on away goals if it had been in the knockout round). we have also humbled the likes of AC Milan, Porto, Juventus, Barcelona, Benfica, Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk
andy, glasgow, scotland
Quote::
"celtcs record in europe is a joke when they travel, im just glad none of the English teams got them in the draw as we would have to put up the terrorist element of their support which is not welcome
derek, hemel hempstead, "
-----------------------------
What a joke!! 60,000 fans to Seville and not one arrest, FIFA fair play awards etc etc. What terrorist threat is here? Of course there will be less violence if you send Man utd fans to Rome, Liverpool fans to Belgium or Eng-er-land fans... anywhere!
Get a grip.
On another note, this article is a load of guff. Celtic would easily take Pompey on a two match tie. As a celtic fan, the only Enlgish team i would fear would be Man Yoo.
Andy, Glasgow, Scotland
I find it hysterical this is even being published!! what a bunch of lies!!
Celtic - Knockout Stages of the Champions League 2 Seasons in a Row, consecutive league and scottish cup champions, Beaten the likes of AC Milan, Juventus, Lyon, Porto
Portsmouth - Find it difficult to even reach europe! and get beaten by the likes of Sunderland!!
clear as day to see that a Biased Englishman has made this list!
Sean, Belfast, Ireland
Im a Celtic fan, now obviously this is complete rubbish, just a few years ago we dominated and battered a good Blackburn side at Ewood Park and I haven't even mentioned our victories over Liverpool and Man Utd.
The thing that really annoys me about this so-called system is the fact that Pompey and Everton are 12th and 13th yet top sides like Atleti and Villareal don't even make the list, are you mad?! Aguero and Matias Fernandes would walk straight into any EPL side let alone those two.
This is one of the worst articles I have read in a long time, have a good look at yourself and hang your head in shame...
Craig Shields, Aldershot,
The arrogance of SOME English football supporters will never cease to amaze me.
Trying to suggest that Portsmouth are a bigger or better club than Celtic in any way, shape or form is absolutely ludicrous.
ambassador, Glasgow,
If it came to a match Pompey V Celtic , I think anyone who knows anything about football would confidently predict an easy Pompey victory, so I dont know why all the Celtic fans are getting mardy about it. I think the article has got it about right.
-------------------------------
ARE YOU SERIOUS!??
So, you think Portsmouth could easily beat Celtic, when AC Milan (The champions of Europe) failed to do so...a mere....4 months ago?
You sir, an idiot.
Thomas, glasgow,
Oh Dear, Oh Dear.. It seems to be that elements of a portion of English psyche will never change. 'Holier than thou', doesn't quite cut it!
Listen. Everton had a shot at it. They couldn't even make it past the qualifiers. Pompey will get nowhere near qualifying for the qualifiers.
There was a projection made about 6 or 7 years ago, during the height of the clamour to get the Old Firm in the EPL that showed Celtic would rival, and probably eclipse Man Utd as the biggest/wealthiest club in the world within 5 years should they ply thier trade in EPL cash cow. Hence the understandable aversion to it from the lower EPL teams. It was reported in Arena magazine. Look it up.
These are the plain facts, as is the fact that Celtic have consistently beaten clubs of similar stature in Europe: Barcelona, Man U, Liverpool, Juventus, Valencia etc.
This is one of the most mental somersaults of logic and reason I have seen in a footy debate for quite some time.
N Gallagher, Tyrone, Ireland
Oh, BEHAVE! :-)
N Gallagher, Tyrone, Ireland
As nearly 90% of the readers up until now have thrashed the content of this article as being unnewsworthy trollop, it leaves me just to say this:
The answer to the question posed in the headline of the article "Why Portsmouth and Everton rank higher than Celtic" is simply because they play against clubs such as Chelsea, Man Utd etc more frequently, and have performed well in these fixtures in recent years.
This skews the results greatly as Celtic have less highly ranked teams in their league to push up their "ranking". It would be interesting to reveal how Rosenborg, Ajax, Porto, Lisbon or Moscovite teams performed, as teams who play in Europe, regularly but in comparatively weak leagues.
Cormac Murtagh, Melbourne, Australia
Eachann, even though i feel your comments come with some resentment to previous comments you may well have a good point. Celtic have a massive fan base, and with the amount of cash and income that pompey receive, i think you may well give the Champs league a good go!
Craig Farrow, Southampton, England
I propose a sensible solution to the debate :
Let Celtic in to the EPL, and let Celtic get the same TV contracts and regular experience against the Top 4 that Portsmouth get, then see what happens.
As it is at the moment I'd say Celtic are better than most mid level Premiership teams. You think Pompey could beat Benfica 3-0? AC Milan 2-1? Or Barcelona 2-1?
I doubt it very much.
Eachann, Oban, Scotland
I think the man makes a very valid point. The Champions League is no longer about champions anymore, its about the best teams competing for the title of European Champions. Celtic are way below the standard required at that level
Large John, Kent,
celtcs record in europe is a joke when they travel, im just glad none of the English teams got them in the draw as we would have to put up the terrorist element of their support which is not welcome
derek, hemel hempstead,
Why bother playing the champions league games? Just give the trophy to the team that wins the English Premiership.
Damo, Waterford, Ireland
lies dammed lies and statistics,who ever compiled this graph i of guff,is a deluded rangers supporter any statistician can see that
stephen, johnstone, scotland
I'm not so much interested in the conclusion, more interested in the maths behind it. Might help me with my fixed odds.
Celtic Bhoy, Manama, Bahrain
Who are Portsmouth?
Seriously, this is the most jelous and bitter article I have ever read.
Enjoy watching us knock Barcelona out, AGAIN, like we did 3 years ago.
Jim, Glasgow, Scotland
Nearly had me there, but then I read this piece of genius and realised your Fink Tank haven't a clue. All is well for Celtic's hopes.
"Manchester United, on the other hand, have had bad luck in drawing Lyons (always rated highly by the Fink Tank)"
Your having a laff - Lyon are rank rotten!
Timothy , Aberdeen,
We knocked Barca out of Europe in 2003 !
Whats all the fuss about ? The "Fink Tank" could be renamed very easily...................................
Up da Celts !
Lisboa67, Derry,
60th? Absolute nonsense. By this logic Celtic could probably win every single spl game 10-0 and still not make the European top 50 simply by virtue of the quality of the opposition they face week in, week out. They can only beat what's in front of them and, in Europe and in their domestic league, Celtic's record in recent seasons speaks for itself.
Mandlan, Glasgow,
just as celtic are restricted by the teams they play domestically portsmouth are enhanced by the teams they play and if it were not for this fact and the money and coverage that those bigger teams generate portsmouth would be another middling team with crowds no bigger than a hearts or aberdeen and with a less successful and prestigous history. cast your minds back a few years ago when portsmouth were a 1st division club regularly found in the bottom 5/6 of that league and it was only by the introduction of a rather shady serbian character with eyes on sky's tv money and a whealer dealer boss that they got anywhere near the premiership.
i also have to question those rankings you've used to substanciate your claim, how portsmouth can be ranked above celtic using european results when portsmouth haven't yet played in europe is beyond me.
i think most sensible people will agree that celtic's potential is not fully exploited playing the spl whereas pompy are given new potential by EPL
Richard, Leeds, England
apart from the obvious failings of this article there is also the glaring irony of the english football fan taking some sort of superior stance on things football because of the premierships success. the success of this league is down mainly to the influx of foreign players attracted to the money which clubs are prepared to pay. yet this very fact that has lead to a better standard of football and a world wide audience has contributed to the decline of the english national team and the erosion of the grass level building bocks. yet still some english footie fans try to claim a superior stance on footie matters despite this obvious inconsistancy in the logic.
my advice to those said fans who like to run off at the mouth is to prepare for the bumpy ride that fooballing powers are about to take us on, there are so many conflicting interests that something will have to give and it may not be prett to watch and will most likely change the game of football as we knew and fell in love wit
Richard, Leeds, England
Please don't take it so seriously! The article is not saying that Celtic should be immediately removed, but that the format of the competition and the criteria for qualifying do not leave the 16 best European teams in the competition. In theory Everton and Portsmouth are better than Celtic and should be there instead, but in reality that isn't going to happen as only 4 places go to the Premiership. However, Celtic are there and not Everton or Portsmouth and their fans should just enjoy their game with Barca.
An interesting and logical article, but I don't see UEFA changing their qualifying criteria any time soon.
Tom, Chester,
Nonsense.
David, Motherwell,
You CAN'T be serious!! The above absolute clown who 'wrote' this (do they still make Tezas Instruments kiddy pooterz then?) CAN'T be a paid 'journalist'?1lol...Deary me! Not even a blinkered Mother could take this chimp seriously!!lol
Ewan, Inverness, Inverness-shire, Scotland
fairs fair, you cant possibly compare a club like portsmouth
to celtic,
portsmouth club representitives would find this article embarrasing,
if portsmouth played celtic 10 times , theyd do well to win 2 games with a couple of draws,
gerry, Liverpool,
If it came to a match Pompey V Celtic , I think anyone who knows anything about football would confidently predict an easy Pompey victory, so I dont know why all the Celtic fans are getting mardy about it. I think the article has got it about right.
HSBGuzzler, Cheltenham, Glos
listen most celtic fans realize that we can' t compete with the financial clout of the premship but the gap in revenue over the border has only been present in the last 30 years or so , the facts read celtic have played 239 times in all european competitions two EC finals ( witch we won one ) Quarter finals 4 times one euefa final and countless domestic honours to even compare us to a LOWLY club like pompy (who don't even know what a can of duraglit looks like) is insulting to anybody that knows anything about football, a little bit like harry redknap trying to compare himself to stein, shankly, busby & fergie !!!!
tony clark, glasgow,
This might be the most pointless article I have ever seen. What a load of nonsense. Everton 12th in europe. Ye they did really well when they qualified for the champions leauge. Oh no wait a minute they got knocked out at the first hurdle. All the teams in the last 16 are there on merit.
Steve, Inverness,
Stuart from Winchester..
Liverpool 0 Celtic 2
Blackburn 0 Celtic 2
Man U 3 Celtic 2
All of those games were away from home in European competition against EPL sides.
Ciaran, Dublin,
This article is utter garbage and if it were in print, the only decent purpose it would serve would be to keep my fish supper warm in a few days time.
I hope this 'fink tank' don't get paid for what they do.
Claptrap!
Gerry, Glasgow,
RE: Alf in Dubai
How can you suggest that Celtic don't deserve to be in the last sixteen of the Champions League because they scored two last minute goals?
Whether a goal is scored in the first minute or the last minute, it's a goal. Goals win football matches. Wins equal points and nine points meant qualification from Celtic's group.
This article is ridiculous and only goes to show that you can prove anything with statistics. As former Aberdeen manager Ebbe Skovdahl once said, "statistics are like mini skirts. They give you good ideas but hide the most important thing."
JJ, Oban, Scotland
Dear oh dear! I'm sure the majority of fair minded English fans, inclusing Pompey would see this article for what it is....a joke....Celtic qualified on merit....they should be congratulated for a magnificent effort
Steven Fallens, Melbourne, Australia
Excuse me Paul Stubbs of Fareham, if Portsmouth were Scottish, they:
a) would have nowhere near the revenue they have now
b) would have to concede they aren't from the capital or other major city, therefore smaller support, less gate receipts
c) would not be able to attract the sort of players they have now
d) would have a far lesser manager
etc. etc.
Your arguement is that of a child's. If Portsmouth were a more attractive proposition, they could attract better players and who knows, maybe one day win something. In the meantime, you have to settle for playing in a league only 3 teams can potentially win, with the 3 runners up being allowed into the Champion's League anyway, not to mention the Uefa spots. Try harder, you have more chance of European action than most teams in Europe!
And to the guy that said that Celtic didn't deserve their win over Milan due to the goal coming in the last minute, well, i'm sorry, i didn't know that football matches were only 89 minutes long! Damn!
David, Glasgow,
The feeble SPL.If pompey were in the SPL they would not get the 40million TV money and would be just as "feeble" if not more so that the teams being put down in comment above i.e. aberdeen, hearts and kilmarnock.Furthermore they would be desposed of by both sides of the old firm if they lived in the same financial environment.To put it bluntly portsmouth are a small club who even with the 40million a season head start would find it hard to compete with the old firm nevermind if they had 2 compete on a level playing field in terms of TV rights etc.
The old firm are two of the worlds biggest clubs.Although it appears a lot fans south of the border fail to recognize this fact there clubs do not.Celtic and Rangers will never gain access to the premiership not because your Man Utd,Chelsea Liverpool and Arsenals dont want them there, but because the other 16 teams dont want them ther because instead of four super powers to contend with there would be six.
Steven, Glasgow,
Way to ignite a rivalry that never existed before - Celtic v. Portsmouth!
Is this how wars start?
Kevin, London,
Celtic show their true quality every time they play away from home in Europe.......mid table Premier League club at best.
Stuart, Winchester,
Portsmouth , if they played in the SPL , would get SPL level revenue and be about the same as hearts, hibs, aberdeen etc.
They are nowhere near Celtic's class and stature - this article is a joke
SurreyBhoy, Carshalton, Surrey
bottom line Portsmouth arr NOT in the champion, they are NOT good enough to make it out of the group stages if they were, and are club with absolutly no comparritive history or status. No one has mentioned the face celtic are past Winners of the european cup, finalists and more recently last 16 team. Facts are there.
these two doctor twits are having a laugh. u can keep your fink tank. HAIL HAIL
No.7, Helsingbourg,
What a load of absolute rubbish.Portsmouth, ?? Champions league no disrespect to Pompey but unfortunaley what people failt to understand is the cash generated by the existing CL format is directly related to your domestic TV contract. The top teams will always get more cash & subsequently appear higher ranked. GIRUY. Celtic 2 AC Milan 1.
Guy, Smallwood, England
Portsmouth would probably win away from home in Europe though, something that Celtic have failed to do in their entire Champions League history
paul, glasgow, scotland
Typical English arrogance. There are NO British teams playing in the Champions League. There are teams from the English FA and the Scottish FA. Both have their own leagues and their own co-efficients. To suggest that a team like Portsmouth are rnked 13th In Europe is utter tosh. What is their European pedigree? They merely play in a stronger league with access to more money.
Gerry Sweeney, Airdrie, Scotland
Celtic should not be there. Two last minute goals were the only thing to see them through.
Not winning away in 16 either proves Celtics credentials are rotten.
Alf, dubai, UAE
Utter nonsense article. Well seeing that 'think' is spelt 'fink' ! Football fans around the world know who celtic are & our home CL record is 2nd best in europe, we can beat any team & some of the wins were against english teams recently. Portsmouth are nothing in comparison & this article will be getting laughed at up & down the UK.
jason, london, UK
good gawd, what a crazy article.
a team that have got into the last 16 of the champions league for the 2nd year in a row, beating the reigning champions of europe along the way, "rank 60th in Europe and are flattered by their inclusion". only in mr finkelstein's head, however.
maybe for finkelstein's next piece he might like to compare and contrast the relative amounts of television money that portsmouth and celtic receive each year. portsmouth will get something like £40m from the premier league's new tv deal this season. celtic get about £1m from setanta.
this is an incredibly silly article.
john, dublin,
Portsmouth are the 13th best team in Europe? Hmmmm.
Portsmouth could not contend with Celtic or Rangers. Any match between Portsmouth and any of the Old Firm would result in a heavy defeat for Portsmouth. This article goes to prove that there are "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics". Utter rubbish.
This article demonstrates one of the following: You hire arrogant morons; You don't have any proof readers, The editor doesn't review content, The Times has a fantastic sense of humour. For the newspaper's sake, I hope it's the latter.
Or is it just another one of those "be controversial to drum up some interest" pieces.
Mark, North of the Watford gap,
if pompey were scottish we would be in europe every season and easily winning the feeble SPL on a regular basis. look at who celtic have to beat to get in the champs league - aberdeen, hearts, kilmarnock. Then look who pompey have to beat to get anywhere near to qualifying for the UEFA cup - Everton, Aston Villa, Spurs, Blackburn etc. i think we can all agree the Prem is far superior and that is how Pompey are the higher ranked team.
pompey are not playing pub teams everyweek, celtic are, and this somehow grants them a path into the lucrative Champ League despite being inferior to half the Premier League.
Paul Stubbs, Fareham,
It is true that Portsmouth are not good enough to WIN the champions league. But, having said that, they could just as easily to as well as, if not better than celtic. Portsmouth too have beat manchester united last season - in the prmier league, a feat liverpool and cheea did not manage - as well as drawining with arsnal twice, and liverpool. There record against the top English teams would suggest they could do just as well as Celtic in the Champions League.
Graeme - Celtic (probaly, im not sure) get by with just as much cash as Portsmouth and Everton, and besides, the talent is there, the money is irelvant in terms of success. Money does not guarentee a good football team.
equally, Darryl - the size of a fan club does not determine how good a club is at football either. You can have the biggest fan club in the world, but with out he players, do you really deserve to be in the champions league? Leeds have a bigger fan club than Portsmouth, but they play in the First Division
Pete, Portsmouth,
So what was Celtic's percentage chance to beat AC Milan this season then? What about Manchester United last season? What about Barcelona, Juventus, Lyon and Liverpool in seasons past? Pretty low I'd imagine.
Celtic can be in the last 16 because we beat these teams. Portsmouth don't.
Paul, North Shields, England
Celtic are in the last 16 as champions of Scotland and through successfully navigating a qualifying round ro make it to the Group stages. If anyone is flattered to be there it is clearly clubs like Arsenal , Liverpool and Chelsea who neither qualified nor for that matter were champions of their league.
Celtic also made it to the last 16 WITHOUT the vast sums of money which the Premiership clubs accrue.
Take the money out of English football and you'd been in as bad a state as your national side is !
Graeme, glasgow,
Celtic are one of the greatest clubs in the World with a massive world-wide fan base (ranked alongside Man United, Barca, Real Madrid, Juve and the two Milan clubs).
Darryl Scholey, Sheffield, UK
Helloooo! Its the "Champions" League. Something Pompey will never aspire to.
S. McCloy, Southampton,
lmao.. this is a joke... right?
why are portsmouth not there? because there not good enough.
how are celtic there? Celtic beat ac milan. they beat shakhtar, they beat benfica. they got 9 points.
last season , Celtic were the first in there group to secure the last 16 spot with the mighty man utd being humbled by the hoops.
Celtic ranked 60th? i dont think so.. i dont know what rankings you's are looking at but either you's cant count or made the rankings yourself. a quick google search has celtic at 19th.
in short, portsmouth are not there because they are not good enough to qualify for the comp in the first place.
celtic are.
celtic have proved there worth by beating your ac milan's and man utd's. benfica, shaktar, juve, liverpool, villa real,Valencia Bayern Munich porto have all came to parkhead looking for a win and failed.
Since 2001 20 wins
6 draws
2 Defeat
to ajax and barca
Brian, glasgow,
Total Twaddle! Celtic are a much better club with a vastly larger support than Portsmouth!!!
Henrik, Paradise,
"Celtic, great club though they are, rank 60th in Europe and are flattered by their inclusion."
Celtic are champions. They won the league in Scotland. They don't get as many "Uefa points" for it, but they did it. They qualified for The Champion's League by beating Spartak Moscow over two legs (winning the league still did not guarantee a direct route through to the group stages) and beat Shaktar, Benfica and AC Milan to progress to the last 16 with 9 points, an amount that is, on average, enough to take a team through.
I don't know what the problem is.
David, Leicester, England
This Is Some ********
How Can The Team With The Most Point From The Group Stages Not Be Among The Top Two?
Makes Absolutely No SENSE!
Wiley Greezy, Birmingham, England