Click here to see the percentage chances of teams in the FA Cup

All right, gather round you punters, I have some advice for you. Place your bet to win the FA Cup on Brighton & Hove Albion. Honestly. Trust me, I’ll see you right.

Dr Ian Graham and Dr Henry Stott have been running the numbers on the FA Cup to give some guidance on who is likely to lift the trophy this season. Their work involved rating the strength of each club using goals and shots on goal over two seasons. The clubs could then be ranked, without division markers, to give the probability of different outcomes when they meet each other. Finally, the tournament was simulated 100,000 times to take account of the vast number of different paths the tournament could take after the third round.

Over the weekend we will hear some tales of derring-do and extraordinary humiliation. How can I be so sure? Because giant-killing is routine. Only if there was no giant-killing should you be amazed.

The chance of at least one team being knocked out of the third round by a side from a lower division is 99.72 per cent. We should expect the round to pass without upsets of this kind roughly once every 400 years.

Even the most extraordinary upset is surprisingly likely. An average Premier League side playing away to an average Blue Square Premier team has a 13 per cent probability of being denied victory.

The most likely giant-killing this weekend - Ipswich Town defeating Portsmouth (33 per cent chance). And watch out for Stoke City who have a 28 per cent chance of knocking out Newcastle United. There is also a 24 per cent probability that Birmingham City will be humbled by Huddersfield Town.

The draw has made a huge impact on the probability of FA Cup victory by Premier League clubs as Martin O’Neill will ruefully acknowledge after his Aston Villa side were paired with Manchester United. The result is that three Coca-Cola Championship sides – West Bromwich Albion, Cardiff City and Southampton – rank above Manchester City, Sunderland, Wigan Athletic and Derby County. The biggest beneficiary of the draw was Southend United whose chances were boosted by 229 per cent by being paired with Dagenham & Redbridge. But among the serious contenders, Blackburn Rovers, Chelsea and Liverpool did well.

Which brings me to the chances of winning the Cup. Like all knockout competitions, the chances of any one club winning the trophy aren’t that big. So Chelsea have what is, historically, a remarkably high chance of pulling it off, but even for them there is a 76 per cent chance of disappointment. The concentration of power in English football is exposed by there being a 71.8 per cent chance that one of the big four will lift the Cup. Outside the big four only one club, Tottenham Hotspur, have more than a 4 per cent win probability.

If you fancy a flutter you are going to have a hard time finding a good repository for your cash. Manchester United and Liverpool are thought mildly more likely by us to win the Cup than they are by the bookies, Arsenal mildly less. We fancy West Brom much more than the bookies do. But the outstanding bet is Brighton. We think their chance of being Cup winners is 160 per cent greater than the bookies do.

One further piece of advice. To make this bet worthwhile, you must bet on massive underdogs for the next 2,000 years. Hope that’s OK. Or should I have mentioned that at the beginning?

finktank@thetimes.co.uk