Daniel Finkelstein
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A million pounds here, a million pounds there, pretty soon it adds up to real
money. This summer, while the Fink Tank was searching behind the sofa for
some loose change to buy a new pocket calculator, Aston Villa went to the
shops and splashed £7.5 million on Nigel Reo-Coker.
Which of us got better value for money? You are about to find out.
Dr Henry Stott and Dr Ian Graham have been sifting through the summer trades
in order to see how they’ve been doing. They have had the help of our player
level computer model. This takes every kick of the ball and relates it to
the number of points it helps to create. Then the season is simulated again
and again with the acquired player and without them (they are replaced by a
player of average quality in the same position).
Once this work is done it is possible to rank all the newly transferred
players in terms of the points they have added (or subtracted) compared with
the average player. Actually, not quite all. Quite a few transferred players
haven’t been on the pitch enough to rank. Lassana Diarra, the midfield
player, went from Chelsea to Arsenal and on to Portsmouth without being on
the pitch long enough for us to assess his contribution to Arsène Wenger’s
side.
Now you have a choice. Do you want to look at how good these players were per
minute on the pitch, or do you want to take account of how many minutes they
played?
Let’s look at their contribution per minute first, shall we? You might
consider this a measure of potential, and therefore of longer-term interest.
At the top is Carlos Tévez, the Manchester United forward. Last season we
didn’t rank him so highly, but then he didn’t score for West Ham United
until the curtains were beginning to close. This season he has been a
sensation. Second comes Kieran Richardson, the Sunderland midfield player,
although he has played in only 22 per cent of the games. Then comes Gareth
Bale, the left-sided player, who looks like a good buy for Tottenham
Hotspur.
Things change when we multiply the points added by these players by the number
of minutes they spent playing. As you can see from the graphic. Tévez and
Fernando Torres, the Liverpool forward, won’t surprise many, but it turns
out that Bacary Sagna, Arsenal’s £6 million defender, was a great buy. It
will not cause heads to turn at Goodison Park to discover Yakubu Ayegbeni
right up there, but it may interest Chelsea fans that Florent Malouda is the
most valuable of their summer buys.
Who has been flopping so far? Reo-Coker has been a terrible disappointment. He
has lost 8.1 points compared to an average player. Alan Smith, the Newcastle
United player, hasn’t done terribly well either. What about Darren Bent? Not
a flop. Yet. He is 0.3 points above average despite playing so little. Fink
Tank has always rated him and thought he was worth a lot of money – but not
to Tottenham.
The question of value for money is hardest to calculate because we don’t know
the proper transfer cost. Tévez counts as free, does he? Yeah, right. Until
we know salary data we cannot rule on the best deals. Which is why fans
should be told such details. It allows us to assess the game better.
So I think that I am probably better off with my pocket calculator than with
one slightly used Reo-Coker. But until there is a proper Football Freedom of
Information Act, I can’t be sure.
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Nigel Reo Coker has been a great signing for Martin O'Neil, you only have to look at Aston Villa's position in the league.
West Ham have not been able to replace him and will likely end up back in the Championship next season.
mike, suffolk, UK
I had such a laugh at this article. It proves exactly why computer models should never replace human judgement.
Mike, Barrow-in-Furness,
I can only agree with the above comments. If Aston Villa were floundering at the foot of the Premiership it would be reasonable to seriously question the abilities of all the players. However, 5th position is a massive improvement over recent seasons and it has coincided with Reo-Coker's arrival at the club. I also agree that Villa have not yet seen the best from him but to suggest he is a flop is unfair and insulting.
Ray, Bromsgrove, Worcs
Clearly Reo Coker must be a flop to work the engine room of a 5th placed team? I think it's sour grapes as Villa have be getting a lot of good press lately.
David, Sutton, UK
I think you need to use your Reo Coker analysis as a case study for refining the computer model.I was not overly enthusiastic when we signed Nigel however he has added much needed power and pace to our midfield.Yes he is not the finished article but he is a long way from the 'flop' that you portray.
Mike, Solihull,
Your foolproof computer model unfortunately cannot measure the impact a player has on morale, and any other number of intangible factors that cannot be "explained" by a mountain of stats or a statistician sufficiently bored of life to analyse them. Reo-Coker has yet to prove himself a first-rate signing but has been solid enough. "A terrible disappointment" ? I think any Villan would disagree, particularly seeing as Villa are 5th - where are the team Kieran Richardson plays for hmm ?
Gareth, Sydney, Australia
I always find Fink Tank interesting. In this case, as an Aston Villa fan who has been very impressed with Reo-Coker, it is especially so. Why the disparity between my view and Reo-Coker's rating? No idea.
What I will say is that he has been a vital part of Aston Villa's rise to fifth in the league, adding much-needed 'bite' to midfield. SImply, I do not believe Aston Villa would be fifth with the 'average player' there - let alone better off. In my books it was £7.5m well-spent.
Still, who am I to argue with the Fink Tank computer? Get him dropped, Martin. Bring back Gavin McCann...
JR, Birmingham,