You. Stop. Now. Let me come over with my spreadsheets and we’ll sort the whole thing out, the two of us. But you have to shut up and listen.

The controversy over the Premier League’s proposals for a 39th game held abroad has been extraordinary. I just thought it might help if we had some figures to look at. It won’t end the debate – indeed even in the Fink Tank lab the test tubes have been flying – but it is sure to help.

The first point to note is that the Premier League is not fair as it is. Last week I showed the big changes to the league table that might be caused if shots that hit the posts went in. The season is not long enough to iron out such luck.

So if you are obsessed with fairness – with making sure the teams finished in the order that their true quality demands – you would need multi-year seasons and longer games. Why don’t we have those? For commercial reasons and because we quite like the unpredictability of the present set-up. The Premier League proposal simply adds to both of those.

How much by, though? Dr Henry Stott and Dr Ian Graham are ready with the answers.

Using the games played so far, the remaining fixtures and our measure of team strength based on goals and shots, it is possible to calculate where we expect teams to finish at the end of this 38-game season. We can then add in a 39th game with a random draw and simulate the season a further 10,000 times.

Once you’ve done this you can see how much difference having a 39th game would make on average. And the answer? Very little indeed. And in interesting ways.

Take Arsenal. They lead the table and we expect them to win the title. This isn’t certain, by any means, but it is the average outcome of our calculations. We do not, however, regard them as the best side. If the season went on, Manchester United and Chelsea would start catching them. So having an extra game reduces Arsenal’s chances of taking the title slightly, but you could argue that this is fairer, not less fair.

Similarly Liverpool. The longer the season goes on, the more likely they are to finish in a position that their true quality warrants.

There is, however, a problem. Quite a serious one. We conducted the draw 10,000 times and, on average, it made no difference adding in a wild-card fixture. The Premier League would do it once. And the results of any one random draw could make a significant difference.

The graphic shows what happens with one sample draw. Wigan Athletic, having been drawn against Manchester United, see their chances of relegation go up from 33 per cent to 38 per cent.

At the top of the table, if there is a seeding system, there isn’t much of a change in chances, since most teams outside the top four are of roughly equal quality.

Why would clubs down at the bottom agree to it? They’ve done the maths. Our rough calculations show that the money at risk is dwarfed by the money potentially available. Compare the £1.6 million Wigan might lose if they face the nightmare of an extra game against Manchester United with the sort of money cities bid to have a Grand Prix staged in their town and you see the difference in scale.

Fair? Unfair? Take your pick. There is a great deal of luck involved in the Premier League. This isn’t a very big new element. But it may be too much for your taste.