Graphic: road to Rome

I am rather enjoying the spat between Manchester United and Real Madrid over Cristiano Ronaldo. And I think it is good for the game. Not because of its impact on the free movement of labour, or whatever, but because I think Europe could do with a blood feud or two.

Actually, I will rephrase that. I think European club football could do with a blood feud or two. As a Jew, I’d rather European blood feuds stopped there.

Anyway, I’ve noticed that when Chelsea are playing, say, Barcelona, the fans are singing about Leicester City. And while Portsmouth were playing AC Milan, their fans’ biggest concern was whether Southampton fans were watching. I think it is high time for some proper grudges that span the Continent. So well done, Sir Alex Ferguson.

Not, incidentally, that feuds or grudges change match results or probabilities. It’s just that they would be fun.

In the meantime we’ll have to make do with a Champions League contest based on merit and talent rather than obscure disputes lost in the mists of time.

Now that the draw has taken place, there is quite a lot Fink Tank can tell you about how that merit contest will pan out. Dr Henry Stott, Dr Ian Graham and Dr Mark Latham have put all the teams remaining into our computer model, which uses goals and shots on goal to rank sides.

The first thing we can tell you is that the Champions League is more likely than not to be won by a team from the Barclays Premier League. Between them Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal have a 52 per cent chance of collecting the trophy. Want to understand Michel Platini’s desire to emasculate the Premier League? The chance of a French winner is less than 2 per cent.

The group section of the tournament did not do much to change the competition. Werder Bremen, Zenit St Petersburg and Fiorentina went out despite being among the top 16 clubs. But they will not be much missed — between the three of them they had only a 3.6 per cent chance of winning.

The draw didn’t change things much, either. Lyons took a bit of a hit — their chance of winning went down by 0.9 per cent, when it was already small.

Taken together, the draw and the group round have solidified United’s position as favourites, with a 19.2 per cent chance, and boosted Barcelona, while slightly reducing Chelsea’s chances of lifting the trophy they want so badly.

The underlying stats are pretty interesting, too. Why on earth does Ronaldo dream of Real? If United played Real on a neutral ground, United would be more than twice as likely to win — they are that much better. On the other hand, it is easier to comprehend how Juande Ramos was recruited by Real after being at Tottenham Hotspur. Spurs and Real are broadly the same standard. Look, what do you want me to do about it? I’m just telling you — that’s what the figures show.

United are the best team in Europe, but that is not to do with Ronaldo. It is to do with Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. Ferguson’s team are top for defence but only seventh in attack.

Chelsea have the second-best defence, but the twelfth-best attack. Real want Ronaldo because they are sixth in attack. They are, on the other hand, 45th in defence and might care to see what they can do about that before chasing another forward.

Then again, that might not annoy Ferguson. And where would the fun be in that?