Setting the table: How clubs rank for different statistics

Since I started writing the Fink Tank I have become an irritating person to watch a football match with. Actually, let me rephrase that. Since I started writing the Fink Tank I have become an even more irritating person to watch a football match with.

There are several reasons for this, but here are three. The first is that I refuse to express an opinion about anything I haven't studied on a spreadsheet. Or allow anyone else to. I interrupt all football gossip by questioning basic propositions. How annoying is that?

Second, I am dogmatic about the probabilities of winning and losing. When asked to take account of, say, the rain or a missing player, I repeatedly refuse.

But I think it is the third thing that I do that is most annoying. I suddenly pronounce, while watching the play: “They are going to score now.” I am not always right, I admit. But I have certainly found that the Fink Tank has helped me to watch a match more intelligently and figure out what is happening and what might be about to happen.

Dr Henry Stott, Dr Ian Graham and Dr Mark Latham have developed a model that allows us to value the contribution made by each player in a season. The first step in this work is to look at every on-field action they make and see how that action relates to the number of points they gain. And it is this piece of work that also allows us to watch matches with more insight.

What you want to know when you are in the stands is a conditional probability. What is our chance of winning, given that we have more of some aspect of the action? Just as an example, you see that your team are getting more corners. Everyone is getting very excited. But is it really a good sign? How should you rate it?

Now (obviously) the chance of winning if you score more goals than the opposition is 100 per cent. But what is your chance of winning given that you have more shots on target? The number is high and statistically significant. For all the Barclays Premier League games since the start of 2000-01, the team who got more shots on target won 66 per cent of the time.

If, when watching a match, you see your team repeatedly get attempts on target, it is likely that they will score. More than anything else, you should watch for this.

On the other hand, do not cheer so hard when you get a corner. The team who had the most corners won only 40.5 per cent of the time. And the relationship to victories is not statistically significant. How can this be? Simple. A corner is very nice to have, but it is also a missed opportunity to cross the ball.

One of the reasons that the Fink Tank values goalkeepers so highly is that the team with the higher proportion of saved shots wins 64 per cent of the time. But there is a catch (no pun intended). The team who have to make the most saves win only 30 per cent of the time - and this, again, is significant.

Here is a surprising thing to watch out for. Offsides. Being caught offside is frustrating for fans. However, the teams caught offside the most are doing well. There is a 42 per cent chance of winning the match if you have been caught offside the most. In other words, you should treat offsides as a more encouraging indicator than corners.

Enjoy the match.