Graphic: long-term strategy has its plus points

Arsène Wenger doesn’t believe in trying to win Arsenal’s next match. I’ve actually heard him say that. And, believe me, it was one of the best things I’ve ever heard. Certainly the best thing I’ve ever heard anyone say about football.

Wenger’s point is that his aim was to improve Arsenal on average, to lift the club over the long run and not to think only about next week’s opponents. And in this he is gloriously, spectacularly correct. He understands that single games make only one data point on a curve. He believes in strategy rather than tactics.

Understanding the idea of a mean and random variation around it would not normally accord you the title of “Professor”. But in football, in my experience, it is deserving of a Nobel Prize.

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So in the Fink Tank, Wenger has a fan. We understand his idea of trying to improve over time. And that helped to inform the study into Arsenal that Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Dr Ian Graham have been conducting.

The first thing they did was to use our basic computer model — which weighted goals and shots on goal to rank teams and measure their underlying strength — to see how Arsenal have been performing over time. Stretching back to the glory days of May 2002, you can see their strength drop off sharply and ever so slowly creep back again. Their overall strength now is slightly greater than it was in May 2002, when they won the Premier League.

Unfortunately, others have strengthened even faster. Since 2004-05, Arsenal have, in attack, typically been about 90 per cent as good as Manchester United (the best attacking team) and 80 per cent as good as Chelsea (the best team in defence).

How worried should Wenger be about the start to this season? Arsenal’s biggest problem was in shots on goal conversion. At both ends of the field. In other words, they were letting in a greater proportion of the shots at their goal and scoring a smaller proportion. This may worry more someone who has less interest in statistics than Wenger. He will appreciate that the conversion rate fluctuates and that the team simply need to keep hitting the target and preventing others from doing so.

Who are his big stars? The five players adding the most points compared with an average one in their position are Emmanuel Adebayor, followed by Denilson, with Mikaël Silvestre next. Fourth comes Samir Nasri and then Cesc Fàbregas. Fans should be booing Abou Diaby rather than Emmanuel Eboué (if they have to boo someone). And Nicklas Bendtner is struggling. The statistics for Theo Walcott are also surprisingly poor (he loses points compared with the average). It is too early to rate Andrey Arshavin.

The best way of rating Wenger is by looking at how Arsenal do against the salary bill. We are able to plot graphs with the number of points gained on one axis and the salary bill on the other. A curve through the graph shows how many points you would expect Arsenal to pick up for the cash they splash. In the 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05 seasons, Wenger was an above-the-line manager, achieving a greater number of points than expected. And in 2005-06 and 2006-07, Arsenal were on the line. What they regarded as disappointing was, in fact, normal.

The bar chart below gives last season’s statistics. It shows Arsenal above the line again, achieving a greater number of points than expected. A critic may point to all the clubs who did even better with their money, but Wenger understands numbers. And he will know that you can’t take one year by itself. Take the years together and Mr Wenger is a cut above.