If England qualify for Euro 2008, there will be a series of meetings between the FA and the head coach. Preparation for the finals starts straight away. But the FA should not be sorting out comfortable beds in a nice hotel, a decent training ground and shopping arrangements for the WAGs. They should be asking Steve McClaren: “So, why should we take you to Austria and Switzerland? How can you convince us that we shouldn’t sack you after what we’ve seen in the past 18 months?”

Of course, at least a point against Croatia tomorrow and McClaren is bound to be given the chance to lead England next summer. But he is not the right man for the job. Israel beating Russia does not make him any more suitable, it just makes him lucky. With all their talent, England should never be in a position of having to rely on other nations doing them a favour, especially in a group without any top-class teams. That tells the true story, not whether England finish first or second.

McClaren may say that he is still learning. I would say that he is still making mistakes yet he is hardly new to the job. His team selection against Austria on Friday smacked of a man fearing the end who wanted another win on his CV. By picking most of his best XI he neglected the match at Wembley that is so crucial. He throws players in at the deep end - Joleon Lescott against Russia last month – and does not give the likes of Theo Walcott and Gabriel Agbonlahor the gentle introductions into the senior team that they need.

Errors early in the qualifying campaign as he experimented with tactics and personnel, errors now. Why should we believe that there will not be more mistakes next summer? I can only see McClaren muddling through, as Sven-Göran Eriksson, his predecessor, did. McClaren will not be ruthless enough to drop out-of-form players. He will include stars in the squad, even if they are injured, even though that breeds doubt, as happened with Wayne Rooney in Germany last summer during the World Cup finals. The debate about David Beckham will drag on.

In the matches themselves, if England are winning, off comes a striker. Get your nose in front, then hang on. In other words, compromise your game plan and concede the initiative because you do not have enough self-belief. What else can we expect from a man who could not even bear to watch the end of the match in Tel Aviv on Saturday? That is like a doctor who cannot stand the sight of blood. What is he going to do if a match goes to penalties next summer, run to the toilet?

So the FA members should ask themselves: is this man a winner? Instead of a cosy chat with McClaren about how long the grass should be at England’s training camp in May, they should demand to know what his game plan is. Look for signs that he will put right next summer what has been wrong since he took over. Of course, McClaren will talk positively, as he always does, but there needs to be some vision behind the words. If not, it would be better in the long run if the FA gets shot of him now.

Especially when this tournament is up for grabs. The usual advantage enjoyed by host nations will not be a factor because Austria and Switzerland are not good enough. England are better than Holland, France are mediocre, Italy are beatable and Spain are inconsistent. The trophy is there for the taking, but not if McClaren is taking England there.

Assuming success tomorrow, the FA should immediately come to the brutal conclusion that England can win this tournament only if the head coach is replaced. And who could be found who knows the game inside out, who will have the courage to attack a tournament? McClaren’s assistant, Terry Venables. Given a free rein, he is the man. It would be bold and uncharacteristic for the FA to act so dramatically, but what is worse – a few days of drama now or yet another “unlucky” quarter-final exit next summer?